Failure Analysis
by DoctorH
Summary: In this Deep Space Nine novelette, a catastrophe thought to be impossible has occurred; Sisko, Dax and O'Brien are given the job of trying to find out what happened. The story is a mystery; not so much a "whodunit," but rather a "HOWdunit" and a "WHYdunit." The solution to the mystery is included.
1. Intro, Prologue, Chapter 1

**FAILURE ANALYSIS**

* * *

INTRODUCTION

Shortly after the space station Terok Nor became Deep Space Nine, the Bajoran Wormhole was discovered, which could serve as a passage to the Gamma Quadrant. It was not long before exploration of the Gamma Quadrant began.

The events described in this story pertain to a disaster occurring during one of the early exploratory missions to the Gamma Quadrant.

* * *

PROLOGUE

Stoan slipped out of his daytime attire and donned a comfortable robe. He entered a small chamber adjacent to his bedroom and made himself comfortable on the floor cushions. The lights in the room dimmed automatically. He began his meditation. As was Stoan's practice, he would meditate before taking his evening meal.

Stoan practiced daily meditation in part to cope with the daily difficulties of life on Earth. It was a time to mull over the events of the day, to extract what had been learned, to identify what needed to be done, to put all of the day's events into their proper places. Stoan did not apply the traditional Vulcan meditation techniques he'd learned in his youth, as he found traditional techniques to be too restrictive. He had developed his own techniques, and practiced them faithfully.

As he entered a state of enhanced mental clarity, his meditations first settled on a recurrent concern. Like most Vulcans living on Earth, Stoan found the planet to be a disturbing place. Most of those living on Earth were Humans, and Humans were difficult to understand. They were civilized, yes; but they were prone to act based upon the flimsiest of evidence and upon defective or corrupted reasoning.

His mindframe settled, he directed his thoughts to the events of the day. Stoan held a Chair in Advanced Engineering Studies at Starfleet Academy, and this semester, he taught a course in Advanced Safety System Design. Earlier today, his students presented their preliminary approaches to his third design problem, and he had offered his critiques. The problem pertained to designing a system that safely conveyed a hazardous liquid from a holding tank to a mixing receptacle, while meeting various constraints as to size, materials, moving parts, fluid variability, and system accessibility. Designing a successful system that could convey a fluid was a fairly simple matter, but designing a system that could convey a hazardous liquid was not quite so simple. In Stoan's problem, the system had to withstand a variety of disturbances, both natural and unnatural. Thus, the students not only had to design a system that could move the fluid, they had to design a system that was robust and safe even if things went horribly wrong. If any fluid should escape, students were told, sentient beings would die. In the laboratory, the deaths of these sentient beings would be hypothetical. But in the reality of the universe, system failures might result in actual, real, permanent deaths.

The students needed to understand that.

And they would understand it, for they were learning from the best teacher. Failure Analysis and Safety were Stoan's specialties. He was the foremost expert on those subjects in the Federation. As Stoan often reflected, to say he was the foremost expert was not a boast; _it was a statement of fact_.

Stoan remembered that, as a younger man, he had found the Vulcan Science Academy too dictatorial, and he and some friends had opted to further their education in Engineering by attending Starfleet Academy. Stoan found the Academy programs challenging, and he excelled. He took courses in Failure Analysis, which were widely recognized as some of the most difficult courses in the entire Academy. He completed the courses with a perfect score. No cadet had accomplished such a thing before, and no cadet has done such a thing since.

To say so was not a boast, Stoan reminded himself. _It was a statement of fact_.

When he became commissioned as an ensign, Stoan had been assigned as an assistant engineer on the USS _Josef Knoba_. Stoan believed that he had earned grades that justified a more prestigious assignment, but he accepted his assignment without complaint. The Chief Engineer of the _Josef Knoba_ , a Human named Lieutenant Commander Zhang, was a capable engineer, but Stoan knew he was better. Though Stoan was certain he had never said anything disrespectful to Zhang, Zhang entered in Stoan's fitness reports that Stoan had "continuing problems with attitude and demeanor." Such remarks, which in Stoan's view reflected more on the mindset of his superior officer and less on his own performance as an engineer, nevertheless impeded Stoan's chances for advancement. Stoan knew he was being treated unfairly, but he said nothing. He attained the rank of lieutenant, but his promotion came later than Stoan believed it should have. Stoan considered requesting a transfer.

Stoan recalled how he had been rescued from the _Josef Knoba_ by one of his former Academy professors. Tray Amblin was one of the Academy's civilian educators, and she had taught one of the Failure Analysis courses in which Stoan had excelled. She had been tasked by Starfleet to improve the safety systems used for particular transfer shuttles. There had been several system failures in recent years, resulting in numerous injuries and at least one death. Solving the problem of system safety was a challenging one, and Amblin felt she would be up to the challenge, if she could have the assistance of her brightest student, Stoan.

Stoan was not content in his position with the _Josef Knoba_ , and he earnestly wished to work with Amblin. Starfleet was reluctant to let Amblin have him, however. Some at Starfleet thought a compromise could be reached, in which Stoan would work for Amblin and would also covertly report on Amblin's progress on the project. This was a prospect that Stoan found distasteful. Rather than be a spy, Stoan resigned his commission as a Starfleet officer and went to work for Amblin as a civilian. It was an unusual action to take, and some in Starfleet complained mightily, but it worked out for the best. Amblin and Stoan designed the new safety system in a matter of weeks, simulated it, tested it, refined it and presented it to Starfleet for approval. Starfleet engineers tried to make the new system fail but could not. Thereafter, the new safety system was installed on nearly all of the ships in the fleet capable of receiving transfer shuttles.

The number of system failures dropped to zero.

For Stoan, this was just the beginning. He designed—or in some cases, _redesigned_ —safety systems for airlocks, radiation containment, transporters, weapon instrumentation, weapon management, prisoner safety, gravimetric pods, hatchways, environmental suits, and multi-phase energy diverters. Some of these he designed with Amblin, but most he designed himself. In one of his most famous accomplishments, he designed a new safety system for cleaning the residue traps that were present in some older warp drive engine systems. Previously, cleaning the residue traps was deemed "ultra-hazardous" and had to be done at a qualified starbase by trained Starfleet personnel using specialized equipment. After Stoan's safety system was in place, cleaning the residue traps was no longer "ultra-hazardous," and within a year it became "routine." His reputation as a safety engineer soared.

In his meditation, Stoan performed a calculation that he often performed. By making reasonable estimations and assumptions, he could conclude to a high degree of certainty that that his designs of safety systems had saved the lives of numerous sentient beings. In his present calculation, the number of sentient beings whose lives he had saved exceeded 75,000. These sentient beings would have perished, had his systems not been in place. To say so was not a boast; _it was a statement of fact_.

When Starfleet Academy offered Stoan a professorship in the Department of Engineering, Stoan accepted. He refused, however, to accept the title of "Professor." Although he was well-qualified in advanced studies, he likewise refused to accept the title of "Doctor," thinking such a title was best reserved for those who practiced the healing arts. Other the years, he earned the right to other titles, but he considered them to be inaccurate, pretentious, conflicting, or otherwise unnecessary. He insisted that his students address him as "Mister Stoan."

His classes were some of the most difficult in the Academy.

In addition to his work as a teacher, Stoan found time for occasional work on safety systems, usually for Starfleet operations. At the present time, he had no such ongoing projects. His work was exclusively focused upon his Advanced Safety System Design course. He was passing on his expertise to his students.

Stoan's mind turned briefly to the students of his who were Vulcans. In this semester, there were two. They of course knew how to pronounce his name correctly. The other students typically pronounced his name as "Stone." Stoan tolerated the mispronunciation, which was indeed very close to being the proper pronunciation, though still not strictly correct. He noted that most non-Vulcans seemed to lack the aural sensitivity needed to identify the subtle tonal distinctions, and he knew it would be a fruitless exercise to try to correct any mispronunciations.

Stoan's meditation had made his mind free of impediments to reasoning, and he turned his focus to the work his students had done. The students' approaches to the hazardous liquid problem varied. None of the approaches was foolhardy, yet none was foolproof. Stoan assessed the approach that seemed least likely to succeed as "posing numerous practical difficulties." He called the most impressive approach "promising."

All of his students were smart. But Stoan understood that mastering safety and failure analysis are not merely a matter of intelligence. A good safety system design has to account not just for accidents, but also for malice, for stupidity, for sabotage, for incompetence, for the expected and for the unexpected. Stoan tried to impress upon his students that system failure can come from so many sources. A designer must try to imagine all possible sources of failure, and then design the system to deal with them.

This was not an easy thing.

His Vulcan students seemed to have the most difficulty with it. For one thing, they had a hard time grasping why other beings might perform actions that were manifestly illogical, and why designs must account for nonsensical behavior. Their rational points of view could make them blind to scenarios that might be irrational or idiosyncratic.

Stoan was reminded that he had realized in his first days at the Academy was that there was a difference between _intelligence_ and _cleverness_. Intelligence involved knowledge, comprehension, organization of information, and ability to relate one fact to another. Cleverness was different. It involved innovation, an ability to look at things in new and unconventional ways, a propensity to see things that an intelligent observer might miss.

From his interaction with Humans, Stoan understood that _some fools could be quite clever_.

And so Stoan's students had been instructed to consider not only what was supposed to happen, but what foreseeably _could_ happen. If sentient beings acted intelligently and sensibly and carefully and skillfully all the time, many safety systems would be unnecessary. But sentient beings do not always act so, and it is up to a system designer to identify all the different ways in which things might go wrong.

And on this point, Stoan meditated nearly every day.

His mind was clear. His intellect was focused. His body was relaxed. Upon comparing the students' various proposed solutions to his problem, he concluded that most of them had done quite well. Indeed, some of the students had come up with ideas that seemed to be better than the ones he had developed himself.

Stoan began sorting in his mind through the ideas he'd heard during the day, separating the better from the more problematic, combining elements from one proposal with elements from another, when a tone sounded, indicating an incoming audio-visual message.

While Stoan was in meditation, incoming messages were supposed to be blocked.

 _Except in cases of emergency._

Stoan brought his consciousness out of mediation and ordered, "Open communication."

His eyes remained closed for the moment.

"Mister Stoan," said the caller. Stoan recognized the voice immediately. It belonged to one of the few Humans who would make an effort to pronounce his name correctly.

"Yes, Commissioner Young," replied Stoan, opening his eyes. Commissioner Lorna Young's unsmiling face was on a display in front of him.

"Please activate security on your end."

Stoan checked an indicator and touched a control pad. "My side of the conversation is now secure," he said. He noted that the security level on the conversation was at the highest level.

"We have received word of an accident aboard the USS _Observer_. The preliminary report is that one of the probes exploded while aboard the vessel. There are numerous fatalities."

Stoan was astonished, but his face did not show it. The _Observer_ was a specialized science survey ship for which Stoan had designed some of her most important safety systems. One of the goals of those safety systems, perhaps the most important goal, was the probes carried on the ship, though they could be explosive, ought not to explode in the proximity of living beings. Included within this goal was the objective that the probes carried on the ship should not explode while still inside the ship.

What Commissioner Young was telling him was that a system he had designed had failed catastrophically.

"Has this report been confirmed?" Stoan wanted to know.

"Not yet."

"Where did the explosion occur?"

"It occurred in the Gamma Quadrant. The ship has since returned to the Alpha Quadrant, however, and is currently near a Federation starbase, Starbase Deep Space Nine. We are told that all security, quarantine, confinement and preservation protocols are in place."

"Deep Space Nine is some distance away," Stoan commented. "It will take a considerable investment of time to assemble the Commission and to get there."

"Yes, it's a considerable journey. And there are several things we will need to do before we go there."

"Since it is extraordinarily unlikely that a probe exploded inside USS _Observer_ , we should wait for confirmation before beginning our investigation and departing for the starbase. Do you agree?"

"Yes," sighed Young. "But Mister Stoan, based upon what we've heard from the commander of the starbase, I think you should _expect_ that confirmation _will_ be forthcoming."

The Commissioner promised him that she would contact him when she had further information, and then the communication was terminated.

Stoan could not accept what he'd heard as factual. He had designed the safety systems aboard _Observer_ , and _Observer's_ sister ship, _Surveyor_ , himself. His mind had been well-ordered from his meditation, but this news had disrupted the clarity of his thinking. He could not conceive how a probe explosion could have occurred aboard _Observer_. There were a variety of safety systems to prevent that very occurrence. It was _unthinkable_ that they all could have failed.

Stoan had even designed the systems so that even if they did all fail, no explosion would occur.

Stoan considered returning to meditation, but found his mind to be too disturbed by unanswered questions to make further meditation productive. He computed the probability that confirmation could be forthcoming, as Commissioner Young had predicted, and found the probability to be negligible.

 _But what if the report_ were _confirmed?_ What if the news of an on-board explosion turned out to be true?

He would need more information. His mind could not reliably analyze the matter beyond that.

More likely than not, whatever information was obtained would show that the report from Deep Space Nine was in error. Stoan felt confident that it had to be in error. _It had to be._

* * *

CHAPTER 1

Benjamin Sisko, Commander of Deep Space Nine, was in Ops. He was reviewing resource quality readouts when Lieutenant Jadzia Dax reported, "Someone's coming through the wormhole."

"Is anyone scheduled?" Sisko asked, thinking that the answer ought to be in the negative.

"No one is scheduled." Dax checked a readout. "It might be the _Coronet_ , or the _Observer_. They're both expected back two days from now."

Sisko and Dax watched the Ops main display as the wormhole opened. The instant the wormhole opened, Dax's instruments came to life and her eyes went wide.

"Distress signal from that ship!"

The wormhole closed. A ship appeared in the blackness of space where the wormhole had been.

"Yellow alert," Sisko ordered. "What ship is that?"

"The _Observer_." Dax double-checked her sensors. "Verified, it's the _Observer_."

 _Oh, no, no, no,_ thought Sisko, instantly aware that what might happen next might be very serious. An immediate concern was that the residents of Deep Space Nine might react badly, knowing that _Observer_ was in trouble and heading closer to the station. He was also immediately mindful that what was about to happen might well be a serious interstellar incident.

" _Red alert!_ " Sisko barked. "Get Chief O'Brien up here, now! Alert Dr. Bashir!"

" _Observer_ is hailing us," Dax reported, and immediately a stressed but controlled voice filled Ops.

"This is the USS _Observer_ , Lieutenant Amy Pitts in command."

Sisko realized at once that if a lieutenant had taken command, then several higher-ranking officers must be unable to command. Whatever had happened, it was bad.

"Most of our crew is dead," Pitts's voice continued. "We have about twenty survivors."

Sisko shook when he realized that the crew of the _Observer_ was over a hundred.

"Pitts! What is your status?" Sisko put as much authority in in voice as he could.

"We have experienced an on-board explosion; one of our probes has exploded!"

 _No, no, no, not that,_ Sisko thought, and then he reminded himself not to jump to conclusions. _One thing at a time._ "Are any of your other probes in danger of exploding?"

"I don't know. It's supposed to be impossible for them to explode on board."

Dax piped up. "Benjamin, minimum safe distance under such circumstances is 4,000 kilometers. They're at 10,000 and closing, _fast_!" Dax's voice had a touch of urgency in it.

" _Observer_! Pitts!" Sisko called. "Come no closer to this station than 5,000 kilometers! Acknowledge!"

"Acknowledged. 5,000 kilometers."

Dax monitored the _Observer's_ moves. " _Observer_ is slowing." Sisko looked over Dax's shoulder to verify it.

"Holding at 5,000 kilometers from your position," Pitts reported.

" _Observer_ , stand by!" Sisko barked. "We'll beam your survivors over to our medical facilities."

"Julian reports he's ready to receive them," Dax said, just as Chief Miles O'Brien stepped off the lift and onto the floor of Ops. O'Brien tried to take in what was happening as he hurried to his post.

"Chief, I want you to handle this transport." Sisko pointed to the ship on the Ops display. "There are survivors on that ship. And we have been informed that there are many on that ship who did not survive. I want to you find all of the people with life signs and beam them to Dr. Bashir, immediately. _Only the survivors_ , clear?"

O'Brien acknowledged the order with "Aye, sir," and began to activate the transporter with his controls. "Good God, is that the _Observer_?" The shock on his face was extreme when he realized what ship he was scanning.

"Yes. They are keeping station at 5,000 kilometers."

O'Brien was looking at the ship on the main Ops display. He seemed to have been rendered speechless. Sisko saw O'Brien's distress and couldn't help feeling some of that same distress himself. But there were things that needed to be done.

"Chief?! _Get those people over here!_ "

"Aye, sir," O'Brien stammered, as he turned his attention to his instruments. "Sir, there are at least eighty people over there, dead. I've got sixteen survivors. Confirmed, sixteen individuals with life signs. Locking on. I'll transport them directly to the Infirmary."

"After you've transported the survivors," Sisko said, "I need to know this from you, Chief: Is the _Observer_ in a safe condition or not? They say they've had one of their probes explode. They've got other probes aboard. I want to know whether any of those other probes might be at risk of exploding."

Things happened quickly. O'Brien transported the survivors to Deep Space Nine, and immediately began sensor sweeps of _Observer_. He reported to Sisko that the probes _Observer_ carried appeared to be incapable of exploding. Sisko ordered confirmation that there was no risk of explosion, and he also ordered O'Brien to see whether he could confirm that the on-board explosion reported by Lieutenant Pitts was due to the detonation of a probe, as Pitts had said.

Sisko further ordered that the _Observer_ be quarantined and preserved for investigation. Effective immediately, no one was to beam anything on or off the vessel. As a precaution, drones would be deployed around the _Observer_ to scramble any transporter signals, to prevent anything from beaming onto or beaming off the ship. Deep Space Nine was placed under quarantine as well. All vessels approaching Deep Space Nine were to be directed away from the station, except in cases of emergency.

 _Observer_ was automatically holding its position 5,000 kilometers from the station, but Sisko directed Dax to have a tractor beam ready in the event that the relative positions of _Observer_ and Deep Space Nine changed.

Sisko also ordered Dax to hail the starship USS _Wild Rose_ , which had visited Deep Space Nine less than a day ago, and declare an emergency. When the _Wild Rose's_ captain asked about the nature of the emergency, Sisko explained that he needed someone to make sure _Observer_ remained under quarantine. Sisko assured the captain that his people had determined that there was no further risk of probe detonations. The captain was stunned, but agreed to return to Deep Space Nine and stand guard over _Observer_.

The _Observer_ , Sisko knew, was full of many secrets. Sisko was determined that neither _Observer_ , nor any of her secrets, was going to be stolen.

Word spread quickly around Deep Space Nine that the secretive USS _Observer_ had returned to the Alpha Quadrant two days early. _Observer_ had passed close by Deep Space Nine prior to her visit to the Gamma Quadrant, and at that time there had been some concern about a vessel having Upsilon Radiation-based devices approaching a starbase. Some residents of Deep Space Nine remembered that there had been a tragedy some years ago under somewhat similar circumstances, where many people had been exposed to Upsilon Radiation.

Fears about exposure had been allayed when _Observer_ made its first pass by Deep Space Nine, but this time they could not be allayed. When word spread that _Observer_ had suffered an explosion, the words "Upsilon Radiation" immediately came into play, and many aboard the station went into a state of panic.

Constable Odo found it difficult to maintain order aboard the station, but he and his personnel tried their best. It helped that, although the people aboard Deep Space Nine were agitated, they didn't want anything material and they were generally disinclined to acts of violence.

They simply wanted to be away from Deep Space Nine. They wanted to be evacuated, and evacuated now.

Sisko promptly amended his order that all vessels approaching Deep Space Nine were to be directed away. Emergency shuttles for evacuation to Bajor were permitted to come to the station.

Major Kira Nerys, Sisko's second-in-command, coordinated the evacuation efforts, working with the Bajoran authorities to bring the emergency shuttles to Deep Space Nine, to take away anyone who wanted to leave. Kira also arranged for relocation facilities to be set up on Bajor. The arrangement was hastily made and far less than ideal, but Kira thought it could be made to work, at least for a short time. Relocation was supposed to be temporary, and the Bajorans had supposedly run some drills and exercises addressing how Bajor would handle a rapid mass evacuation from Deep Space Nine.

With some exceptions, the station inhabitants that were in Starfleet were obliged to remain aboard the station; but all civilians were allowed to leave, and nearly all of them wanted to do just that. Families of Starfleet personnel were allowed to leave the station and find a safe place to stay, at least until this crisis was ended.

After the evacuation was well underway, Sisko made an announcement assuring the populace that the _Observer_ was holding station at a thousand kilometers more than the minimum safe distance, and there was no danger to the station. This assurance counted for almost nothing in the views of most civilians. The exodus continued.

Sisko understood their fears. He insisted that his son, Jake, evacuate with some of the other Starfleet families, just as a precaution. Jake resisted, but he also knew his father could not be dissuaded.

Sisko talked to Kira about going with the evacuees to help them get temporarily settled, to help maintain order, and to help them return to the station when the danger had passed. Kira agreed that was a good idea. Sisko cautioned Kira that the station would be quarantined, so those who chose to leave would not be allowed to return until there had been a resolution of the _Observer_ incident. He did not know how long that would be. Kira understood. She departed the station aboard one of the shuttles.

At Sisko's command, a secure message was dispatched to Commissioner Lorna Young, who headed the Commission on Specialized Planetary Studies, more commonly known as "the Commission." The Commission was the organization that oversaw the Gas Giant Mapping Project and that was responsible for the _Observer's_ science missions. Sisko knew little about the Commission, except that it was the only entity in the known galaxy authorized to use Upsilon Radiation, and that it kept a low profile, with most of its actions being shrouded in secrecy.

Sisko's message to Young was brief. It reported that, according to the officer who brought the _Observer_ back to the Alpha Quadrant, a probe had exploded on board. Sisko added that whether there actually had been a probe explosion on board was, at this time, unconfirmed. He wanted to include in the message only the things that he knew for certain, and not to include any speculation. Sisko reported that there were some survivors, and that they were receiving medical care, but that there were many dead still aboard _Observer_. He further reported that he had ordered that the _Observer_ be quarantined, and that a Federation ship was being called in to stand guard. He added that he had ordered that the _Observer's_ condition be fully preserved as in its current state, that the highest security protocols be implemented, and that the _Observer_ was to maintain its position 5,000 kilometers away from the station.

A short time later, he received a secure reply. Commissioner Young's message was brief. She requested sensor sweeps of the _Observer_ and also a report from the station's Chief Medical Officer as to the conditions of the survivors. She reminded him that all operations of the _Observer_ were classified, and therefore no personnel should be involved with the _Observer_ except for those having a high security clearance. Requests for such clearance would have to come through the Commission, she said.

Sisko groaned. The only one aboard Deep Space Nine he knew for certain had that level of clearance was himself. Dr. Bashir and Lieutenant Dax might also have clearance, or might be eligible to secure that level of clearance from the Commission, and probably Chief O'Brien could as well. They all had previous experience with secret Federation projects or operations. But there was no way the Commission would let Major Kira be involved with this, since she did not answer to Starfleet or to the Federation. It was just as well, Sisko thought, that she was attending to temporary relocation of station residents. Constable Odo would be staying aboard Deep Space Nine, but there was no way he'd be cleared to become involved with the _Observer_. For that matter, Sisko didn't know whether there were any other Starfleet officers under his command who might be able to obtain the requisite security clearance.

Sisko started to assemble the information that Commissioner Young requested. He spoke to Dr. Bashir first.

"How are the survivors?" Sisko asked.

Bashir was terse. "They're going to die within a matter of days. They've all received lethal doses of Upsilon Radiation."

"Are you sure?"

"Absolutely." Bashir's voice was icy. "No question about it, none at all. They are all in different stages of neural degeneration. The pattern is unique to Upsilon exposure."

"I see."

"And in all probability, there is nothing I can do about it."

"I understand. I know there is no known cure, no treatment."

Bashir scowled. "I doubt I'll be able to save their lives. But even worse, I very likely won't be able to relieve their suffering."

Sisko nodded. "I know. I know. Do the best you can."

From Bashir's demeanor, Sisko understood that Bashir's best would probably be futile.

Sisko then spoke to O'Brien. O'Brien actually had some positive news. "First, I can confirm that the _Observer_ is safe. It is _impossible_ for any of the other probes to blow up."

" _Impossible_? From the looks of it, _it's already happened at least once_!"

O'Brien understood the point. He reiterated his findings to emphasize his confidence: "I've verified the probes are now incapable of exploding, all of them. There is no chance that any of those probes could detonate. It is physically impossible. After the on-board explosion, all of the probes automatically broke their seals, and that basically turned the probes into hunks of junk. All of the potentially explosive components have been made non-volatile. The probes are designed to do that, I understand. Anyway, all of the volatile elements are now totally inert, and are permanently incapable of detonating. The _Observer_ has exactly seventy-nine probes in its storage vault, which I believe is called 'the Locker.' I've scanned them all. _Every single one_. All seventy-nine are incapable of exploding."

Sisko wasn't quite reassured. "I wasn't certain you'd be able to scan the probes."

"As I understand it, sir, the Locker is shielded from sensor scanning under normal circumstances, and the probes have some shielding of their own. But if the probes are neutralized, as they are now, the shielding is dropped or otherwise made ineffective. Presumably the purpose is to show that the probes are indeed safe, so we can be comfortable being in proximity."

Sisko thought there might be another purpose. Sisko thought he'd heard that one circumstance that would cause the probes to become inert would be an attack upon the _Observer_ by a hostile force. Anyone trying to disable the ship and steal a probe would find that the probe would be incapable of detonating, and therefore, useless. Dropping the shielding would show the attacker that the prizes were worthless and that there would be no point in pressing an attack to try to hijack them.

"Out of prudence, Chief, let's maintain the _Observer_ at 5,000 kilometers."

"Aye, sir." O'Brien cleared his throat. "I have some additional things to report, unpleasant things. I have identified the remains of at least ninety-four people over there. It is difficult to determine an exact number. I don't know what we plan to do about them."

"Leave them there."

O'Brien swallowed. "Aye, sir."

"They'll be taken care of, Chief."

"I understand, sir. If I may recommend, we can remotely lower the interior temperature of the _Observer_ to preserve their remains."

"Good idea. Do it."

"Aye, sir. Now, as for the explosion: there is no question that it took place in the _Observer's_ Probe Preparation Bay. This is the place where the probes are prepared in advance of launch. The Probe Preparation Bay is in the lower aft part of the ship, just forward of the Locker. It is a highly secure area, and its shielding is still in place, so I cannot scan inside of it, but all of the bulkheads and decks surrounding the Probe Prep Bay are deformed, consistent with the pressure associated with an explosion inside the Bay. Further, I have scanned the rest of the ship and find no explosive damage anywhere else. So it looks to me that there _was_ an explosion on board, and the explosion occurred inside the Bay."

Sisko was not surprised by that news. "That suggests very strongly that the thing that exploded was a probe." Sisko thought for a moment before speaking again. He decided O'Brien needed to know. "Dr. Bashir says that the surviving crew has been exposed to Upsilon Radiation."

O'Brien understood what this meant. "Then it _was_ a probe, for certain. One of these probes blew up on board and unleashed Upsilon Radiation on its crew, the poor devils."

"Yes. That is what it looks like."

"I thought that wasn't ever supposed to happen."

"It wasn't."

"I mean, sir," continued O'Brien, "it was supposed to be _impossible_ to happen."

Sisko sighed. "Maybe the word 'impossible' is a word we ought to avoid for a while. It was supposed to be impossible, but this accident did happen, so it clearly was _possible_."

"You're assuming it was an accident?" O'Brien wondered. "I'd be inclined to think that the explosion was intentional, caused deliberately. I've heard that there are _hundreds_ of safety systems surrounding Upsilon Radiation; and if that's the case, I don't see how something like this could just happen."

"Right now, I'm not assuming anything."

"Yes, sir. What's our next step?"

"I need your sensor sweeps of the _Observer_. I'll send them, along with Dr. Bashir's report, to Commissioner Young, and we'll see what she wants to do."


	2. Chapter 2

CHAPTER 2

Sisko, Dax and O'Brien sat in Sisko's office. Sisko touched a control panel to activate measures that would assure their conversation would be private.

"From this moment on," Sisko began, "we are all deemed to be cleared for confidential information, designated special level Gold. That's basically the same as Starfleet's third-highest security clearance. I trust I don't need to remind you of the consequences of breaking confidence. All communications related to the _Observer_ are to be secure. All reports we make are to be secure. Other than the three of us and Dr. Bashir, we talk to no one on this station about _Observer_. Fortunately, since the majority of inhabitants of the station have been evacuated, there is a reduced risk that we might let something slip."

"Not everybody has evacuated. Quark hasn't," said O'Brien, referring to purveyor of refreshment and entertainment on the station's Promenade.

"Oh? I thought he would be one of the first to leave." Sisko had spoken seriously, but as he heard his own remark, it sounded like a joke.

"No; and Quark says you can't make him leave, either. Personally, I think he's got his eyes on stealing one of the _Observer's_ probes and selling it on the black market. Thing won't detonate, and disassembling it won't show anyone how to generate Upsilon, but I expect Quark could nevertheless find a buyer."

Dax was concerned. "Could he actually do that? Steal one of the probes, I mean?"

O'Brien dismissed the concern with a wave. "Impossible."

Sisko flinched. "Chief: _impossible_?"

O'Brien turned red. "Yes, sir. Sorry. I meant that Quark would have a very, very difficult time trying. He can't beam anything on or off the _Observer_ , and he has no way to get to that ship. _Wild Rose_ is now on guard, and she won't let anything approach. And Odo is remaining on the station; he'll be watching Quark all of the time, I'm sure."

Sisko thought that, with most of the inhabitants temporarily evacuated, Constable Odo might devote nearly all of his time to watching Quark. But Odo couldn't be watching one hundred percent of the time. "We'll keep an eye on Quark, as well, and on everyone else who has chosen to remain aboard the station. Now. Here is where it stands. The Commission on Specialized Planetary Studies is coming to Deep Space Nine. The Commission is the agency in charge of the _Observer's_ Upsilon Radiation operations. The Commission will prepare a report of the incident for a Select Council of the Federation. The Commission, or at least, a quorum of the Commission, is expected to arrive here in about twelve days."

"Twelve days?" repeated O'Brien. "They're not exactly rushing to get here, are they?"

"According to Commissioner Young, they need to assemble the Commissioners and investigate some things before coming here. Twelve days may sound like a long time, but I think those days will go by before we know it, because we will be very busy. While we are waiting for the Commission, we have been formally given this assignment: we are to investigate the incident, and determine what happened, or at least, eliminate any avenues of investigation."

"We?" O'Brien wondered. "You mean, just the three of us?"

"Yes, and Dr. Bashir. But I expect he's going to be busy with other things."

"Why us?" Dax wondered. "Doesn't the Commission have people trained to deal with this sort of thing?"

"No, they don't. There is no incident investigation team. The Commission, quite literally, never thought anything like this would ever take place. News of the event has leaked out, however, and the Commission has stated publicly that the incident is in the process of being investigated. And since _we_ are _here_ , we have been selected to conduct an independent investigation."

"Has the Commission accepted that it was one of their probes that exploded?" Dax wanted to know.

Sisko took a moment before he could answer. "I think so, but officially, the Commission maintains that the cause of the explosion is unknown. The only cause the Commission has explicitly ruled out is that any alien interference was involved, saying that if there is any sign of any life forms in the vicinity, no probe operations would ever be conducted. Since probe operations were underway, there was almost certainly no outside interference, no act of war against _Observer_."

"Sir," O'Brien said, "how are we supposed to be able to investigate? Nearly everything _Observer_ did is classified. Assuming we can figure out what they did, we have no way of knowing what they were supposed to do, or whether it was contrary to established practices."

"Commissioner Young has made certain materials available to us. And we will have access to the crew of the _Surveyor_ , _Observer's_ sister ship. They can tell us some of the details of operations, and maybe give us some guidance as to how this whole thing may have happened. The _Surveyor_ , by the way, has been ordered to stand down until further notice."

"Can we talk to the survivors of the _Observer_?" Dax asked. "They might be even more helpful."

"Yes, you may talk to them; but don't expect them to be too helpful. According to Commissioner Young, none of the survivors was in any way involved with probe deployment. The only ones who know about probe operations are the eight members of the probe team, and there were no members of the probe team among the survivors."

"I'll download logs from the _Observer_ ," O'Brien said. "They ought to tell us a lot."

Sisko cleared his throat. "I hate to break this to you, Chief, but there probably aren't any logs to download."

" _What?_ "

"According to Commissioner Young, all logs and records pertaining to probe operations are stored in a protected data archive, for reasons of security. That data archive is located in the Probe Preparation Bay."

"What? Why?"

"The Bay is highly secure. I've been told that, if a probe exploded in the Bay, the data archive was almost certainly destroyed. We'll have access to the ship's general archive and logs, but those records probably won't tell us much."

O'Brien sighed, and then another thought occurred to him. "It might be that the probe that exploded was defective. Are we permitted to contact the people who manufactured or assembled it?"

Sisko shook his head. "No. I asked Commissioner Young that very thing. She said the Commission itself would, before coming here, check into all aspects of materials and assembly and quality control. She said we are not to concern ourselves about those things. The Commission will also examine all of the probes aboard the _Surveyor_ , to determine whether there is some systemic defect in them. The Commission will let us know what they find, probably."

" _Probably?_ " O'Brien muttered. "This Commission is going to decide for us what evidence we can and cannot have? If so, this is going to be a difficult 'independent' investigation."

Sisko nodded. "We have the _Surveyor_ probe team as a resource, and whatever we can glean from the _Observer_ herself, and the materials that Commissioner Young will send us. And if there's anything else we need, we can ask for it." Sisko paused. "That said, I think we ought to recognize that our requests for additional information will likely be denied. Our security clearance is high, but most of the information about _Observer's_ probe operations is classified at an even higher level. If we ask for any confidential information that is above our clearance level, that confidential information will be released to us only if we have a _'need to know.'_ I suspect that the Commission will think that there are a lot of things that we don't need to know."

"How can they expect us to do our job, then?" O'Brien demanded.

Sisko didn't know how to answer that. "Here is what I propose. We should all do as much background work on Upsilon Radiation and the _Observer_ as we can, before we talk to the _Surveyor_ people and go over the materials that the Commissioner gives us. Then we'll see where we are. I expect that I'll have the two of you learn whatever you can from the _Observer_. Document everything, look for anything that might be out of place, no matter how insignificant. Meanwhile, I will be going over the personnel records. Maybe one of the people who worked with the probes had a grudge or dispute of some kind, or had reason to be depressed."

"I find it hard to believe that someone would kill all of his or her shipmates because of a grudge," Dax said.

"It's a long shot," Sisko agreed. "But I have to check. So, there's our work for the next day or so. Let's all get up to speed on the technology, then see whether we can help the Commission understand what happened."


	3. Chapter 3

CHAPTER 3

Sisko was surprised to find how much information about Upsilon Radiation was unclassified. It was more than he expected.

Sisko opened a file called "Overview," and found the history broken into several sections: _Theory and Forms of Upsilon Radiation_ ; _First Experiments with Upsilon Radiation_ ; _Malicious Use of Upsilon Radiation_ ; _The Interstellar Convention on Upsilon Radiation_ ; _Theory of Gas Giant Mapping_ ; and _The Use of Upsilon Radiation in the Gas Giant Mapping Project_.

Sisko started right in on _Theory and Forms of Upsilon Radiation_.

The history of Upsilon Radiation extended back nearly a hundred years. Its history began, not with it being discovered, but with it being hypothesized by a physicist named Yahm. He originally called it Yahm Radiation, then later called it Upsilon Radiation. It did not escape attention that the uppercase Greek letter upsilon is the same as the uppercase letter "Y," the first letter in Yahm's name.

According to Dr. Yahm's hypothesis, Upsilon Radiation would be unlike conventional radiation, which was fundamentally based in electromagnetic or particulate phenomena, or both. Upsilon Radiation would have an electromagnetic component and a particulate component, but also a gravimetric component, a sub-dimensional component and a super-dimensional component. The components would interact with each other in complex ways.

There followed a discussion of the mathematical modeling of the theorized phenomenon. Sisko found that the theoretical models were far too complicated for him to understand, so he skipped over that material. What was clear was that, technically speaking, Upsilon Radiation was not really radiation; or rather, it was more than _just_ radiation.

As far as Sisko could tell, the theoretical models predicted how Upsilon Radiation would be expected to behave and what properties it ought to have, but did not describe how to generate it. The literature declared that generating Upsilon Radiation was difficult to do, and that the techniques for doing it were some of the most guarded secrets in the galaxy.

Considering that Upsilon Radiation has a terrifying reputation for being extraordinarily harmful, Sisko was astonished to learn that most Upsilon Radiation is harmless. The farther a life form is from the generating source of the Upsilon Radiation, the more harmless the Upsilon Radiation is to that life form. After the Upsilon Radiation has traveled about twelve hundred to three thousand kilometers from its source, the Upsilon Radiation is called type-four, and poses no known health threat. After the Upsilon Radiation has traveled another thirty to forty thousand kilometers or so, it degenerates to type-five, which is also harmless. And after the Upsilon Radiation has traveled over a million kilometers or so, it becomes "fully decoupled" and degenerates into conventional electromagnetic and gravitational waves, where it gets lost in the background radiation of the galaxy.

Before Upsilon Radiation can become harmless, however, it assumes some forms that are very harmful to organic life. Upsilon Radiation is formed in a small explosion occurring under specialized conditions. The site of the explosion is usually called "the blast source," or more simply, "the source." The force of the blast is not very powerful in itself; most of the harmfulness comes not from the blast, but from the Upsilon Radiation that is thereby generated and radiates from it.

When Upsilon Radiation is first generated, it is called type-zero, or "fully coupled." Almost immediately, less than ten centimeters from the source, the type-zero Upsilon Radiation degenerates to type-one. Type-one radiation extends about two to four meters away from the source, where it degenerates to type-two. Then, after another twenty-five to eighty meters or so, it degenerates to type-three.

Type-three is widely regarded as the worst for living beings.

Types-zero, -one and –two are all fatal. The people inside the Probe Preparation Bay were probably blasted with type-one, and the organic material of their bodies would have been vaporized even before the force of the blast reached them. Those outside the Probe Preparation Bay would have received a dose mostly of type-two, and most of them would have died without knowing what hit them.

But those who survived almost certainly absorbed a dose of type-three.

Type-three Upsilon Radiation wreaks havoc on living systems that use ion-exchange biochemistry. Living tissue having sugar-based biochemistry for protein synthesis is especially vulnerable. Organic material is affected at the quantum, sub-atomic, atomic and molecular levels, which all add up to this: a living being receiving type-three exposure will die from that exposure, but the living being will not die immediately. Rather, the living being's various physiological systems will start to degrade irreversibly. In most Humans, the nervous system and the cardiac system were most vulnerable to Upsilon exposure, though the nervous system degrades significantly faster. As a person's nervous system degrades, the person begins to experience increasing levels of discomfort, then pain. The pain eventually turns to agony, supposedly comparable to being burned by fire or being immersed in acid. Beyond a certain level of nervous system degradation, there is no way to stop the pain, except for the person's death.

Which usually follows in a matter of days.

There is no effective treatment. There is no cure.

Moving on to _First Experiments with Upsilon Radiation_ , Sisko learned that, when Upsilon Radiation was first theorized, it was treated as a curiosity of physics. If the theoretical models were correct, Upsilon Radiation would likely be extremely hazardous close to the source of generation, but would fade to safe levels fairly quickly. There would be very few ways of generating it completely safely, assuming it could be generated at all. Nevertheless, some physicists set out to study the phenomenon, and explored ways by which it might be generated. Their work was deemed highly secret, considering the potential military applications of the phenomenon.

They succeeded in finding a way to generate Upsilon Radiation.

Their success killed them, but not before it caused them to experience unimaginable agony.

The physicists thought they had protected themselves by housing themselves in a shielded spaceship, orbiting a lifeless planet. They generated the Upsilon Radiation remotely by exploding a specially constructed device on the surface of the planet. At the time they generated the Upsilon Radiation, they were about 1,700 kilometers away.

The shielding and distance did not protect them, although it took a few days before they became aware of the effects of the exposure. When they started experiencing growing pain, they sent out frantic distress calls for medical aid. Rescuers arrived within hours, but were unable to stop the physicists' suffering and deaths.

Even more tragically, the Upsilon Radiation the physicists had generated killed not only the physicists themselves, but also others aboard the spaceship. Those others included members of their families, along with spaceship crew, research staff and support personnel. Rescuers witnessed these people suffering horribly for days, before dying. The rescuers tried numerous medications and therapies to relieve the extreme suffering, but they all failed.

Reports of the event horrified the public.

The horror amplified when it was learned that the physicists had actually constructed eight more Upsilon Radiation devices, and four of them had mysteriously gone missing.

It was with this frightening fact that the section on _Malicious Use of Upsilon Radiation_ began.

Some years after the disaster that claims the lives of the physicists and their companions, a crazed despot used an Upsilon Radiation device to put down a rebellion. About four years after that, an unidentified spacecraft exploded as it approached the recently-declared-independent Plett Colony, irradiating 30,000 people and eventually killing everyone in the Colony. And then a few months after that, a terrorist detonated an Upsilon Radiation device near a Starfleet installation. All three incidents resulted in tens of thousands of civilian deaths, and the reports of the victims' suffering were ghastly.

Sisko skipped over some of the details of the suffering and the unsuccessful efforts to save the victims. The details were too horrifying and too sad.

It was presumed that these three incidents were caused by three of the missing devices, obtained from black marketers. There were reports that the only other missing device had been re-captured before it could be used, although these reports were greeted with skepticism. Fear of Upsilon Radiation remained high.

Sisko moved on to the next section, which discussed _The Interstellar Convention on Upsilon Radiation_.

The terror caused by malicious use of Upsilon Radiation moved politicians to act. In a major diplomatic initiative involving nearly every member of the United Federation of Planets, the generation of Upsilon Radiation was declared illegal. From a military standpoint, an Upsilon Radiation-based weapon would have no practical use. For one thing, despite its ability to penetrate shielding, its range was quite limited. For another thing, it would have no independent utility. An Upsilon Radiation-based device could not be used to cut inanimate matter, like a phaser could; an Upsilon Radiation-based device could not defensively interfere with other weaponry, in the way a conventional disrupter might do; an Upsilon Radiation-based device could not be used against large-scale military infrastructure or installations, in the way a torpedo could be used.

An Upsilon Radiation-based device could have only one use, namely, to torture living beings to death.

And so, by interstellar Convention, all devices that generated or used Upsilon Radiation were to be seized and destroyed. The techniques for generating Upsilon Radiation, which were already secret, were to remain secret. The use of Upsilon Radiation was banned, on the grounds that Upsilon Radiation had no known useful function.

Until someone discovered that Upsilon Radiation could actually be useful for mapping gas giant planets. So began the section on _Theory of Gas Giant Mapping_.

It had long been known that some gas giants could produce storms that generated subspace resonance. The storms themselves were usually localized and short-lived, but the subspace resonance generated by the storms could seriously interfere with navigation and interstellar travel. Few gas giants generated storms, but those that did could disrupt transportation throughout their solar systems and well beyond.

A few decades ago, a team of planetary scientists proposed a model that would explain why some gas giants generated storms and some did not. The model further offered a method for prediction when the storms would appear and how severe they would be. There was a practical problem, however: gas giants showed considerable variety, and in order to apply the model to a particular planet, it would necessary to obtain data about the planetary interior while the planet was undergoing a process called "deep inversion." With scans of the planet's interior during deep inversion, it would be possible to use that data in the model to predict how this particular planet would behave.

Conventional scans could not penetrate planetary interiors during periods of deep inversion, so getting the data needed for the model was difficult. Conventional scans could determine that a deep inversion was occurring, but could not reliably determine what was happening inside of that deep inversion.

Then someone proposed using Upsilon Radiation to make the scans. In theory, types-four and –five were sufficiently penetrative and their resonance signatures would carry the needed data. And types-four and –five Upsilon Radiation were non-lethal.

But the only known way to generate types-four and –five was to generate all the lethal forms of Upsilon Radiation first. And doing so was contrary to the Convention.

After some political maneuvering, the Gas Giant Mapping Project was proposed. In this Project, a specialized Starfleet science vessel would use Upsilon Radiation-based probes to make measurements of gas giants undergoing deep inversion. The science vessel would launch a probe into the gas giant's atmosphere. The science vessel would then position itself so that the planetary interior was between itself and the probe. When the probe detonated, Upsilon Radiation would be generated, and this Upsilon Radiation would be detected by the science vessel. All of the detected radiation would be type-four or type-five, which would be safe to living things.

It was estimated that typically between twenty and fifty such detonations would have to take place in order to map the interior of a typical gas giant.

The mapping would have to occur during deep inversion, however, and the time window in which deep inversion occurred was sometimes quite brief.

Sisko saw he was coming to the end of the "Overview" file. The only remaining topic was _The Use of Upsilon Radiation in the Gas Giant Mapping Project_.

The Gas Giant Mapping Project received extraordinary praise when it was first proposed, but also received some damning criticism. The most serious objections pertained to how the Project would be in violation of the intergalactic Convention prohibiting the generation of Upsilon Radiation.

Under the terms of the Convention, no one was allowed to generate Upsilon Radiation at all, under any circumstances. Those favoring the Gas Giant Mapping Project responded that this prohibition assumed that all such generations were harmful and of no social or scientific value. Mapping gas giants, they argued, was a valuable use of Upsilon Radiation and ought not to be included in the prohibition.

Some objectors argued that there might be multi-cellular sentient life living in the atmospheres of the gas giants. Using Upsilon Radiation to map an inhabited planet, they argued, might result in mass murder. Those in favor of the Gas Giant Mapping Project responded that so far no one had ever discovered a gas giant in which such life forms were known to exist. And in any event, a gas giant having such life could simply be left alone.

A much greater concern was that terrorists or despots other bad actors might hijack probes and use them as instruments of terror or intimidation or coercion, as had been done in the past. Or there might simply be accidents, which would in their nature be horrid. Proponents of the Project argued that it ought to be possible to secure against piracy and against unauthorized detonations, whether intentional or accidental.

The Commission was created to determine whether these concerns could be satisfactorily addressed.

The Commission brought its challenge to the legendary Vulcan designer of safety systems, known as Stoan. If Stoan could design a system that would prevent all unauthorized detonations of the probes, and that could protect all sentient living things from exposure, then perhaps the Project would be allowed to go forward.

Stoan worked on his design for nearly a year, refining it and accounting for every variable that he could imagine. He consulted with numerous experts about potential hazards, and made certain his system could handle every single one. His final system was elaborate, but very thorough. He created a simulation to demonstrate his safety systems to the Commission, and invited the Commission to try to defeat his systems in any way they could. Stoan also devised a computerized simulator that would try to defeat his systems.

No one, not being nor machine, could cause a probe to detonate anywhere except in the interior of a gas giant.

It was on the strength of Stoan's safety system that the Gas Giant Mapping Project was approved. To monitor the Project and to assure the robustness of his designs, Stoan was appointed to the Commission, though he rejected the title of Commissioner.

According to the Commission's charter, the Commission was responsible for oversight of the Project in general, as well as all facilities for assembling and transporting the probes. All technology related to the generation of Upsilon Radiation would continue to be top secret. Probes would be handled according to the strictest procedures. In addition, any Starfleet personnel who would work with the probes would be subject to the highest scrutiny and would have to be up to the highest standards and all would personally have to be approved by the Commission.

Eventually it was decided to commission two science vessels to map the planets. The _Surveyor_ was commissioned first, and immediately went to work confirming that gas giants could indeed be mapped using Upsilon Radiation. It turned out that the probes worked almost exactly as the physical theories said they were supposed to work, and the mappings indeed could be done. In a major test of the techniques, a particularly troublesome gas giant in the Tullis star system was successfully mapped, and its storms became predictable with astonishing accuracy. The subspace resonance events thereby became predictable as well, and readily avoidable. The viability of the Gas Giant Mapping Project was proven.

The _Observer_ was commissioned shortly thereafter.

With no shortage of gas giants in the galaxy, both ships went to work mapping gas giants that showed signs of undergoing deep inversion.

In the years that followed, there had been thousands of uses of Upsilon Radiation to map gas giants, without a single recorded fatality of any advanced species. No probe had _ever_ exploded anywhere except deep in the atmosphere of a gas giant. There had _never_ been any unintentional or accidental or unauthorized detonation of any probe anywhere else.

 _Until now,_ Sisko thought.

Sisko reached the end of the "Overview" file and paused before starting a new file. He tried to let the information settle into his head. Not long after the wormhole to the Gamma Quadrant had been discovered, _Observer_ had been dispatched to map a gas giant on the far side of the wormhole. Curiously, _Surveyor_ had actually been in closer proximity to Deep Space Nine than was _Observer_ , but _Observer_ got the assignment anyway. Somehow, in the Gamma Quadrant, one of _Observer's_ probes had detonated while still inside the ship. This was not supposed to happen, and the most accomplished safety expert in the galaxy had designed systems so that it wouldn't happen. But it _had_ happened all the same.

The information Sisko had just read was useful as background information, but it didn't really help answer any of the questions he really wanted to know. _How did this vaunted safety system actually work?_ He'd need to know that, if he had any hope of understanding how it might have failed.

Also missing from the material were the routine details about probe-related procedures, as well as information about _Observer's_ previous missions. He'd need to know those things as well, if he was going to understand what had gone wrong on this particular mission in the Gamma Quadrant.

Sisko opened the next file and found a shortened version of what he had just read. There was nothing new in that file. The next file was about the mathematical models used to predict the behavior of gas giants, and a highly technical explanation of what happened to a gas giant during deep inversion; it included no information about the probes. The next file was likewise unhelpful. Sisko frowned. There were a few other files there, but they were unclassified as well, and their titles suggested that they weren't all that pertinent. He doubted there would be anything in there that would help with his investigation. In order to make progress, he'd have to delve into the classified materials that the Commission had sent him.

But right now, he was just too tired. He decided to get some sleep.

At his meeting with Dax and O'Brien eight hours later, he mentioned that he hadn't been able to figure out any of the details of the safety systems designed by this Stoan fellow.

"Really?" O'Brien was surprised. "Didn't you see the demonstration file? It showed a lot of the details of the safety features."

It was Sisko's turn to be surprised. "I must have missed that one."

"I missed it, too," Dax said.

O'Brien chuckled. "I almost missed it myself. It was entitled 'Summary' or something like that. Except it isn't a summary, it's a demonstration of the safety features, presumably to show everyone in the universe how safe these probes supposedly are. You get to see how to prepare a probe for launch. It's hard to see what's going on with a small display, though. It would probably be easier if we ran it as simulation on one of Quark's holosuites."

"Out of the question. The holosuites are not secure enough for a matter at this level of confidentiality."

O'Brien chuckled again. "Well, number one, I can make them secure enough, so that Quark wouldn't be able to record or snoop or interfere. And number two, the demonstration is not classified, so we don't need to worry about confidentiality, at least not yet."

Sisko's eyebrows went up. He had thought all detailed information about probe preparation would surely be classified. "Chief," Sisko said, "make a holosuite secure. When it's secure, let's have a demonstration about what _should_ have happened inside that Probe Prep Bay."


	4. Chapter 4

CHAPTER 4

The last previous mass Upsilon Radiation exposure had occurred eighteen years ago. A terrorist ostensibly trying to prevent the expansion of Federation influence had detonated an Upsilon Radiation device near an orbiting Starfleet installation. Medical assistance arrived at the installation within hours, but all efforts to save the exposed personnel were in vain.

Dr. Julian Bashir reviewed the records of the attempted treatments. Most of the attempted treatments were conventional, but some were radical, and the some of the most radical treatments bordered upon being gruesome. The list of techniques and medicines that that been tried was a long one. Opiates, therapeutic viruses, stabilizing irradiation, local and general anesthetics, interruptive stimulation, fluid immersion, combinations of analgesics, induced coma, various forms of surgical intervention, and numerous other techniques for addressing pain had been tried. Some of the treatments had been effective in the early stages of nerve degradation. But for the later stages, the results were troubling. All treatments had failed.

Some of the treatments were bigger failures than others, as they actually made the patients' suffering much worse. A few treatments actually caused the patients' deaths.

Reports about treatments tried in other cases of mass exposure were less detailed, but were equally discouraging.

Sixteen members of the crew of USS _Observer_ had arrived in Deep Space Nine's Infirmary. Within an hour, four of them had died. Bashir had "followed the book," ordering conventional treatments for them, none of which did any good at all.

Bashir focused on efforts to help the remaining twelve survivors. These twelve survivors were in the early stages of exposure, and only two of them were symptomatic so far. The reports were clear that the most effective treatment in early stages was Dyneuryllin, specifically Grade Orange Dyneuryllin. Regular Dyneuryllin, also known as Grade Blue, was far less potent and far less effective; the boosters included in Grade Orange were shown to bring greater relief to patients and to bring that relief significantly faster. The reports cautioned, however, that Grade Orange Dyneuryllin could not be replicated on an "as needed" basis. The Dyneuryllin needed to "settle" for at least an hour after replication. After it settled, it would remain potent for several days.

Bashir ordered that two hundred fifty doses of Grade Orange Dyneuryllin be replicated. He hoped he would not need that many, but the reports indicated that it was far better to have too much than not to have enough.

Bashir gathered the remaining twelve survivors. He told them that they had been exposed to Upsilon Radiation, and that the exposure would very likely take their lives in a matter of days. The survivors were unsurprised to hear this news. Some sniffled quietly but most took this news with stiff upper lips.

He further told them that they would soon start to experience pain from the exposure. In the early stages, the pain would be manageable. He also told them that there would come a time when the medication would no longer have any effect. The exposure to Upsilon Radiation would hurt. It would be very, very painful. As their nervous systems failed, the pain would become much, much worse. It would become intense, even excruciating.

The twelve took this news bravely, too. Having served aboard a ship that was authorized to use Upsilon Radiation, they knew what Upsilon Radiation was and what it could do to a living body. None of what Bashir said was a revelation to them.

Bashir promised each of them that he would make them as comfortable as he could, and that he would do everything in his power.

Although it gave him grave discomfort to say so, Bashir also told them that, in all likelihood, there would be nothing he could do to stop what was going to occur.

He pledged to each of them, however, that he would give his best efforts, and that he would answer every inquiry they had with full honesty.

At that time, all of his patients were lucid. Bashir requested from each of his patients permission to test any and all medications and treatments to see if the effects of Upsilon Radiation exposure could be addressed in any way. Perhaps the effects could not be stopped or cured, perhaps they could be delayed or reduced. Would the twelve remaining survivors grant their consent to be test subjects for experimental treatments, which may or may not help themselves, but which might help future patients?

All of the patients gave their permission. Their consents were duly recorded.

Less than two hours later, Lieutenant Moses Ishcid and Ensign Kimberly Gunderson reported burning pain in their limbs and lower backs. Bashir administered Dyneuryllin, which had previously been effective in eliminating the discomfort.

This time, however, the Dyneuryllin injections were ineffective. This meant that Ishcid and Gunderson were entering the final, most excruciating phase of Upsilon Radiation exposure.

It was as Bashir had thought it would be: Ishcid and Gunderson had been closer to the Probe Preparation Bay than the other survivors, so they had received trace doses of type-two exposure, along with doses of type-three. Bashir had expected that they would enter the final stage, and die, sooner than the others.

Bashir ordered Ishcid and Gunderson to be placed in isolated wards. He ordered them to be held in flexible restraints and that the wards be sealed so that his patients' screams would not be heard by any of the other patients.

Bashir intensified his efforts to find something that might afford relief. He had decided not to try those medicines and treatments that had already been tried on others and that had been shown not to work. In the past eighteen years, there had been some advancement made with respect to nerve damage and cell degradation, and some intriguing research with respect to treatment of severe pain. Even so, the progress in knowledge was marginal. There were no obvious breakthroughs. Nevertheless, Bashir decided to start with medicines and treatments that had been developed in the last eighteen years.

He tried some on Ishcid and others on Gunderson. None of them halted the progress of nerve degradation or relieved any pain.

Bashir decided to try an extreme approach that, as far as he could determine, had never been tried: a mixture of a military nerve agent, delivered in a vehicle of ethyl alcohol. He hoped that the mixture might interrupt transmission of nerve impulses, which might affect the brain's perception of pain.

He prepared a mixture using a high yet non-lethal concentration of nerve agent. He subjected the mixture to a tissue test. The tissue test showed that the mixture was disruptive to cell activity but not overly disruptive. It clearly was not toxic, which was another point in its favor. The tissue test further confirmed that the alcohol vehicle would be effective in taking the agent where it needed to go.

Further tests and simulations seemed even more promising, indicating disruptions of pain pathways could be affected while other nervous system activity would be less impaired.

The tests and simulations predicted some shortcomings, however. For one thing, a patient would experience the effects of intoxication. For another, the patient could experience a loss of normal sensation, possibly a loss of proprioception or a feeling of paralysis. Liver and kidney functions would likely be impaired. Perhaps most troubling was that the tests were unclear as to whether there might be a positive effect on the degradation of the nervous system. In other words, although there were indications that the mixture might slow the effects of exposure, there was no indication that the mixture would reverse them.

Nevertheless, Bashir was somewhat excited about the prospects of his discovery. At the very least, he judged the mixture to be worth a try.

Bashir prepared a hypo. He administered a dose of the alcohol-based nerve agent to Gunderson, who almost immediately went into convulsions. Gunderson's pain levels also jumped alarmingly, and then her heart stopped. With considerable difficulty, Bashir restarted her heart and stabilized her.

The elixir that he thought might have the best chance of helping his patient had nearly killed his patient.

Bashir made an official note that this mixture was ineffective, and he made certain all the details had been duly recorded. He added some comments, saying that the cardiac issues were unexpected, but they could be addressed. Of greater concern was that a treatment that ought to reduce pain had actually multiplied it. Such paradoxical results had been observed before, in other situations; but those other situations had various explanations, and none of those explanations could be mapped to this case.

Bashir felt he owed it to his patients to tell them about the results of his efforts. He decided not to discuss the details of Gunderson's experience.

He also thought it best not to say that he was running out of ideas.

Each of the survivors from the _Observer_ had a private room near the Infirmary. Dr. Bashir looked in on one of the rooms and found it empty. He checked another room and found it empty as well. When he poked his head into the room of Lieutenant Pitts, he found her along with nine of her shipmates. They were conversing and laughing, but stopped when Bashir entered the room.

Bashir wondered what was funny, but he didn't feel right asking. So he said, "Sorry for intruding. Hello, everyone. Amy. All right if I come in?"

"Sure, Doctor," Pitts said. "We were just sharing a little gallows humor amongst ourselves."

That explained the laughing, Bashir thought. "How are you feeling?"

"Fine," said Pitts.

"And everyone else?" Bashir scanned the room. "Any discomfort?"

Everyone else nodded that they too were fine.

"How are Mose and Kimberly doing?" Pitts wanted to know.

Dr. Bashir lowered his eyes momentarily. "Not well, I'm afraid."

An ensign named Foster nodded. "We know. We can hear them."

Bashir was simultaneously surprised and embarrassed. Moses Ishcid and Kimberly Gunderson were in states of unspeakable agony. They wailed uncontrollably, and Bashir had hoped that the soundproofing of their wards would prevent the other survivors from hearing their cries.

But apparently their cries could be heard all the same.

An ensign named Holly spoke up. "Doctor, is anything you're doing for them working?"

"Nothing _so far_ has been effective." Bashir put a little extra emphasis on the words "so far," to show that he had not given up all hope. "I will keep trying."

Holly spoke again: "What is happening to Mose and Kimberly: is that the end that awaits us?"

Bashir remembered his promise to answer all questions honestly. "Yes. I think that is likely."

Tears welled in Holly's eyes. "I don't want to die that way!"

She was joined by her shipmates, all of whom said that they did not want to die that way, either.

Bashir wanted to tell them that he would continue to work on a treatment, and that they should not give up hope. But he knew that the chances of him curing Upsilon Radiation sickness were next to nil, and he could not bring himself to give his patients what he believed to be false hope.

Instead, he said: "You're not dead yet, none of you. Have you all sent messages to your families, your friends, your loved ones? Have you? _Do that!_ Let them know that you care about them. It's important."

He looked at the faces of the _Observer_ survivors. They had been laughing when he came into the room, but now there were tears in every eye. These ten patients were afraid of what was to come, and with reason. Bashir felt his own throat tighten.

"Tell your loved ones how you feel, focus on that!" Bashir wagged a finger. " _No gallows humor!_ Just tell them how you feel about them. I'll check on you in a short while."

And with that, he left the room and immediately felt his own emotions rising. There was burning in his eyes. He could not accept that there was no way to help these people. _But how could he help them?_


	5. Chapter 5

CHAPTER 5

"Run simulation 'Summary,'" O'Brien ordered the holosuite.

"Program complete," responded the holosuite's voice. "Enter when ready."

The door of the suite opened. Dax and O'Brien waited for Sisko to enter, but first Sisko had to know something.

"You're sure Quark can't eavesdrop?"

"Quite sure." O'Brien smirked. "I've even set things up so that if he even explores the possibility of eavesdropping, we'd know about it."

Dax was skeptical. "I don't know, Quark can be pretty clever."

"And _I'm not_?" O'Brien smiled.

Sisko was reassured. He stepped into the holosuite. Dax and O'Brien followed, and the holosuite door closed behind them, then vanished.

They were standing in a starship corridor, facing a formidable door.

"This is the door to the Probe Preparation Bay," O'Brien announced. "Above the door is a medical scanner that checks you to be sure you are who you purport to be. It checks your DNA, your brain wave patterns, your fingerprints, and probably a few other things as well. If you aren't an authorized person, a member of the probe team, you can't get in."

"So how do we get in?" Dax wondered.

"In this simulation, we're all authorized persons. We go in one at a time. Remember, there will be three of us in there, though there are usually only supposed to be two, so things might be a little cramped." O'Brien stepped up to the door. "Miles O'Brien," he announced, and the door opened for him. O'Brien stepped through and the door closed.

Sisko announced his name and he too was admitted. Sisko saw that the entrance was actually a combination outer door and inner door. Once he stepped through the outer door, it closed, and an inner door promptly opened to admit him to the brightly lit Bay. Moments later, Sisko, Dax and O'Brien were standing in the Bay.

Sisko saw that the Bay was indeed cramped. There was room to move around, but not much. The only places to sit were jump seats mounted in the bulkheads. Various pieces of equipment and instruments lined the walls, some apparently permanently mounted in place. There were displays and tools in various locations. Sisko saw against one wall a boxy console that appeared to be a standard cargo scanner. The biggest obstacle in the Bay was a sturdy table in the center.

Sisko saw a structure on one wall that resembled a meter-long slot. A similar slot-like structure was present on another wall, and yet another similar structure was present on a third wall. Sisko wondered about the purpose of these slots.

"All right, this is the Probe Prep Bay," O'Brien began. "Here in the center is what they call 'the bench'; it is where the probe is prepared for launch."

"So all we need is a probe," Dax said.

"First, we need to receive authorization from the captain to access the Locker," O'Brien answered. "The Locker is just as secure as this Bay, in some ways, even more secure. Probes are loaded into and unloaded from the Locker by automation. No personnel are allowed inside the Locker, ever. Any attempt by anyone to break into the Locker will result in all probe seals breaking, and then the probes become utterly useless."

"What does 'seals breaking' mean?" Dax asked. "I didn't see anything about that in the materials that I read."

"There's a little bit about it in our library computer," O'Brien said. "Basically, a probe can self-destruct under certain conditions. It self-destructs _non_ -explosively. Self-destruct can be triggered automatically or by express command. There are various sealed compounds inside each probe, and if those seals break, the compounds get released and much of the interior of the probe gets, well, scrambled."

"So that the probe is no longer functional?"

"That's right, but it goes beyond that. Not only will the probe never explode, the interior components get so fouled up that no one ought to be able to reverse-engineer how the probe was put together in the first place. It's possible that the explosion inside _Observer's_ Probe Preparation Bay was interpreted as an attack or as an attempt to break into the Locker, and that is what caused all the probes automatically to break their seals. Anyway, as I said, the first thing we need is authorization from the captain, so let's get it. Preparation Bay to captain."

A synthetic voice answered immediately. "Captain here."

"Request authorization to access the Locker."

"Access granted, access grant logged."

"Thank you, Preparation Bay out." O'Brien turned to Sisko. "The probe team only needs to do that at the start of the mission. They don't need to do it with every probe they prepare. Okay, now that we're authorized by the captain, let's get a probe. Computer, dispense probe, authorization 'O'Brien one-two-three.'"

A different synthetic voice answered. "Authorization accepted. Stand by."

O'Brien gestured to the slot on the wall, which after about half a minute changed its shape and produced a substantially cylindrical object, resting on end in a small cradling platform. "That's the probe in the receptacle."

Sisko leaned over to examine the probe, but O'Brien spoke up. "Stay where you are, sir." As Sisko leaned back, a strange-looking robotic mechanism descended from the ceiling and attached itself to the probe. It only took about a second for this mechanism to lift the probe from the receptacle. "The probe is too heavy to lift, sir," O'Brien explained. "There's a crane in the ceiling that lifts each probe to the bench."

By the time O'Brien finished his sentence, the crane had done just that, and its lifting mechanism had been withdrawn. The probe stood on end on the bench.

The probe's exterior seemed to be mostly white metal, Sisko guessed. The probe's shape was essentially cylindrical with a tapered nose, and there were numerous protrusions and ridges and other structures all over it.

Sisko decided to touch the probe. It felt hard and smooth like metal, but in a way, it didn't feel like metal at all.

"In case you're wondering, sir," O'Brien said, "that casing makes it difficult to transport the probe with a transporter, and makes it harder to grab with a tractor beam. Makes it harder to steal. The casing also includes features that make the probe difficult to scan when the seals are intact, but our scanner knows where those features are and can scan around them."

 _Just one of the many security schemes_ , Sisko thought. "So, now that the probe is here, what do we do?"

O'Brien sighed. "So now we go through the preparation checklist. It's a rather tedious process, I'm afraid. First, we have to let the system do a preliminary automatic diagnostic and scan. I'm not sure what this scan checks for, but I'd wager that pretty much every system and subsystem gets checked multiple times. As you can see on this indicator, the first automatic scan is now complete, and diagnostic results are within normal limits. And so we can now remove the first mechanical."

"The first mechanical _what_?" Dax wanted to know.

"The first mechanical safety." O'Brien saw Sisko and Dax exchange glances, so he explained: "Believe it or not, this probe has several moving parts: hinges, levers, latches, push rods, that type of thing. That may sound like ancient technology, but these moving parts are very reliable, readily constrained, and very hard to manipulate remotely. The moving parts need to move in order for the probe to be able to detonate. This component here," O'Brien indicated a ring near the base of the probe, "holds some of those parts in fixed positions relative to one another, so that they cannot move, and since they cannot move, the probe cannot detonate."

O'Brien held up a fist. "Inside the probe is an element called a 'core.'" He held up his other fist. "There is also an element called a 'striker.' In order for the probe to detonate, the striker must physically strike the core." O'Brien demonstrated by hitting one fist with the other. "The composition of the core and the striker are perhaps the most closely guarded secrets in the entire galaxy, because it is their physical contact, impact, chemical reaction and surface interactions that ultimately cause the detonation resulting in Upsilon Radiation. The mechanical safeties prevent the striker from moving, relative to the core. Oh, and there is also a barrier physically interposed between the striker and the core, and until this barrier is moved out of the way, the striker cannot touch the core. But that gets moved later."

With that, O'Brien pulled the ring, twisted it, pushed it, twisted it again, then pulled. As O'Brien pulled the ring, a set of bonded metal rods was extracted from the probe.

"As I've said, this is very old-fashioned technology," O'Brien went on, "but it is also very secure. Mechanical safeties like this cannot be deactivated remotely, and," he banged the bonded rods on the bench, "they don't break. Now that the first mechanical is out, I need to use this, here." He picked a handheld crescent-shaped instrument from the wall. "Ready to scan," O'Brien announced, and then he moved the crescent slowly along the length of the probe.

"Repeat," said the computer, when O'Brien reached the end. O'Brien ran the instrument along the length of the probe again.

"Any idea what you're scanning for this time?" Dax asked.

" _I'm_ not really scanning for anything. It's the scanner across from me that's doing the actual scanning, along with the auxiliary scanning elements in the bulkheads. The instrument I'm holding is simply a reflector. It is totally passive, it has no scanning emitter. If I had to guess, I'd say that this scan is checking the fuel in the propulsion systems."

Sisko noticed that O'Brien used the plural. "How many propulsion systems are there?"

"At least three. One to position the probe in the planet's atmosphere, and one to get the probe out of the planet's atmosphere if anything goes wrong. And the third system is a redundant backup." O'Brien glanced at one of the displays. "And it looks like whatever scans were done there, we passed." O'Brien returned the crescent-shaped instrument to its mount on the wall, and retrieved a hook-like piece of metal mounted next to it. "So we move on to the second mechanical."

O'Brien pressed on a protrusion and a small opening appeared next to it on the probe. O'Brien lowered the hook-like object into the opening, and turned it like a key. He then withdrew a long, gently curved metal rod from the probe. O'Brien performed this maneuver from a less-than-optimal angle; it might have been easier had the Bay not been so crowded.

"Here's the second mechanical, and you need a special tool like this to extract it. And now, yet another automatic scan and diagnostic are performed. These usually take several minutes to do."

"Chief," said Sisko, "when we've completed the checklist and done all the scans and removed all the safeties, will we be able to detonate the probe?"

"No."

"Because there are still some safety elements in place?"

"That's right, sir."

"Can we deactivate those other safety elements manually?"

O'Brien was about to say doing so would be impossible, but stopped himself. "I don't think so, sir. They're all protected from manipulation, and they're all tamper-proof. There's no way to get at them, no way to turn them off. And even if you could turn them off, it would do no good. Turning them off doesn't _deactivate_ them, and the only thing that can deactivate them is the probe itself. The probe won't deactivate these safeties unless sensors in the probe affirmatively indicate an absence of life, and that the probe is deep in the atmosphere of a gas giant. Add to that, the probe has to receive an encrypted authorization to detonate, which comes from the Probe Control Station, not from this Bay."

"Where's the Probe Control Station?" Sisko asked.

"About ten decks up, I think. Probe Control is a secure area like the Bay, so only the probe team is allowed in. It's not shielded from sensors, though, like the Bay is. Anyway, the encrypted authorization deactivates some additional safety interlocks and allows the probe to execute a command to detonate. There must be an explicit command to detonate, and it too is issued by the Probe Control Station, not by anyone in the Bay."

"Scan suspended," announced the computer. "Attach phase buffer deactivator."

O'Brien retrieved a large cap-like object from the wall and placed it on the nose of the probe. The object was unwieldy and clearly did not fit, the way O'Brien had it. "Give me a hand with this, will you, sir? The deactivator needs to be positioned just so." With Sisko's help, the object was maneuvered into place on the probe.

"Deactivator placement is now correct," acknowledged the computer. "Scan commencing."

"But if all of the requirements of those safety systems are satisfied," Sisko pressed, "can the probe detonate then?"

"Yes, but it's not a guarantee."

"I don't understand."

"There are at least two scenarios in which the probe won't detonate, even though _all_ safety systems are deactivated and even though the command to detonate is received. One scenario is fairly common, the other is very rare."

"What's the common one?"

"The probe has to be primed before it can detonate," O'Brien explained, as he took a quick look at the tasks on the checklist. "After the probe is launched and positioned, and after the ship is maneuvered into a place to take readings, the probe is given the command to detonate. But if the striker were simply to strike the core, no detonation would occur. That is because the core is essentially in a non-explosive state until just before detonation. What the probe does is it 'primes' the core, getting it ready to explode when struck. The unclassified materials say that the core is subjected to shaped electromagnetic fields to arrange the core's molecules from a chaotic, non-explosive state to an ordered, volatile state. The exact details are kept secret, of course. We know that priming takes about three to five seconds. And we also know this: it doesn't always work."

Sisko raised an eyebrow. "The core doesn't always get primed?"

"That's right. In about one out of every eight probes, there is an 'FTP,' a failure to prime. And if you get an FTP, then the probe is useless, at least temporarily. After an FTP, the probe detects that it didn't prime, so it automatically sends a message to that effect to Probe Control. The probe then assesses its position relative to the ship and plots a course out of the planet's atmosphere. Apparently it takes the probe quite a bit more time to come back up than it did to go down. The ship has to go retrieve the probe with a special retrieval shuttlecraft, after the probe gets itself out of the atmosphere. FTP's are big pains in the arse, if you'll pardon the expression. And apparently, there is no way around FTP's. It's not a problem with the priming apparatus; every so often, the molecules just by chance get arranged in an order that they won't explode. Supposedly, the physics of the situation is that one out of eight probes won't prime, no matter what you do."

Dax frowned. "So, if you wanted to kill yourself and all your shipmates, and you figured out a way to defeat all of the safety systems that would prevent you from killing yourself and all your shipmates, you'd still have a one-out-of-eight chance of failing?"

"That's right. Chances are, you'd succeed, if 'succeed' is the right word. But blind luck might intervene and the probe might not prime."

Sisko asked: "And a probe that fails to prime is a dud, it's useless?"

"Well, not exactly. A probe that has failed to prime can be reset. If a probe fails to prime, the authorization to detonate is rescinded and the retrieval shuttlecraft is dispatched to go get it. An unexploded probe is not permitted to simply be left out in the environment, so it has to be fetched and returned to the Locker. The Locker will not dispense a new probe until the previous probe either detonates or is returned to the Locker."

"So only one probe can be out of the Locker at any time; another security measure."

"Right. The shuttlecraft brings the probe back to a special secure hatch on _Observer's_ hull. The probe is conveyed from that hatch to this receptacle." O'Brien pointed to a slot in a wall. "And from there, the probe goes back to the bench. Once the probe is on the bench, the probe team members in the Bay reinsert the mechanical safeties, and the crane returns the probe to the Locker. Once the probe is back in the Locker, a new probe can be dispensed, and this tedious preparation procedure begins all over again. Meanwhile, the FTP probe undergoes an automatic resetting process inside the Locker. The probe gets refueled, too. Resetting takes about nine hours, I think. But then the probe is like new."

"It still might FTP, again, though?'

"Oh, sure. But it is no more likely to fail to prime than any other probe."

The computer declared, "Scan complete. Probe checklist satisfied. Remove phase buffer deactivator."

Sisko ignored the computer's notification. "What's the other scenario where the safety systems are deactivated yet the probe won't detonate, the scenario that's really rare?"

"The probe might, at the last second, detect life, and re-engage the life detection safety system. This scenario is mentioned in the unclassified documents as one of the selling points of the Mapping Project. Detonation in the presence of life is forbidden by the Convention, and so if a life form shows up right before detonation, the probe will not detonate."

"I'm not sure I understand how that might happen," Sisko said. "Surely they scan for life before sending out any probes."

O'Brien took a breath. "Here's the scenario. The ship has scanned the planet and has detected no life. A probe is deployed inside the atmosphere of a gas giant. All safety systems are deactivated except for the life detection system. The life sensor makes a scan and still detects no life, so it generates a 'no life' signal. As a result, a special barrier interposed between the core and the striker is moved out of the way. The detonation command is received. In response, the probe begins to prime itself. In the few seconds before the probe can complete its priming, the life sensor suddenly detects the presence of life, when no life had been detected before. In that case, sir, the barrier is immediately moved back into place between the core and the striker. It happens _fast_ , the barrier can be repositioned in less than a tenth of a second. Then when the striker moves in to strike the primed core, the barrier prevents physical contact between striker and core."

"And there's no detonation."

"That's right. The impact alone is not enough to cause detonation. The core and striker have to _actually touch_ each other. The life system acts as a safeguard right up to the last second. Needless to say, last-second detection of life doesn't happen very often. Probably never has happened."

Again, the computer declared, "Probe checklist satisfied. Remove phase buffer deactivator."

Sisko gestured to O'Brien, and the two of them together maneuvered the cap-like object from the probe. This was a tricky procedure; it certainly explained why there were two members of the probe team on duty in the Bay, instead of one. O'Brien replaced the cap-like object on the wall. O'Brien continued: "Another benefit of the life detection system is that it is supposed to stop detonation of a probe while the probe is inside the ship."

"This time, it apparently didn't work," Sisko observed.

"That's correct, sir, it didn't," O'Brien replied somberly.

"That special barrier, what do we know about it?" Dax asked.

"Not much. Its actual composition and structure and placement within the probe are classified. The unclassified materials suggest, however, that this barrier can be retracted or redeployed like a curtain, and it can move very quickly. If it is indeed a curtain-type structure, it's probably made of standard alloys in a polymeric matrix, like the flexible barriers used in some Starfleet emergency systems. Those barriers have a good track record of reliability, though they can wear out if exposed to some harsh conditions or forces."

"Why a 'curtain?'" Dax wondered. "Why not a solid piece of material?"

"Probably to save space," O'Brien answered. "There's a lot of stuff packed into that probe. The curtain would be collapsible, and a collapsible barrier would make a great deal of sense."

Sisko wanted to make sure he'd understood the process. "So if the probe is in the planet's atmosphere, and the probe has been commanded to explode, and the life sensor detects life, the life detection system replaces the barrier and stops the probe from priming?"

"Actually, that's not quite right, sir. The barrier may be put back in place, but priming isn't stopped. The shaped electromagnetic fields associated with priming are pretty intense and may have some shear forces associated with them, but those fields are only intense in the area of the core, and they aren't harmful to life. So stopping priming isn't a priority, and I'm not sure you could terminate the electromagnetic fields immediately in any event. Chances are that the probe _is_ primed. The barrier doesn't stop the striker from trying to hit the core, either. All the physical interlocks that keep the striker from moving have been deactivated, and re-engaging them might take a second or two. The barrier can move back in place much faster than that. So instead of stopping the parts from moving, what the barrier does is that it prevents the striker from touching the core, and without actual physical contact of striker and core, there cannot be any detonation."

"What happens to the probe, then?"

"Well, if a life form has been detected in the atmosphere of the planet, then I suppose the mapping mission is effectively canceled. It is a serious offense to explode a probe in the presence of living things. If the probe tells Probe Control that life has been detected, the only choice would be to fetch the probe and go home."

"But when the shuttlecraft goes to retrieve the probe, the probe is still primed."

"Yes, sir, it would be."

"And it's already been given an order to detonate, yes?"

"That's right."

"Wouldn't it be rather dangerous to go get a probe that is already primed and trying to detonate?"

"Not really. The detonation command is not persistent, so the probe is not continuously trying to blow itself up. Probe Control is supposed to revoke authorization to detonate immediately, so the detonation command can no longer be executed. The life detection system is preventing the striker from contacting the core. The other automatic safety systems re-engage pretty quickly as the probe lifts itself out of the atmosphere. Then, of course, additional interlocks are reapplied by the probe team here in the Bay, and in the Locker."

"And this primed probe, does it stay primed forever?"

O'Brien thought for a bit. "I don't think so. If I remember right, the probe stays primed for a while, maybe eight or nine hours, but the primed material naturally reverts back to its unordered, unprimed state."

The computer once again declared, "Probe checklist satisfied."

"Let's finish this up. Probe Preparation Bay to Probe Control Station," O'Brien called.

"Probe Control," answered a voice.

"We've completed the checklist, will make probe ready for launch."

"Acknowledged," said the voice. "Launch, deployment and detonation are authorized."

"Very well, Prep Bay out." O'Brien sighed. "So that's basically it. It took us, what, thirty minutes to go through the procedure, but for a skilled probe team acting without interruptions, probe preparation takes about twenty minutes or so. All I have to do is a final review of the checklist, and sign off of on the checklist," he pressed his thumb on a touchpad, "and the rest is automatic." As he spoke, the crane appeared and attached itself to the probe and carried it to a slot near the Locker receptacle, where the probe was swallowed up.

"Strange that the automated system does all the work, but you have to sign off on the checklist," Dax remarked with a grin.

"Yeah," O'Brien smirked. "Officially, I'm supposed to make a visual inspection and evaluate the readings. If anything looks wrong to me, I'm supposed to decline to approve the checklist, reinsert the mechanical safeties, and then this probe gets returned automatically to the Locker, no questions asked, and another probe gets dispensed. I'd be surprised if that ever has happened. I just can't imagine any probe team saying, 'This probe has passed all inspections, but I just don't like the looks of it; so let's re-shelve it and do this whole boring preparation thing all over again.'"

"So the probe is now in the launcher; what happens next?" Dax asked.

O'Brien chuckled. "The folks in the Bay get to go to the restroom or eat their lunches. Their work is done for a while. Once the probe is in the launcher, it is given a final sterilization. Then the Probe Control Station gives the order to launch, and the probe is launched. It proceeds into the atmosphere of the planet at a desired point. Meanwhile, the ship immediately speeds to the location where it will take readings. I understand they call this 'the sprint," because the ship uses a powered orbital trajectory to get itself quickly into the right spot. Getting the probe and the ship into the right positions takes anywhere from twenty minutes to thirty minutes. Then if everything goes well, the probe is given the authorization to detonate, and then the command to detonate, and it detonates, and the ship is in position to detect the Upsilon Radiation and collect the readings. And then, the officers in the Bay have to get another probe and prepare it."

Dax looked around the Bay. "So each probe takes about fifty minutes from Locker to detonation?"

"Probably less than that," O'Brien smiled, "if you know what you're doing. The _Observer_ people certainly knew what they were doing. They probably were able to prepare, launch and detonate one probe every forty-five minutes or so."

"Chief, I have a hypothetical for you," Sisko intoned. "Suppose we were aboard the _Observer_ , and we came under attack by a ruthless enemy. All of our lives were at stake. No, it's not just our lives that are at stake, it's the safety of the _entire quadrant_ at stake! But none of our weapons function."

O'Brien knew where the hypothetical was going. "And our only possible weapon is a probe."

"Yes. Could you rig it so that we could get a probe to explode near the enemy?"

O'Brien looked Sisko in the eyes. "If it were up to me, sir, the quadrant would be doomed, because I have no idea how to do it."

"But all you'd have to do is make the striker hit the core," Dax interjected.

O'Brien laughed. "Easier said than done. This simulation is a good teaching tool but it is amazing what it doesn't teach. I have no idea exactly where the core and striker are, or how big they are, or what they look like, or what the internal guards and barriers look like. I know next to nothing about the inner layout of a probe, and I don't have the first clue as to what I'd need to do to get the thing to explode, or how I'd go about doing it. If I did anything to try to open the probe, it would detect my tampering and immediately break its seals, causing all of its components to become permanently inert."

They stood silent for a few seconds.

Dax was feeling a little overwhelmed. "This system is _very_ complicated. How many security and safety systems are there altogether? Hundreds? It's going to be difficult for us to sort through all of the safety systems."

"Maybe not," Sisko said. "Think about it. These probes do explode. The purpose of this preparation is to deactivate most, but not all, of the safety systems, so the probe _can_ explode, right? In fact, the probe is _supposed_ _to_ explode, but only under the proper conditions and in the right place. Well. Maybe we don't need to concern ourselves with all of the safety systems. It seems to me that we need to be mainly concerned with the safety systems that are still active when the probe leaves the Preparation Bay."

O'Brien summarized, "When the probe is ready for launch, all safety systems have been deactivated, with five exceptions. The safety systems that cannot be deactivated by Bay personnel are: one, gravitational gradient; two, life; three, environment; four, coded authorization to detonate; and five, actual command to detonate, which causes the probe to prime and explode."

"Six, failure to prime?" Dax added.

"Not really a safety system. More of an enormous annoyance."

"Okay," Sisko drawled. "Let's take them one at a time. Is there any way someone could, say, trick the gravitational gradient system?"

O'Brien grinned. "There might be. You could modulate a graviton stream, aimed from the top of the probe to the bottom. That might cause the sensor to register that it's physically closer to a gas giant than it actually is. You might even be able to do that with a tricorder that has a graviton emitter. I think some tricorders used by geologists have them. I don't see such a tricorder here in the Bay, but I'd bet _Observer_ has a geologist's tricorder on board. Every ship in the fleet has at least one, I think."

"All right, good," Sisko said. "You'll have to verify it, Chief, but for the time being, let's assume for that the gravitational gradient safety system can be deactivated. And let's further assume that the people working at the Probe Control Station issue the detonation authorization code, and the command to detonate."

Dax raised her eyebrows. "That's a rather significant assumption, Benjamin. _Can_ they do that? Perhaps even more to the point, _why_ would they do that?"

"For right now, let's only assume that the people working at the Probe Control Station are able to issue the detonation authorization code and the command to detonate, and that they do so for reasons that we cannot now fathom."

"We'd be left with just two of the five safety systems," Dax said, still unhappy with the assumption. "Environmental and life."

Sisko turned to O'Brien. "How about tricking those final two safety systems into deactivating?"

O'Brien looked around the Bay. He was again about to say it would be impossible, and again caught himself. "It'd be difficult. Presumably, the environmental sensor checks the environment to see whether it is consistent with that of a gas giant. It probably checks the atmosphere and pressure, maybe the temperature as well. If this probe has the same kind of environmental sensors that are deployed throughout the Federation, then I'm not sure you'd be able to fool them, at least not with the equipment in this Bay. You might be able to fake the environment if you had some special instruments, but that would be equipment that _Observer_ almost certainly did not have. The life sensor is probably even harder to fool than the environmental sensor." O'Brien sighed. "Let me think about that problem for a bit."

"Dax, you think about that, too." Sisko ordered. "And so will I. I'm starting to suspect that it may be possible to understand how someone could have caused this explosion."

O'Brien was less optimistic. "Sir, there may be only two systems standing in the way, but they are going to be very hard to defeat; especially the life system. Life sensors are used in Federation applications all over the quadrant. They're used in secured facilities, living quarters, transporters, science installations, airlock systems, science probes, screening stations, all over. We even have had several installed here in Deep Space Nine. They are very robust, have excellent performance records, and are considered to be highly reliable. In fact, I'm not aware of a life sensor _ever_ saying that there was no life in proximity, when in fact there was."

"But these sensors don't detect all life, do they, Chief?" Dax asked.

"I'm not totally certain, but I believe proto-life is not detected at all," O'Brien said, "and life sensors don't recognize genetic fragments or viruses as living. I don't think single-cell forms count as 'life,' though most multi-cellular forms do. So, I'm not completely sure about what exactly what will and will not trigger this sensor into saying that life is present or absent. But I can say this with confidence: a multi-cellular organism like a Human Being, standing less than two meters away, _that_ is a life form that _will_ be detected. And as far as I know, no one has ever figured out how to spoof a life sensor into detecting lifelessness when a person is standing right next to it."

"Check into that, Chief," said Sisko. "That may be one of the keys to figuring out what happened."


	6. Chapter 6

CHAPTER 6

When Sisko sat down to eat his breakfast, he found that his son, Jake, had left a message for him. The message was a short one.

"Hi, Dad. I know you're really busy and you're probably asleep right now, and I didn't want to wake you. I just wanted to tell you that, well, the temporary relocation facilities are kind of boring, so a bunch of us are going to go on a hiking and camping trip to some mountains nearby. We've got everything we need, and I'll be getting plenty of exercise and fresh air. We'll be gone about six days, I think, maybe longer, I don't know. I just wanted to say: don't worry about me, just do what you need to do and I'll be fine. Major Kira can get in contact with me in case of an emergency. So. Good luck, and I'll be seeing you soon. I love you, Dad."

Sisko finished his breakfast and then contacted Major Kira.

"Temporary relocation was hard on Jake," Kira said. "We're rather crowded here, and that's a problem for some of the people. Someone got the idea to go to the mountains, and get away from the crowds, and Jake decided he wanted to go along. He's in good company, Benjamin. Jell Laren and her partner, Thom, are taking care of the group. I've asked them especially to look after Jake. They're very good people."

"How many are going?"

"About fifty."

"These mountains where Jake is going, are they safe?"

"Oh, yes. I don't think the group will be doing any mountain climbing, if that's what you're wondering. But there are many places to see and things to do in the foothills. They've got plenty of food and good portable shelters. Pure water should be easy to find. There's no dangerous wildlife to be concerned about. The scenery is gorgeous there."

"Is anyone his age going?"

"A few. Most of them are a bit younger than he is, and they are all with their families."

That remark weighed heavily on Sisko's heart. Jake had no family to go with him. "Jake's family" was bogged down with some pressing investigative duties. "Jake has gone off with the group by now, hasn't he?"

"Yes. The group departed about three hours ago. I can put you in contact with Jell Laren if you'd like."

"No." Sisko sighed. "No, no, that's not necessary. I'm sure Jake will be fine. And I'm sure you'll contact me if you hear any news to the contrary."

Kira smiled. "Certainly. Don't worry, he'll be all right."

"How about you? How are you doing?"

Kira's smile faded. "Our first few days were rather difficult, but we've settled in now. People are wondering when they'll be able to go back to the station. I've told them to expect to be here for a while, but I haven't given them a specific timetable."

"And I can't give you one, Major, I'm sorry."

"Let me know when you've got one, will you? Now, if you'll excuse me, Benjamin, there's something I need to attend to."

"Certainly."

"Kira out.'

After the communication with Kira ended, Sisko walked to his office near Ops.

The skeleton crew in Ops had nothing significant to report, except that, two hours ago, the captain of a private delivery vessel had been irate at being refused access to the station. When told that Deep Space Nine was under quarantine, and that he could only approach in case of an emergency, he declared that an emergency did exist: he had promised his crew that they could spend time in Quark's Bar, and that if this promise was not fulfilled, his crew might mutiny. Permission to approach was again refused, and the captain said he planned to lodge a formal complaint.

Sisko laughed. It felt good to laugh.

Constable Odo visited Sisko's office briefly to report that all was quiet aboard the station, adding that he would continue working to be sure that things stayed that way.

Sisko took this to mean that Quark was staying out of trouble.

After Odo left, Sisko made a brief station log entry saying that the station was quiet, and that his work on a confidential project was proceeding. He gave his seal of approval to the decision to deny the delivery vessel permission to approach, and remarked that, if a formal complaint were to be lodged, a counter-complaint of falsely declaring an emergency might be asserted.

Sisko then secured his office and began reviewing documents downloaded from the _Observer_. There was a mountain of material, but none of it pertained to probe operations. Virtually everything probe-related had been stored in the archives in the Probe Preparation Bay. Dax and O'Brien had confirmed that all of the probe-related records had been lost, destroyed by the explosion. Those records would probably have told Sisko, Dax and O'Brien everything; but those records were gone and could not be brought back.

Sisko looked at the few log entries pertaining to _Observer's_ trip through the wormhole to the Gamma Quadrant, and the _Observer's_ journey to the as-yet-unnamed gas giant to be mapped. Before the ship entered orbit, the Captain had ordered sensor sweeps for any nearby ships and for any life signs, apparently part of standard procedure. The sweeps were performed and the results logged as negative. The Captain had also ordered deployment of satellites around the planet for relaying monitoring data and communications. This too was done before _Observer_ entered orbit, and seemed to be routine practice.

The final log entry merely mentioned that the ship had entered orbit.

Sisko checked log entries for a few other mapping missions and found a similar pattern. There were some routine log entries, but once the ship entered orbit, there was nothing. Log entries resumed after the _Observer_ had finished its work and left orbit, and those entries typically said nothing about the mapping operation that had just been performed.

For the next couple of hours, Sisko reviewed records about crew fitness, equipment lists/repairs/replacements, course changes, engine maintenance, replicator quirks, morale, shore leaves, power conversion efficiency and various other routine matters. There was a lot of information there, all of it unclassified. Very few records seemed to be relevant. Even so, Sisko thought there might be something that would help the investigation. And even if there wasn't, he still had to check, didn't he?

Sisko spent over four hours reviewing reports. He was tired. It was a welcome respite when O'Brien sought entry to his office. Sisko invited O'Brien to enter.

"How's it going, Chief?"

"All right, sir. And for you?"

"Fine." Sisko immediately thought better of that answer. "No, that's not true." Sisko motioned for O'Brien to sit. "I've been looking over the records and logs from the _Observer_. For one thing, I've been looking to see whether there is any indication of any tension or conflict or unhappiness among the crew in general, or involving the probe team members in particular. As best I can tell, this was a very happy ship."

"So happy, that no one had any reason to try to kill all of his or her shipmates?"

"Correct. This ship was one of the most prestigious in the fleet. The crew had received numerous citations for their gas giant mapping missions. Morale was very high. Add to that, the officers and crew had an excellent relationship. I can find no evidence of fighting or patterns of disciplinary action. I can't see that there were any quarrels of note. The most serious conflict I can find in recent history is that some members of the crew complained that the First Officer had severe halitosis. No one blows up a ship over bad breath, do they?"

"Depends on how bad the breath is, I suppose." O'Brien chuckled and Sisko grinned.

"How is your part of the inquiry going?"

"Well, sir, I'm here to make a request. I'd like to pay a visit to _Observer_."

"You have a good reason, I'm sure."

"I think I do. Dax and I have scanned the _Observer_ as thoroughly as we can. We've taken detailed sensor sweeps pretty much everywhere except the Probe Prep Bay. The decks and bulkheads of the Bay have incorporated protective measures that block long-range sensor scans."

"Too bad those protective measures couldn't block Upsilon Radiation. That would have saved most of the crew. But Upsilon is too penetrative, I suppose."

"Yes, it is. Anyway, though we can't scan the interior of the Bay, it appears that the explosion may have created some minute gaps in those protective measures. If I'm right, I might be able to take a portable scanner aboard _Observer_ and get some pretty detailed readings of the interior of the Bay." Sisko looked skeptical. O'Brien explained: "You see, the blast of the explosion bulged out the decks and the bulkheads, and we can detect that there may be disruptions in the shielding that normally is opaque to our sensor sweeps. If I can get in close, I might be able to take readings through those disruptions."

"What do you expect to learn?"

"For one thing, I'm hoping to find out how far along in the preparation procedure they may have been when the explosion occurred. I also have some questions in my own mind as to where inside the Bay the explosion took place. The deformation of the Bay is somewhat lop-sided. You said you wanted us look for anything that might be out of place. Well, maybe it's nothing, but I'd like to check it out."

"And further, whether we expect to learn anything in particular or not, I think we ought to document the interior of the blast site, if we can." Sisko seemed to be going over reasons for justifying O'Brien's visit to _Observer_ , which he would have to justify to the Commission.

"I agree, sir."

"It's frigid over there, Chief."

"I know, and I'll be wearing a suit. Rather than deactivate the transporter signal disrupters, I plan to make a brief spacewalk. There's a cargo access port and a personnel access hatch that will put me just a few meters from the Probe Prep Bay."

"There might be a lot of things over there that aren't nice to look at."

"I know. I don't plan to go anywhere other than near the Probe Prep Bay. I considered going to the Probe Control Station, but I don't know whether my access codes would work there, and I doubt there would be much I can learn there in any event. Plus, I don't fancy the notion of stepping over, you know, people."

Sisko thought a moment. "Permission granted. I'll let _Wild Rose_ know you're authorized to go aboard _Observer_."

"Thank you, sir."

An hour later, O'Brien was aboard the runabout _Ganges_ , on his way to the _Observer_. His environmental suit was uncomfortable but bearable. As he approached the _Observer_ , the _Wild Rose_ challenged him and he gave the proper countersign.

O'Brien parked _Ganges_ close to _Observer_. He readied himself for his brief jaunt through space. He checked his suit, strapped his scanner to his arm, entered an airlock, evacuated the air from the airlock, and launched himself toward _Observer_. His suit stabilizers kept his trajectory true, and his access codes successfully opened _Observer's_ personnel hatch. O'Brien floated through the open hatch and immediately felt the pull of _Observer's_ artificial gravity. He closed the hatch and flooded the airlock with air, but made no effort to adjust his suit. When the airlock pressure matched the _Observer's_ internal air pressure, O'Brien opened the airlock.

He made his way forward toward the Probe Preparation Bay. The corridor was deserted. The lighting was poor, but O'Brien could see where he was going well enough. He knew he was next to the Locker. Presently he saw a bulkhead oddly bulged outward into the corridor.

 _That would be the Bay._

He retrieved his portable scanner and began taking readings.

Moving slowly around the bulging walls, O'Brien found sites in which the portable scanner could take readings inside the Bay. There was no location from which the scanner could see the entire Bay, but O'Brien would be able to have the computer stitch the readings together to make a coherent picture.

O'Brien passed the entryway to the Bay, looking exactly like it had looked in the holosuite simulation. The outer door was not bulging, though parts of the bulkhead were deformed, and the deck beneath his feet was uneven.

O'Brien decided to go up one deck to see whether he could scan the Bay from above. He found a ladder access, and though the climb was a challenge in his suit, he made it successfully.

As he exited the ladder access, he turned in the direction of the Bay, and saw the deck had been severely deformed. Out of habit, he looked the other way down the corridor. About ten meters from him, in the middle of the corridor, was a human skeleton, wearing what appeared to be the shredded uniform of an ensign. The skeleton looked somehow deformed, and the skull seemed as though it had been made of wax, and had melted a little. There was no sign of skin or hair.

O'Brien forced himself to focus on the job at hand. He maneuvered around the region above the Bay, checking his footing as he went and careful not to put too much weight on decks that seemed damaged. He found several productive scanning areas. When he decided that he had taken enough readings, he returned to the ladder access. Before taking the ladder, he looked again at the melted bones in the corridor. He couldn't be certain, but it seemed that more bones lay in the corridor further on. O'Brien had no desire to investigate further.

"Rest in peace, friends," he muttered. "You were the _lucky_ ones."

He returned to Deep Space Nine the way he had come.


	7. Chapter 7

CHAPTER 7

Dax met with the survivors from the _Observer_. They had little to say. All of them were off-duty at the time the explosion occurred and _Observer's_ klaxons sounded automatically, and all of them were in their quarters in the forward areas of the ship.

They knew next to nothing about probe operations. They seemed to know even less than what was available as unclassified information.

"We knew who was on the probe team," remarked Lieutenant Pitts, "but most of us didn't socialize with them, even talk to them."

"Why?"

"Because their work was so secret," Pitts answered. "Do you know what could happen to us if we talked to any of them about probe operations? We'd be facing discipline, demotion, confinement, a stain on our service records, maybe even a dishonorable discharge. We could lose our careers even if we only asked an innocent question. So we just avoided the probe team."

The meeting with the _Observer_ survivors was brief. Dax hoped that _Surveyor's_ probe team might have more helpful information. She contacted the most experienced member of the team, Lieutenant Kel Lauren. Lauren agreed to talk, but recommended that Dax speak only to him at first, saying that there was "no need to inconvenience anyone else at this point." Dax agreed that talking to Lieutenant Lauren was probably a good place to start, and she proposed a time to talk.

At the agreed-upon time, Dax opened a communication channel to Lauren.

"Mister Lauren, my name is Lieutenant Jadzia Dax, at Starbase Deep Space Nine."

"How do you do?"

"Very well, and you?"

"Fine, thanks."

"Mister Lauren, would you please be certain that security is activated where you are?"

"Oh, sorry. Okay, this channel is secure."

Dax saw an indication appear on her display showing that the conversation was now over secure channels. "Thank you. As you know, I am investigating an incident that occurred two days ago aboard the USS _Observer_."

"Uh-huh."

"You are a member of the probe team of USS _Surveyor_ , is that right?"

"I'm the most senior member."

"That's good. As you are the most senior member of the _Surveyor_ probe team, I thought you might be able to help me understand what happened aboard _Observer_."

"I doubt that. If the rumors are true, that one of their probes blew up in the Prep Bay, then I'm just as mystified about that as you are. I have no idea how anybody might possibly do such a thing. I thought it was impossible."

"Mister Lauren, have you thought about how this might have occurred? Can you suggest to me any avenues for inquiry that I might pursue?"

Lauren shook his head. "When we on the _Surveyor_ first heard what had happened, we thought it couldn't _possibly_ be true. Even when it was confirmed that a probe had exploded while being prepared in the Bay, we thought that it couldn't possibly be true. The members of the probe team, we all spoke about what might have happened. But we're all stumped. About the only thing we can agree on was that it simply couldn't have been an accident. Someone must have been trying to get that thing to explode. But how that person did it, well, we can't imagine."

"Let me ask you about some of the safety systems."

"Let me ask you something first," Lauren interrupted. "It might save time. There is an interactive demonstration of how the probes are prepared for launch. You can run it on a holodeck. I believe the demonstration is even unclassified."

"Yes, I've seen that demonstration."

"Okay. So you know that part of the probe preparation involves deactivation of some of the safety measures, but not deactivation of all of them."

"Yes."

"There are at least three safety systems that cannot be deactivated. Not by us, not by anyone. Only the probe itself can deactivate those systems, and even then only if it is deep inside the atmosphere of a gas planet, and away from life forms."

"Isn't there also a special code that needs to be entered, from a station outside of the Bay, so that the probe is authorized to detonate?"

Lauren became uncomfortable. Dax took note.

"Uh, the code, yeah," Lauren said. "The authorization code doesn't come from the Bay, that's right. It has to be given by the Probe Control Station. Listen, Lieutenant, is this conversation off the record?"

Dax raised her eyebrows. "Everything we say is confidential," she said. "Do you have something you need to tell me? Something seems to be bothering you."

Lauren took a few moments. "What's bothering me is what one of my team members said. She said that the guys in the Bay probably didn't try to make the probe blow up, but someone at the Probe Control Station did. In other words, somebody at the Probe Control Station not only gave the code for authorization to detonate, but then also gave the detonation command."

"Why would anyone do that?" Dax asked.

"Who knows? Maybe somebody wanted to kill every person on this ship? Maybe somebody went insane."

"No, what I mean is: is it even possible to give the authorization code early? Doesn't the Probe Control Station have to wait until the probe is launched and in position?"

"Good grief, no. Waiting until the probe is in position is the _worst_ time to enter the authorization code."

"Why?"

Lauren laughed nervously. "Because if you're assigned to the Probe Control Station, you become very busy once that probe is launched. Entering the code takes time, and you have too many other things that command your attention. Once the probe enters the planet's atmosphere, it can get blown around, thrown off course, sometimes even spun around. And the ship has to be ready to respond to what the probe is doing. At the Probe Command Station, you're busy checking to be sure the probe is in position, checking to see that the ship is in position, and relaying all of that information to the captain. You could be making dozens of trajectory adjustments and course corrections."

"I don't understand. When _do_ you enter the code?"

"Typically we enter it after checklist completion, just before launch."

Dax wasn't sure she'd heard that properly. "You give the authorization code _while the probe is still aboard the ship?_ "

"Sure. We don't give the _actual command to detonate_ , of course. The code merely authorizes the probe to accept a command to detonate."

"And you give the actual command to detonate when the probe is in position?"

"That's right." Lauren smiled, but his smile was far from warm. "In case you're wondering, we could give the command to detonate while the probe was aboard the ship as well. We _don't_ do that, but we _could_. Once the authorization code is entered, Probe Control has full discretion as to when to command the probe to blow up."

"What would happen," Dax wondered, "if just before launch you _did_ give the command to detonate?"

"Nothing. No explosion. The probe won't even be able to prime. There's _no way_ it could blow up."

"You're certain?"

Lauren raised his eyebrows. "I've never actually tried to do such a foolish thing, if that's what you're asking," he replied, with a note of offense. Then his attitude relaxed, he shrugged and continued: "Sorry, what I meant was no, the probe can't blow up. That probe can only prime and detonate when it is deep in the atmosphere of a gas giant and when no life forms are nearby. When that probe is aboard ship, the conditions are unlike those of a gas giant, and there are life forms in close proximity. There are at least three separate safety systems that would all simultaneously have to fail. And not just fail; if they all stopped working, there still would be no explosion. No, the safety systems would actually have to go haywire and do the exact opposite of what they were supposed to do."

"I see."

"The odds against that happening are, well, so remote as to be impossible." Lauren sighed. "I'm sorry. But I just can't give you any ideas. But if you figure it out, I'd love to hear how it was done."

"Just so I'm clear on this," Dax said, "the authorization code and the detonation command can both be given while the probe is still aboard."

"Yes. Originally the idea was that the code and the command would be tied into an environmental interlock, but that would just be duplicating the safety already offered by the environment assessment safety system. So that interlock was not implemented."

"But you think that's what happened, that someone in Probe Control must have issued both the authorization code and the detonation command while the probe was still aboard _Observer_?"

Lauren took several seconds to answer. "I don't know. This is just what one of my team members thinks. Her point is that Probe Control needs to issue the authorization code and the detonation command for the thing to blow up, so that _must_ have been what happened. That's what _she_ thinks. As for me, personally, I don't know what to think. Lieutenant, believe me, I've gone over it and over it and I just can't begin to come up with any way that I could make any of the damned probes explode inside the ship. As I see it, what happened was physically impossible."

Dax saw from his expression that Lauren was not going to be of any further help, and that he was hoping to end the conversation. She decided not to push him for more information, at least, not yet.

"Mister Lauren, if you think about this further, and if anything occurs to you that might explain what happened, then please let me know."

"I will. I hope you find out what happened. If you don't, I'm probably going to be without a ship."

"I suppose the _Surveyor's_ stand-down order will be lifted in due course," Dax remarked.

Lauren lowered his eyes. "I'm not as optimistic as you are." He raised his eyes and looked straight at Dax. "I mean, this happened to the _Observer_."

"I don't follow you."

"It happened to the good ship."

"I still don't follow you."

Lauren smiled a wan smile. "Well, let me explain a little bit about the _Observer_ and the _Surveyor_. The _Observer_ is the 'A Team' that gets all the interesting and challenging missions; and the _Surveyor_ is the 'B Team' that gets all of the routine and uninteresting missions."

Dax shook her head. She hadn't heard of this.

"Well," Lauren drawled, "I doubt there's an official Starfleet policy along those lines, but everybody aboard the _Surveyor_ knows it's true. _Observer_ gets all the main courses; _Surveyor_ gets the leftovers. _Observer_ gets all the cutting-edge research projects and the high-profile missions; _Surveyor_ gets the run-of-the-mill jobs. _Observer_ gets all the prestige and awards; _Surveyor_ gets nothing but a pat on the head. _Observer_ gets first pick of all personnel, too; if there's a gas giant specialist who is really talented, _Observer_ will snatch that person up; _Surveyor_ gets whoever is left."

Dax could hardly believe what she was hearing.

Lauren saw the expression on Dax's face and chuckled. "I'm exaggerating a little, maybe. It could be that _Observer_ deserved all those accolades, I don't know. I only know that, try as we might, _Surveyor_ couldn't begin to match _Observer's_ performance, and we had no idea how they were able to turn in the numbers that they did. Naturally, they didn't want to share their secrets with us. They were the 'number one' ship and they wanted to keep it that way."

"I see."

"And now I'm hearing scuttlebutt to the effect that, if an on-board probe explosion could happen to _Observer_ , and since _Observer_ has the best and most talented people, then it's only a matter of time before an on-board explosion occurs on _Surveyor_. So I'm not optimistic that the stand-down order will ever be lifted."

Dax didn't know what to say, so she said, "Interesting."

"That's all off the record, though," Lauren reminded her, grinning insincerely.


	8. Chapter 8

CHAPTER 8

O'Brien knew that the coming conversation would be a difficult one. Dax had talked earlier in the day with a member of _Surveyor's_ probe team, and Sisko thought O'Brien ought to try talking to someone else who might have knowledge.

O'Brien had heard that it could be very difficult to hold a conversation with perhaps the most celebrated safety designer in history. He had never met the man, but had heard from many people that Stoan could be exceptionally difficult. And by "difficult," they usually meant "insulting." It was not that Stoan _intended_ to insult anyone, people said, but it was his way of being direct. O'Brien found a published news profile about Stoan, in which one interviewee said that Stoan lacks emotions, but "the place in his psyche where emotions are supposed to be is filled with ego." Another interviewee was quoted as saying that most people would think that Stoan was a shameless braggart, "but for the fact that he really has done all the remarkable things he says he's done." Still another interviewee was quoted as saying that Stoan was a difficult teacher "who would bully you and tear you to pieces if he thought you didn't know what you were talking about."

So O'Brien had tried to prepare himself. He resolved not to lose his cool, no matter what was said. He would be talking to someone who was way above him, on a professional level. He expected that he might be belittled, harangued, intimidated. But Sisko had ordered that he at least had to try to talk to the one who had designed nearly all of _Observer's_ safety systems.

O'Brien wished he knew what Dax had learned from her conversation with the _Surveyor_ probe team member. It might help. But Stoan, as it happened, was busy inspecting the probes and safety systems aboard _Surveyor_. He agreed to speak with O'Brien at a specified time. There had not been any opportunity to learn what Dax had found out.

At the designated time, O'Brien touched his control pad to open a communication channel. The computer promptly asked for an authorization code, which he promptly gave. On the display in front of him were the words, "Stand by."

Moments later, the words disappeared, and the image of a stern Vulcan face appeared.

"Commissioner Stoan," O'Brien began. "Thank you for taking time to talk to me today."

"Greetings, Mister O'Brien." Stoan spoke with no tone of greeting in his voice. "Use the honorific 'Mister' when addressing me."

"Yes, sir, I will." _So it begins_ , O'Brien thought, _with a criticism of my very first words_. "Sir, I have been investigating the _Observer_ incident and I have some questions about some of the safety systems."

Before we begin," said Stoan with no trace of impoliteness in his voice, "I know you are the Chief of Operations aboard Deep Space Nine; but may I know your qualifications as an engineer and as an investigator?"

"Of course, sir." O'Brien had expected this. He gave Stoan a brief summary of his education, assignments and experience, focusing upon his on-the-job education in a variety of technical systems. He made it a point to emphasize those instances in his career in which he had addressed questions of failure analysis. Stoan listened without comment.

When O'Brien finished, Stoan spoke. "Do not be offended by the following question. Is there anyone more qualified than you who could be assigned to this investigation in your stead?"

The question stung, but O'Brien remained cool. "If we wish to have the investigation continue, then no, sir. It should be possible to obtain someone more qualified than myself, but that would take many days, and we would have to suspend the investigation. Does the Commission wish to suspend the investigation?"

"No, it does not."

"Then I am the most qualified individual available. Sir."

"Have you formally studied the specialty of Engineering and obtained a degree?"

"No, sir, no formal study or degree."

"Are you educated or trained in the principles of interlocking safety protocols for the handling of ultra-hazardous materials?"

"No, sir."

"Do not be offended, but I deem such education essential in any competent investigator. For investigation of this particular incident involving the USS _Observer_ , such an education seems to me to be indispensable."

O'Brien felt his face begin to flush, but he kept his expression passive and his voice even. "Sir: I have to admit that I do not know as much about safety systems and system failures as you do."

"Yes, you must admit that."

It was another put-down, and O'Brien tried to ignore it. "But my aim is to draw upon your knowledge and experience so that I may complete my assignment."

"Do not take offense, but I do not have the time nor the inclination to educate you."

"Sir: I am educating myself, to the extent I am able. But I need your assistance with certain technical questions."

"What is your security clearance?"

"Gold, sir."

"Your security clearance is not high enough." It seemed to O'Brien that there was a note of impatience in Stoan's voice. "There is very little I am permitted to tell you. Perhaps we ought to end this communication."

"Sir," O'Brien tried to keep his voice even. "I do not need to know about the details pertaining to generation of Upsilon Radiation."

"That is true."

O'Brien continued: "But I do need to know about the safety systems. I am currently focusing on whether it is possible to override or deactivate the life detection system and the environment assessment system."

"That focus is unwise, extremely unwise," Stoan interrupted.

"Unwise? Why, sir?"

"Perhaps you need to educate yourself to a greater extent before you speak to me," Stoan suggested.

O'Brien grit his teeth. "Why is it unwise to look at those two systems, sir?"

"The reason is so obvious that I should not have to explain it. If you had performed even a modest amount of research, you would know that systems based upon the life and environmental sensors are used in thousands of applications in various forms, and have been so used for over thirty years. They have, for all intents and purposes, perfect safety records."

"I knew that, sir."

"Further, if you had performed basic research, you would have learned that, in the case of the life sensor, all attempts to deactivate or sabotage or deceive such sensors have been unsuccessful."

"I understand that as well, sir."

"Further still: as a matter of basic failure analysis, if an investigator is trying to find the cause of a system failure, that investigator does not begin by examining those components that have been proven to work perfectly. That investigator does not presume that components that have performed for decades without a single recorded failure may have on this occasion failed for the first time."

"I understand that, too," O'Brien said, now wondering how long he would be able to maintain his composure.

"Mister O'Brien, do you now understand why that focus is unwise? Have I now explained it sufficiently to you?"

O'Brien decided to make one more attempt. "Mister Stoan, it is my duty to inquire whether a determined individual, whether innocently, or by mistake, or with malice, might try to bypass the _Observer's_ safety systems. I had hoped that you would be able to assist me."

Stoan stared at O'Brien for several seconds. "Put simply, you wish to know whether I have any information concerning methods or techniques that an individual might use in order to cause a probe to explode on board. Is that your question?"

"Yes."

Stoan spoke slowly. "May I say it is an injudicious inquiry? Do not take offense, but it would be a poor use of my time to answer."

O'Brien was stung again. There was no mistaking it, Stoan had just told him that he'd asked a very stupid question. His voice rising, O'Brien decided to press the issue. "Sir, that question goes to the heart of the investigation. _Do you have any idea how this explosion might have occurred?_ "

Stoan's cocked his head, in a gesture of what seemed to be irritation. "Mister O'Brien. Do you wish me to engage in wild speculation?"

"No, sir, of course not."

Stoan's voice rose a wee bit. "Shall I discuss events without knowing the facts surrounding those events?"

"No, sir."

"Shall I concoct scenarios for you that may bear no relation to reality?"

"No, sir, no."

"Do you think I would design a safety system for secret and highly hazardous operations, and include in my design procedures by which those safety systems could be readily bypassed?"

"No, sir."

"Do you think I would have the reputation that I have, or hold the positions that I hold, if I were to knowingly fail to address every known or foreseeable hazard?

"Sir, no."

Stoan's voice rose again, ever so slightly. "Do you think that if there were a simple solution to the problem, that I would keep it to myself?"

"No, sir," O'Brien said, though he wondered about this.

"Do you now understand why your question is injudicious?"

O'Brien took a breath. He'd had enough. "Thank you very much for your answer, sir."

Stoan cocked an eyebrow. "I did not answer," he said simply.

"Yes, you did," replied O'Brien, his finger poised over his control panel. "Your answer is, that in spite of being as smart and experienced as you are, _you do not have the first damned clue_ as to what the hell happened to the _Observer_ and her crew. Please do not take offense. Good day."

O'Brien touched the control panel and closed the communication.

Then he went to Quark's to have a drink.


	9. Chapter 9

CHAPTER 9

"All right," Sisko said, from behind the desk in his office. "Brief status reports. Dr. Bashir, you first."

Bashir was seated next to Sisko's desk. He was grim. "There is little I can say. The survivors are dying from Upsilon Radiation exposure, and there is so far nothing I can do to stop it. We beamed off sixteen survivors. Six have since died. As for the remaining ten, they were farthest from the explosion and so it will take longer for them."

"Are they in the final stages?" Dax asked. Her expression showed deep sympathy for the survivors, and for Dr. Bashir.

"No. Five of them began experiencing mild discomfort in their arms and legs, which means that the neural degeneration is beginning to have physiological effect. Dyneuryllin has been shown to be effective against pain at this stage. I have replicated an adequate supply of Dyneuryllin and been administering it as needed. I estimate that, within about a day, all of the survivors will be experiencing unpleasant physical sensations. And after another day or so, their pain levels will come to the point that Dyneuryllin will no longer help. In fact, no treatment will be able to relieve their pain, and their pain will be quite severe. And after another two or three days, they'll expire."

O'Brien took a breath. "Is there nothing we can do?"

Bashir shook his head. "There is nothing I can do. I've tried several approaches, some of them quite radical, without success. I'll keep trying, of course."

"Increasing the dosage won't help?" Dax asked.

"No, it won't. The Dyneuryllin I'm administering is not Regular Dyneuryllin. It's Grade Orange Dyneuryllin, and if you start to double or triple the dosage of that grade, there is a risk of severe nausea, which simply makes things _much_ worse. And if you administer a bolus above ten times the dosage, there's a risk of death. By all accounts, my patients will reach a point where there is no dosage of any medication that will reduce their suffering."

"That is a _hell_ of a fate to have to deal with," Sisko said.

Bashir nodded. "I've been totally honest with my patients. They are fully aware of what they face." He forced a smile. "My patients are very brave."

"Starfleet knows that," Sisko said. "I was informed a few minutes before this meeting that Lieutenant Pitts will be presented with an award for meritorious conduct, for taking command after an extreme emergency and redirecting the _Observer_ back to the Alpha Quadrant."

"Yes, I know," Bashir said. "I was with her when she received notification of the award. She said that she refuses it."

Sisko has never heard of anyone doing such a thing. " _Refuses it?_ "

"Yes. She said that that award is appropriate for actions that save lives. Well, her actions didn't save any lives. All of her shipmates are dead or will be dead within days. So, she refuses to accept the award." Bashir rose. "Sir, if there's nothing further, I'd like to return to the Infirmary. I have some tests that I'm conducting."

"Of course, Doctor."

Bashir left the office. Sisko, Dax and O'Brien sat unmoving for several moments. Eventually Sisko returned to the business at hand.

"Dax, status report?"

"We have detailed scans of the _Observer_. We have accounted for all of the personnel except for the two officers who were in the Probe Preparation Bay at the time. The sixteen individuals who were beamed off are identified, of course. We have also positively identified all but nineteen of the deceased personnel by their DNA. Now, there were eight people aboard the _Observer_ who were members of the probe team. We now know that two of them were near the Probe Control Station, and four of them were off duty in their quarters. The other two, it is reasonable to conclude, were in the Bay. Their names were Jackson and Schoon."

"I know both of them," Sisko said. "That is, I've read their fitness reports, health records, unclassified log entries. Both were excellent officers, _first rate_ , in fact. I can find no indication in any of the records, not even a remote hint, that either officer may have wanted to harm everyone on board. And I find no suggestion of incompetence or carelessness. Quite the contrary: both men are deemed to be exceptionally efficient at their work."

"I'll bet the same could be said for the other members of the probe team," Dax said.

"Yes."

"The four members of the probe team who were off duty were Barkress, Fahmy, Kelly, and Van Wyk."

Sisko nodded. "All excellent officers, according to reports."

"And the two members of the probe team who were near the Probe Control Station," Dax continued, checking her notes on her device, "were Alexander and Rogg."

"Also both excellent officers," Sisko said.

Dax waited a moment before speaking again. "There is one slightly unusual thing about Alexander. It is probably nothing."

Sisko finished the sentence for Dax: "But I did order you to take note of anything odd, no matter how small."

"Yes. Well. Rogg's body was at her post, at the Probe Control Station. Alexander's body was about a meter away. He was apparently standing behind Rogg."

O'Brien didn't get it. "Why is that unusual?"

"Alexander wasn't supposed to be in Probe Control. Alexander's post was supposed to be in the Shuttle Hangar, inside the retrieval shuttlecraft. When probe launches occur, one member of the team has to be ready to go retrieve a probe with a shuttlecraft, in case one of two things happens. If the probe goes off course, it is has to be retrieved. According to the Commission's public records, a probe has never gone off course in the history of the Project. A more likely event, one that has happened thousands of times, is that the probe fails to prime and has to be retrieved. Now, it's probably not a serious concern that Alexander is not where he was supposed to be, since the Shuttle Hangar is fairly close by; but strictly speaking, Alexander's body was found away from his post."

Sisko tried to imagine how that might be significant. "Okay," was all he said.

Dax went on. "Also, I spoke to the senior member of the probe team from _Surveyor_. He says he has no theories as to how the explosion might have occurred."

Sisko had hoped for more help than that. "Dax, did you get any impression that he really knew what happened? Or perhaps that he had a very good idea what had happened, and he was just trying to protect himself or his probe team or _Observer's_ probe team?"

"My impression is that he was being straight with me," Dax replied. "In fact, he did tell me a few interesting things, supposedly off the record. For one thing, the authorization code to detonate can be given, and in the case of _Surveyor_ is routinely given, while the probe is still on board."

" _What?_ "

"They don't give the actual command to the probe to detonate, but the authorization code is given after preparation checklist completion, before the probe is launched."

"If _Observer_ followed the same procedure," O'Brien jumped in, "then one of the safety measures that we thought was there might not have been there at all."

"Actually, two of the safety measures might not be there." Dax cleared her throat. "Once the authorization code is received, the detonation command can be received at any time. Even if the probe is still aboard."

"You mean to say," Sisko asked with a note of incredulity, "that _nothing_ prevented the Probe Control Station from telling the probe to explode _inside the ship?_ "

"That's what I understand," Dax nodded. "But the expectation is that doing so would be a futile thing. There still are the automatic life, gravitational, and environmental protections in place. Any one of them would stop the detonation from occurring."

"If they could defeat the gravitational safety, as we think they could," Sisko intoned, "then they'd be closer to making the probe detonate."

"But the officer at the Probe Control Station can't defeat the gravitational safety," O'Brien pointed out. "I think you'd have to be in the Probe Preparation Bay to do that. You can't do it remotely."

The thought troubled Sisko. "That would suggest that someone in the Bay and someone in Probe Control conspired to cause this explosion."

No one said anything for a few seconds.

Dax cleared her throat again. "The officer from the _Surveyor_ said something else that was interesting. Apparently, there is some resentment or jealousy among the _Surveyor_ crew, directed at the _Observer_. It seems that there is a perception that the _Observer_ is deemed to be much better than the _Surveyor_ , and so the _Observer_ got all of the good mapping missions, while _Surveyor_ got all of the less desirable ones."

"Is there anything to that?"

"Possibly, Benjamin. I mean, the mission to the Gamma Quadrant was a prestigious mission, and _Observer_ was selected for it over _Surveyor_."

"Yes," Sisko remembered, "even though _Surveyor_ was actually closer to us than _Observer_ was, when the assignment was made."

"And I also found a public report from a few months ago, that there was a very prestigious research project involving binary gas giants in the Okrusk star system. _Observer_ was selected for that mission even though it was four days away from the system, and _Surveyor_ was just a few hours away. The report said that the researchers preferred to use the facilities of _Observer_. There was nothing in the report about how the crew of _Surveyor_ felt in being passed over, but we can guess they weren't too pleased about it."

O'Brien had an idea. "Would this resentment or jealousy be a sufficient motive, do you think, for the _Surveyor_ people to do something to _Observer_ that might cause _Observer_ to suffer an accident?"

"Doubtful. If I read the _Surveyor_ probe team member right, there was some bitterness, but not seething anger or hatred. Also, the two crews did not really interact, so one has to wonder what the crew of _Surveyor_ _could_ do to cause a disaster aboard _Observer_."

"It may be that the assignments that carry the most glory also carry the most risk," Sisko mused. "Perhaps _Observer's_ assignments were more hazardous than those of _Surveyor_."

"Possibly," Dax agreed, although she couldn't see any reason why that would mean _Observer_ would have a risk of probe explosion that was greater than that for _Surveyor_.

Sisko turned to O'Brien. "Chief, you talked to the person who designed the safety systems. What did he think might have led to the explosion?"

"He didn't know. No idea at all."

"He said that?"

"Not in so many words." O'Brien decided not to mention the details of his difficult conversation with Stoan. He'd tell them all about it later; now wasn't the time. "Mister Stoan did imply that if he knew what had happened, he'd share that knowledge with me. But he didn't have anything to share."

Sisko thought it sounded like Stoan might have been evasive, by implying things rather than saying them outright. Evasion would, however, be at odds with Stoan's reputation for being forthright. "I take it, Chief, that you don't feel he had anything to hide."

O'Brien thought for a moment. "Sir, I get the impression that he is troubled about this incident, _troubled in the extreme_. His reputation is on the line. I think he would find it very difficult to handle learning that there was a defect in his design or a hazard that he'd overlooked. So I suspect he has considered and reconsidered as many possibilities as he can imagine, yet he is totally mystified at how the incident could happen."

"Did he say anything else of interest?"

"Just that we were investigating the wrong way. He gave no recommendations as to what way would be better."

Sisko leaned forward. "What do you think? Are we investigating the wrong way?"

O'Brien answered carefully. "No. I think we are looking at the things we need to look at."

Sisko leaned back. "All right, then. How about your scans of the Probe Preparation Bay? How did they go?"

"Quite well, actually. Each scan could only reach a limited area of the Bay, but with a series of scans I was able to reach nearly the entire Bay. The computer stitched together the various scans to give me a reconstruction of the interior of the Bay. There is one small difficulty, though."

"What's that?"

"I'm not convinced that the computer stitched the scans back together properly. Probably the blast damage made it difficult for the computer to match up the corresponding elements in the various scans."

"What makes you think the computer stitched the scans together improperly?"

"Well, after the computer made its first pass at combining all of the scans, I ran a reconstruction simulation to determine where in the Bay the probe must have been when it exploded. And the simulation found that the reconstructed source of the blast was not where the probe was. The discrepancy is significant. We know all of the places that the probe could be inside the Bay: in the receptacle, on the bench, in transport. This simulation indicates that the probe exploded about half a meter away from where it should have been at any time during preparation."

"Is it possible that the thing that exploded was not the probe?" Immediately after throwing out the idea, Dax dismissed it. "No, that can't be right. How could it not be the probe? Upsilon Radiation was released, so we know that the probe exploded, don't we?"

Sisko frowned, then something occurred to him. "Could it be that the probe wasn't actually being prepared for launch? Could it be that the probe was one that had failed to prime, and was being returned to the Bay, and that's why it may have been in an unexpected place?"

O'Brien squinted, then brightened up a wee bit. "You know, I'm not sure it would explain why the explosion seems to be in the wrong place, but it might explain a lot of other things. If this probe was being returned to the Bay as an FTP, it would mean that all of the safeties on this probe would have recently been deactivated and the detonation order would have been given. If priming resulted in electromagnetic shear, then that might mean that some of the metallic moving-parts components inside the probe may have gotten pushed and pulled in many directions at once. Maybe some of the safeties got deformed or stuck in a disengaged position. Or maybe the probe wasn't a dud, it just exploded later than it should have."

"Look into that," Sisko ordered.

"Aye, sir."

"I don't think that scenario will hold up," Dax said cautiously. "A probe that fails to prime is retrieved from the planet and is returned to the Bay by the shuttlecraft, right? The team members in the Bay immediately reinsert the mechanical safeties and return the probe to the Locker, don't they? Well, if this were an FTP probe, then the shuttlecraft would still be outside _Observer_ , having just returned the probe. But we know that the retrieval shuttlecraft was _not_ outside _Observer_ , it was inside the Hangar; and we know that the shuttlecraft pilot, Alexander, was away from the shuttlecraft and inside the Probe Control Station."

O'Brien nodded. Put that way, the scenario seemed less likely. "I'll look into it anyway, just to be thorough. First, I should make sure the computer stitches my scans together using more reference points, so we'll know whether the probe exploded in the wrong place or not. I have a sneaking suspicion that when the computer runs the reconstruction simulation again, the explosion will be centered pretty much right above the bench, where the probe almost certainly was."

Sisko sighed. "Okay, unless you have any urgent matters to attend to, I'd say the two of you are done for the day. I'm done, too, except that I still have to give a progress report to Commissioner Young. I think I'm going to ask her whether it's true that the _Observer_ got more desirable assignments than the _Surveyor_. I'm also going to try to see what I can find out about past mapping missions; I feel I need to understand the context of _Observer's_ past missions, so I can find out why this one was different. But I'm really hoping she'll share with me what she'd found based upon her examinations of the _Surveyor_ and the probe assembly facilities."

"I'll be interested in that, as well," O'Brien remarked.

"Oh, Chief," Sisko just remembered something he wanted to discuss. "In addition to holographic simulations based upon your scans, I'd also like you to begin building some actual physical models that rely on sensors like those in the _Observer_. Not holographic simulations, but actual real-life models. And then I'd to have you try to defeat them or deactivate them or get around them. You think you can beat the gravitational gradient sensor? Well, I'd like to see you actually do it. Maybe you can trick the other sensors, too."

"Aye, sir. Good idea." O'Brien had already been planning to do this, ever since reading that Stoan himself preferred to test his safety systems with physical rather than holographic models; but O'Brien hadn't found the time to build any physical models. He felt a bit embarrassed that Sisko had suggested it first.

Dax spoke. "I'm going to try to talk to some of the other members of the _Surveyor_ probe team. Maybe they have some ideas."

"There's someone else I want you to try to talk to, Jadzia," said Sisko. "In my review of _Observer_ personnel records, I saw that there is a former member of _Observer's_ probe team who left _Observer_ and is now stationed at Starbase 12. Some unspecified family difficulty. Her name is Gaulle, I believe."

"I'll talk to her."

"And something else, Jadzia. If you can, see whether you can determine which probe was the one that exploded. And also, see whether you can determine whether it was an FTP probe or not."

"I've already looked into this. There's not much I can tell you. In the Locker, there are eleven empty slots. This may indicate that the _Observer_ went to the Gamma Quadrant with a full load of ninety probes, and that the one that exploded was the eleventh one in the sequence. We're not quite sure what the actual sequence was, though, since the empty slots seem to be distributed around the Locker at random."

Sisko thought it unlikely that probes would be withdrawn from the Locker at random. "Maybe the Commission can deduce the sequence from the pattern of empty slots. The Commission might be able to figure out what probe it actually was. I'll ask. Maybe the Commission has access to this probe's service record, manufacturing certificates, assembly history. They might find something. Whether they share anything with us is another matter; but I doubt there's anything else we can do."

"Hmm." Dax wondered what might happen if the Commission found that assembly records showed that the probe was improperly constructed. _Would they tell us?_

Sisko looked down and sighed heavily. "Tomorrow, I'll continue searching the records for any evidence that might shed light on any motive that might impel someone to commit such a horrific act." He looked up again. "I doubt I'll find anything. Well. Is there anything further to discuss tonight? Hearing no further business, you are dismissed."

Dax and O'Brien rose and left the office. Sisko tapped his control panel and ordered the computer to set up a secure communication channel to Commissioner Young. The conversation with Commissioner Young was brief. Sisko explained what had been done and what had been learned, and Young listened without comment. When Sisko asked her for information about her examination of the probe assembly facilities, she responded curtly that such information was classified above his level of clearance. Sisko inquired into whether the Commission might be able to identify the exact probe that had exploded, and whether the Commission could tell him anything about that particular probe. He received the same response. Sisko then asked whether anything had been learned from examination of _Surveyor_ , and Young once again told him the information was classified.

When Sisko said he'd heard that _Observer_ and _Surveyor_ were treated differently in the assignments they received, and he asked whether there was any basis for such a belief, Young became testy.

"Why are you asking about _Surveyor_? _Surveyor_ has nothing to do with this incident. Focus on _Observer_ , Commander Sisko."


	10. Chapter 10

CHAPTER 10

The next morning, Sisko woke at his usual time. He ate a modest breakfast in his quarters. He wasn't very hungry.

His conversation with Commissioner Young had been largely unproductive, but her reaction to his questions was not entirely unexpected.

As he ate, Sisko decided to review whatever unclassified materials he could find about whether the missions assigned to _Observer_ were different than those assigned to _Surveyor_.

It turned out that the two ships _were_ treated disparately. There seemed to be little question about it. In addition to the Gamma Quadrant mission and the binary gas giants mission, Sisko found several indications that _Observer_ was generally regarded as superior to _Surveyor_.

There were several notable scientific publications about planetary behavior that used data collected as part of the Gas Giant Mapping Project. All of these scientific publications involved data collected by _Observer_ ; none involved _Surveyor_. One publication flatly stated that _Observer_ was typically assigned the more difficult missions, the time-critical missions, and the more prestigious research missions.

Starfleet records showed that nearly all of the awards and citations for service in gas giant mapping went to the personnel of the _Observer_.

Another unclassified report suggested that this favoritism was not based upon prejudice, but upon performance. _Observer_ got the more interesting assignments because it was better at the job and had a higher success rate. According to one source, when it came to time-critical missions, _Observer's_ record of success was significantly superior to that of _Surveyor_. So if the mission was time-critical, then it would usually go to _Observer_.

This same report mentioned that, in the first years of mapping, the performance of _Surveyor_ and the performance of _Observer_ were roughly equal. But beginning about three years ago, _Observer_ began to demonstrate that it was faster and more efficient, as measured by several metrics.

Sisko was frustrated by the fact that none of these unclassified documents included any of the metrics, and the documents also omitted actual statistics and important details. It would be nice, Sisko thought, to see how performance is assessed, and see how well the crews of the two ships actually did with respect to the criteria used to measure performance.

Sisko was further bothered by the fact that there was no definition in any of the unclassified documents as to what made a mission "time-critical."

After finishing his breakfast, he went up to Ops. He found Bashir waiting outside his office.

"Good morning, Doctor."

Bashir's voice was emotionless. "Good morning, sir. I need to speak with you."

"Of course." Sisko entered the office and sat in his chair behind his desk. He motioned for Bashir to sit, but Bashir remained standing, his hands behind his back.

"Sir," Bashir said, "it is my duty to inform you that all of the crew members of the USS _Observer_ are dead."

Sisko was stunned. "Doctor?"

"All of the survivors died a few hours ago. I found their bodies this morning. They're all gone."

Sisko dreaded asking the next question. "Did they expire from neural damage?"

"No, sir. That is, sir, the first six survivors expired principally due to neural damage from exposure to Upsilon Radiation. The remaining ten died by their own hands."

Sisko said nothing for several seconds. The news was unexpected, but Sisko did not find it to be especially surprising. He had personally wondered what he would do if he were in the position of the doomed survivors, and he had thought suicide would be an option that deserved serious consideration. He looked into Bashir's eyes. "How?"

"Dyneuryllin overdoses. Injected. Each of the survivors had injected himself or herself with a bolus equivalent to twelve doses. They died peacefully within minutes, each person in his or her quarters in the medical section."

"Where are their bodies, now?"

"I have placed them in storage in the morgue."

Sisko bit his lip, and asked, "How did they get the Dyneuryllin, Doctor?"

Bashir took a deep breath. "Sir, I hereby present myself for arrest and disciplinary action."

" _Did you inject these people with overdoses of Dyneuryllin, Doctor?!_ "

" _No_ , sir!"

"Somehow, they got their hands on Dyneuryllin and on a hypo, am I right?

"Yes, sir."

"How?!"

Bashir stood silent for a few moments.

Sisko prodded him with a lowered voice. "How, Doctor?"

"Someone took one of my hypos and a case of Dyneuryllin doses from the Infirmary. I do not know who did this, but I have an idea."

"Who?"

"I found the hypo in the hands of Lieutenant Amy Pitts. It appears that she took the hypo to each of her shipmates, and then used the hypo on herself. The, uh, unused doses of Dyneuryllin were in a case next to her body. Lieutenant Pitts was the last to expire."

"Lieutenant Pitts. She brought her shipmates home from the Gamma Quadrant," Sisko said.

"Yes, sir. She brought them home."

Sisko felt a mixture of emotions beginning to rise, but he forced his mind to the business at hand. "Am I to assume that the hypo and the Dyneuryllin were kept in the Infirmary in less-than-secure facilities?"

Bashir nodded. "They were essentially unsecured, yes, sir."

Sisko lowered his eyes. "Consider yourself confined to the station until further notice. I will notify station security and Constable Odo that you do not have authority to leave. Continue your medical duties in the meantime."

"I understand, sir."

"There will be a hearing."

"Of course."

"Deep Space Nine might have to apply for a new chief medical officer."

Bashir swallowed. "Yes, sir."

Sisko stood and faced Bashir.

"Julian. Those people were facing days of pain, severe pain. Worse than any torture, I understand. They had no hope of survival."

"Starfleet Medical is unlikely to see that as an excuse."

"That's not what I mean. What I mean is, that they chose their own course of action, and I am not in any way inclined to say that their choice was unreasonable. In fact, I cannot help but think that the choice your patients made was the best one they could have made. Patients have a right to control their own treatments, don't they, Doctor? They even have a right to declare how they wish to die."

"But there are procedures in place for that, legal safeguards. I do not have a right as a physician to assist a patient in taking his or her own life unless those procedures are followed to the letter. And here, they weren't."

Sisko knew that physician-assisted suicide had never been a viable option for the _Observer_ survivors. The official procedures required, at a minimum, a second opinion from a physician, plus a formal interview with a qualified counselor. The survivors would have perished in agony before those things could be done.

Sisko rubbed his forehead. "Whether your actions were reasonable or careless, proper or improper, I am not in any position to say. That's Starfleet Medical's prerogative." Sisko straightened up and looked at Bashir. "I will inform Commissioner Young of what has happened. If she contacts you with any questions, you should consider yourself subject to severe sanction, and you would therefore be within your rights to refuse to answer them."

"If she asks me anything, I'll cooperate fully. And the same goes for Starfleet Medical: I intend to give my full cooperation."

Sisko couldn't think of anything further to say, so he said, "Dismissed."


	11. Chapter 11

CHAPTER 11

Sisko got a call from O'Brien, asking Sisko to come to the holosuite.

"Something I think you ought to see, sir," was the only explanation O'Brien offered.

Sisko called Dax and asked her to join himself and O'Brien in the holosuite. Sisko wanted to break the news to both Dax and O'Brien at the same time.

Once inside the holosuite, Sisko told Dax and O'Brien that the remaining survivors from the _Observer_ had died. He recounted how it had happened.

"Poor devils," said O'Brien.

"Poor Julian!" said Dax. "He might be facing some serious consequences."

"Very likely, but we have to focus on other things now." Sisko turned to O'Brien. "Chief, what was it you wanted to show me? That is, to show us?"

"Computer," O'Brien called, "run simulation O'Brien Two."

Immediately the walls of the holosuite dissolved, to be replaced by a wrecked interior of a Probe Preparation Bay. Sisko, Dax and O'Brien found themselves standing on what seemed to be a glass floor over a cratered deck littered with debris. The bulkheads were bowed outward and there seemed to be no undamaged equipment in sight. The bench was gone, leaving considerably more room to move around than in the previous holo-simulation.

O'Brien gestured toward his feet. "Except for the platform we're standing on, and except for the artificial lighting, this is what the interior of _Observer's_ Probe Preparation Bay looks like now. As you know, I ordered the computer to re-stitch the scans I made aboard _Observer_. Based upon those scans, this is the most accurate representation of the Bay. In case you're wondering, there are no bodies. They would have been vaporized." O'Brien spoke to the air. "Computer, show blast vectors."

A set of bright blue lines appeared, stretching from the decks and the bulkheads toward the interior of the Bay. The lines did not merge at a single point, but they all seemed to point to the same general location inside the Bay, a space that was a little lower than head-high, and was off center of the Bay.

"The computer looks at deformation of the bulkheads and decks, as well as debris locations and other things, to estimate where the explosion originated," O'Brien explained. He pointed to the space where the blue lines generally converged. His hand passed through the lines without disturbing them. "This is the place where the explosion occurred."

Sisko and Dax nodded. O'Brien gestured to them with an empty palm. "Sir, Lieutenant, would you please come this way? Let's stand over here. Okay, good. Now, watch this. Computer, correlate with undamaged Bay layout as shown in simulation 'Summary.' Map the blast vectors to the undamaged Bay."

The wrecked Bay dissolved and the pristine Probe Preparation Bay appeared. Sisko, Dax and O'Brien were standing on an undamaged deck. The bench appeared in the center of the Bay, at the site where Sisko and Dax had been standing some seconds earlier. Instruments materialized on the undamaged walls. The blue lines shifted slightly, but they still pointed to the same general region in the Bay.

Sisko saw the problem at once. " _The explosion did not occur while the probe was on the bench!_ "

"That's right. No question about it. The explosion is about the right height above the deck for the probe to be on the bench, but there is no bench supporting it."

"What was the probe doing there, any idea?" Dax asked.

"I don't know." O'Brien held his hand in the region of blast source. "As far as I'm able to tell, the probe is not supposed to be there at all, under _any_ circumstances. Not when moved to or from the bench, not when moved to or from the Locker, not even if it's a FTP being returned to the Locker. When I first saw the lopsided damage caused by the explosion I had thought maybe the probe was a little bit displaced from where it ought to be. I was shocked to find the displacement to be this much."

"How'd they get it there?" Sisko asked. "Did they lift it?"

"The probe is too heavy for these two men to lift," O'Brien replied. My guess is that they had the probe suspended from the crane and then used the crane to take it over there. That's the only way I can think of to do it. As for _why_ they'd do it, that's a mystery to me."

"I may be wrong," Sisko said, "but I think you've found a really big piece to the puzzle, Chief."

"What does this tell us?" Dax asked.

"For one thing," Sisko responded, "it may mean that the procedures that _Observer_ was supposed to be following weren't actually being followed when the explosion occurred."


	12. Chapter 12

CHAPTER 12

O'Brien's discovery about the location of the source seemed to be a major discovery, but Dax still couldn't quite figure out what it meant. So the probe was in the wrong place. There still were the safety systems to prevent detonation. How would moving the probe affect them? For that matter, how would moving the probe contribute to the explosion at all?

Dax set the issue aside for the time being. She had other things to do. She spoke to Lieutenant Lauren again, this time in the company of the rest of the probe team from _Surveyor_.

Dax learned very little. _Surveyor's_ probe team remained baffled about what had happened. Team members used the word "impossible" frequently. They had no theories, not even any wild guesses, as to how it might have occurred; and they had no suggestions for any avenues of investigation.

But there was one development of some interest. The _Surveyor_ probe team had recently been questioned at length by two of the Commissioners, named Fetterie and Nguyen.

"We told them that we didn't have any idea how the explosion occurred," said Lieutenant Lauren. "We told them basically what I told you before."

"They were interested in _how_ it could've happened," piped up Lieutenant Terry Costello. "But they seemed to be even more interested in _why_ it happened." Other members of _Surveyor's_ probe team nodded in agreement with this remark.

Lauren picked up the point. "I got the clear impression that these two Commissioners were operating on the assumption that members of the _Observer_ probe team had deliberately conspired to kill everyone aboard the ship." Again the other members of the probe team nodded in agreement. "They kept asking us about possible motivations or grievances. And they seemed to think that some people aboard _Observer_ had come up with a plot to kill everyone, and they decided to carry it out in the Gamma Quadrant. There were lots of questions about the Gamma Quadrant." More nods from the probe team.

"It made no sense to me," remarked Lieutenant Kirk Rusk. "Even if there had been a conspiracy, it was impossible to carry it out."

"And what would be the point of doing it in the Gamma Quadrant?" muttered someone, but Dax couldn't see who had said it.

Costello spoke again: "They asked if we personally knew any of the people on _Observer's_ probe team. I told them I knew Ginny Rogg; we had been classmates about four years ago. They were really interested that I knew her, and they asked me a whole bunch of questions about her: 'Did she say anything about going to the Gamma Quadrant?' 'Was she a happy person?' 'Did she have any enemies?' That type of thing. I told them that, as far as I knew, Ginny was super-smart, but basically a normal person."

Abruptly, the conversation changed, as the _Surveyor_ probe team pressed Dax to reveal whether she had learned anything as to how the explosion had happened. Dax had decided not to share the discovery that the explosion had apparently originated at an unexpected location within the Bay, and she also felt it inappropriate to mention that all of members of _Observer's_ crew were now dead.

The _Surveyor_ probe team expressed disappointment that Dax could not enlighten them in any way. It was on that note that the conversation ended.

Dax then directed her attention to interviewing Lieutenant Camille Gaulle. Lieutenant Gaulle had been a member of _Observer's_ probe team for over two years. About four months ago, she took family medical leave to help care for her husband. Gaulle and her husband currently resided on Starbase 12.

When Dax set up the meeting, she thought things might be delicate. That Gaulle had left space duty to care for her husband suggested that her husband's medical condition was serious. None of the information available to Dax disclosed the medical condition of Gaulle's husband, however, and Dax had no idea how well he might be doing, or even whether Gaulle could spare the time to answer questions.

At the appointed time, Dax opened a secure channel to Starbase 12. Gaulle's face appeared, and the display informed Dax that both sides of the communication were secure.

Dax identified herself, and confirmed Gaulle's identification. Dax explained that she had been assigned to investigate the circumstances surrounding an incident aboard the USS _Observer_.

"You have heard what happened to the _Observer_ , I assume," Dax said.

"Yes."

"You were a member of the probe team aboard _Observer_ until a few months ago."

Gaulle took a few moments before answering. "I was, yes."

"Let me extend to you my condolences on the losses of your shipmates."

"Thank you."

"And you were stationed on board _Observer_ for a little over two years, is that right?"

Gaulle did not answer. Dax was about to repeat the question, when Gaulle spoke.

"I am sorry, Lieutenant, but I am not in any position to answer any questions."

"May I ask why?"

"All information about probe operations is highly confidential. Certainly you know that."

"I do, and I have Gold clearance."

"I don't care what clearance you claim to have. I cannot talk about probe operations aboard _Observer_. In case you didn't know, the penalties I face for talking to you are very severe. I won't put myself into a position where I might get into trouble. My husband needs me right now; I don't have time to deal with this sort of thing."

"If you like, I'll speak to Commissioner Young," Dax offered. "Perhaps she could assure you that there won't be any trouble."

"I don't care if you get the President of the Federation to talk to me. I won't take that risk."

And with that, Gaulle terminated the communication.

Dax reported the conversations to Sisko.

Sisko was not surprised to hear that some of the Commissioners were thinking along the lines that the explosion had been a deliberate act. The Commission itself had been responsible for evaluating and selecting _Observer's_ probe team, and if that same probe team had willfully acted to kill over a hundred people, then the Commissioners themselves might be blamed for not being thorough in their evaluation and selection of the probe team.

And besides, he had to admit that there were some pretty good reasons to think that the explosion was caused deliberately.

Sisko was more interested in Gaulle's reaction to Dax's questioning. "Did any of the _Surveyor_ people express this level of concern about the consequences of revealing confidential information?"

"Not really, no."

"Do you think Gaulle was trying to cover something up?"

Dax squinted. "Hard to say. She may simply have been, as she claimed, very cautious about talking to me. The legal consequences for breaking confidentiality are indeed serious, and she said she didn't want to risk being taken from her husband's side."

"I see."

"I offered to try to get Commissioner Young to give her authorization to speak, but Gaulle said that wouldn't change her mind."

Sisko loosed a brief chuckle. "I'm not sure Commissioner Young would give authorization, anyway. I spoke to the Commissioner about an hour ago. I asked again whether we might know the results of inspections of probe assembly facilities. She said that the Commission is satisfied that there were no manufacturing problems, and the reasons for that conclusion are classified. She also told me that the Commission is satisfied that there is no relevant evidence that was found on _Surveyor_ , and that everything about _Surveyor_ was classified. I asked about records of _Observer_ missions. Classified. I said I wanted to see statistics bearing upon the performance of _Observer_. Classified. I thought I made a strong case, saying that it seems pretty likely that _Observer_ did something on this mission that was different than what it had done on previous missions, so it would be helpful to know what had been done on previous missions. Still classified."

"She's obstructing us, stonewalling us."

Sisko made a face. "I don't think so. I think she's just overly cautious. Unlike Lieutenant Gaulle, Commissioner Young is not worried about punishment; she's more concerned that we'll lose the focus of the investigation, engage in 'fishing expeditions,' go off on tangents. But if we could make a stronger case that we needed some information, really needed it and it was essential to the focus of our investigation, then maybe she would find a way to let us have it."

"Did you tell her about what Chief O'Brien's explosion reconstruction showed?"

"Yes. She had no comment, except to say that O'Brien must be in error and that he probably did not know what he was doing."

"Is that Young talking, or Stoan?"

"Probably a little of both."

They smiled.

"Dax, I did receive some information from Young, and though it was sparse, it was informative. I asked for a working definition of a 'time-critical' mapping mission. She explained that mapping a gas giant takes usually between twenty and forty probes, depending on several factors, but mostly the planet's size and rate of rotation. These probes have to be launched and detonated fairly deep in the planet's atmosphere while the planet is undergoing a process called 'deep inversion.' If the planet is not undergoing deep inversion, the Upsilon Radiation generated by the probes does not capture any useful information. So, if there's a gas giant that you want to map, you have to wait for it to undergo deep inversion. When the deep inversion begins, that deep inversion can be detected with standard sensors, and a research ship, such as _Observer_ or _Surveyor_ , can be dispatched to map the gas giant. Are you with me so far?"

"Yes."

"Well, it turns out that not all gas giants go through deep inversion for the same duration. Some of them are in deep inversion for a month or longer. But for some, deep inversion begins and ends in a matter of days, or even hours. The time window for mapping some gas giants can be quite small. And when the time window is small, the mapping mission is considered to be 'time-critical.'"

"Okay, I'm following you."

"Most time-critical missions were assigned to _Observer_."

Dax nodded. "Because, compared to _Surveyor_ , _Observer_ was faster and more efficient."

"Right, or at least, that's what everyone _thinks_ is right. Now here's what I think is the interesting part. Suppose you're aboard a mapping ship, and you are assigned to map a gas giant, and the mission is time-critical. Your window of opportunity is just a matter of days, but by the time you get there, your time window is down to a matter of hours. Now suppose that, due to the size of the planet you need to map, it will take thirty probes, at a minimum, to perform a complete mapping. So probes are launched, and detonated, and readings are taken. But the time window closes, and you've only got readings from, say, twenty-five probes. You can't get the full thirty readings you'd like to get. What do you suppose happens?"

"You have to go with incomplete data?" Dax guessed. "Or you have to wait for another deep inversion to finish getting your readings?"

"No. According to Commissioner Young, you have to discard _all_ the data you've collected. Incomplete data is mathematically ambiguous and is effectively useless in predicting planetary behavior."

Dax was surprised. "Really?"

"The term officially used is an 'incomplete mapping,' but in reality, the mission is deemed to be a flat-out failure. So, as Young explained, it's certainly understandable that an incomplete mapping is a highly undesirable outcome for a mapping ship. Young also said that an incomplete mapping is generally seen as reflecting badly on the ship in general and the probe team in particular."

"Because they couldn't get the job done in time."

"Yeah." Sisko paused for a moment. "You know, it seemed odd to me that anyone would think that an incomplete mapping indicates poor performance. As best I can tell, incomplete mappings are often not the fault of the ship or her crew or her probe team."

"No?"

"No. If some of these unclassified reports are right, most incomplete mappings occur because the time window is tight, and because too many probes failed to prime. Typically, one out of eight probes fails to prime, but this is a long-term average. There is no way to prevent a probe from FTP'ing, and no way to assure that the probe will prime itself once launched."

"In other words, you can't simply assume that every eighth probe will be bad. In the long run, twelve and a half percent of probes FTP, but there is no way to know whether a particular probe will FTP."

"Right. It's the luck of the draw; there is no way to know whether a particular probe will FTP until you actually try to prime it. Now. Four years ago, on one mapping mission involving the _Observer_ , thirty probes were to be deployed during a time-critical mission. That meant that on average three or four probes would be expected to FTP. During _actual_ mapping operations, however, a surprising _seven_ probes failed to prime, and this threw _Observer_ way off her schedule."

"To the point that the window of opportunity closed and the mission was an incomplete mapping?"

"Exactly. Officially, no one has ever faulted the _Observer_ for the incomplete mapping. How could they? Whether a probe fails to prime or not is always a matter of luck, and if your luck is bad, you'll get an FTP probe that accomplishes nothing but waste your time. Even so, there were subtle suggestions from various people in Starfleet that this incomplete mapping could have been avoided if _Observer_ had been better at her job. Apparently this subtle criticism affected _Observer's_ crew. I checked the _Observer's_ logs, and they show something interesting. The logs don't talk about the mission, but they do note a plunge in morale following this incomplete mapping."

"But what could _Observer_ have done differently?"

Sisko shrugged. "Nothing, as far as I can tell. For each of those seven probes that failed to prime, _Observer_ had no choice: she had to send out the shuttlecraft to retrieve the probe and return it to the Locker before a new probe could be dispensed. And probe retrieval takes time."

"That's interesting," Dax said, "but does it help us with our investigation?"

"It might. On that mission four years ago, the _Observer's_ time window was narrow: about 31 hours, if I remember correctly. On the mission to the Gamma Quadrant, the time window was also fairly tight: about 33 hours. That got me wondering, Dax, whether the _Observer_ probe team felt rushed; they wanted to avoid the embarrassment of four years earlier. I got wondering whether the probe team cut corners in order to get all of the readings made within the narrow time window."

Dax bit her lip. "Cut corners? You mean compromised safety in the interest of doing the job faster?"

"Yes."

"But, how would the probe team cut corners? All the procedures for probe preparation and launch are carefully controlled. And how would bypassing the safety systems save any time? Seems to me it would cost them time to do it, assuming they could do it at all."

Sisko scowled. "Good points. We don't even know whether they were rushing things here, do we? That may be just one more intriguing-yet-unanswered question I'll have to put in my report."


	13. Chapter 13

CHAPTER 13

"Computer, run simulation O'Brien Three," O'Brien commanded.

The walls of the holosuite dissolved and the undamaged Probe Preparation Bay appeared. Sisko, Dax and O'Brien stood near the entrance to the Bay.

"Show blast vectors," O'Brien commanded, and blue lines filled the Bay, radiating from a particular location in the Bay, about a meter away from the bench.

"Now, show blast simulation in slow motion," O'Brien commanded. Where the blue lines had converged a yellow-orange ball appeared, about forty centimeters in diameter. As Sisko, Dax and O'Brien watched, the blue lines disappeared, and the ball expended. As the ball encountered an object, it affected the object in some way. When the ball grew to the point that it encountered the bench, the bench broke into pieces and the pieces were hurled toward the deck. When the ball encountered a bulkhead, it pushed the bulkhead outward. When the ball encountered equipment in the Bay, the equipment was wrecked and thrown about.

After about ten seconds, the ball had expanded to fill the Bay, and the simulated explosion was over. Once again, Sisko, Dax and O'Brien were standing on what seemed to be a glass floor, looking at a wrecked Bay with debris strewn about.

"So, that is what we'd expect a blast from that location to do," O'Brien said. "The deformation of the decks and bulkheads is almost exactly what is shown by my readings from _Observer_."

"So you're confident that you have identified where the explosion took place?" Sisko asked.

O'Brien grinned. "I've learned more than that, sir. Take a look around you. You think you're standing in _Observer's_ Probe Preparation Bay? Well, you're not."

Sisko and Dax exchanged glances.

"Computer," O'Brien announced, "show Probe Preparation Bay from simulation O'Brien Two." The scene abruptly changed. The positions of the decks and bulkheads hardly changed at all.

But the debris inside the Bay had changed a great deal.

O'Brien waved his hands at the wreckage. "This is the debris pattern as it currently exists in _Observer_. It is different, significantly different, from the debris pattern that would be expected to occur."

Dax wasn't buying it right away. "But in an explosion, things don't exactly go where they're expected to go."

"That's true, but I've run several simulations, and none of them gives me anything like this." O'Brien pointed to a pile of unrecognizable components heaped near a bulkhead, then gestured to a pile that has been blasted into a corner. "Or this. What this suggests to me is that _Observer's_ Probe Preparation Bay was not laid out as shown in the unclassified Summary simulation."

"The simulation was wrong?" Sisko asked.

"Not necessarily. It might show accurately how _Surveyor's_ Bay was laid out. But _Observer's_ arrangement seems to have been somewhat different. For one thing, it appears that _Observer's_ bench was about fifty to seventy centimeters," O'Brien gestured, "in this direction."

"In other words, _under_ the source of the explosion," Dax said.

"Yes. If I'm right about that, then the bench is over here, and this would suggest that _the probe exploded while on the bench_. And this debris," he pointed to a place on the cratered deck, "would be remnants of the bench; which, according to my scans, it almost certainly is. I mean, see that fragment there? It's unquestionably from the bench; and it's been blown straight downward into the deck, not laterally."

"So, they moved the bench?" Dax asked.

"It looks that way. But that creates another mystery."

"Which is?" Sisko was intrigued.

"If the bench is where I think it is, there wouldn't be enough space to fit the scanning hardware. And if they needed to move their scanner somewhere, I'm not sure where they'd be able to put it. These slots to the Locker, to the launcher, and return from the shuttlecraft, they're all in fixed places and can't be moved or blocked. I mean, they might have tried to fit the scanner on that bulkhead, but that would make it really awkward to move around in here. So I don't know how they had things set up."

Sisko scratched his head. "I suppose I'll have to ask Commissioner Young about that. But I suspect I know what her response will be."

"It's classified," Dax said.

"Yes. Unless, I can make a case that I really need to know. Maybe I can."


	14. Chapter 14

CHAPTER 14

O'Brien had nearly finished his modeling. He had a life detection system simulator up and running, and his environment assessment simulator and his gravitational simulator were almost ready. He decided to use a simple arrangement of red and green indicator lights to show the status of each of the simulators. Once the simulators were up and running, he and Dax would try various techniques to deactivate them. O'Brien was pretty confident that he'd be able to fool the gravitational sensor, but as for the others, he wasn't so sure.

Stoan had lectured him that the life and environment sensors had excellent safety records. What Stoan said was true; they did. But somehow, those safety systems had not prevented a catastrophe, and O'Brien felt he had to look into how those systems could be evaded, defeated or fooled.

It was not encouraging for O'Brien to be going over territory that Stoan had undoubtedly already covered. When Stoan had designed the safety systems for _Observer_ and _Surveyor_ , he had most certainly tried everything he could imagine to make those systems fail, and he could not make them fail. If Stoan couldn't find a way, what made O'Brien think he could find a way?

"Message coming in for Miles O'Brien," the computer announced. "Secure channel requested."

O'Brien wondered who was trying to contact him. He sat at a desk with a display and gave the computer his security authorization.

Once the authorization was accepted, the unsmiling face of Stoan appeared on the display. O'Brien felt his chest tighten.

"Greetings, Mister O'Brien," Stoan said.

"Greetings to you, Mister Stoan."

Stoan got right down to business. "I have been receiving reports from Commissioner Young. I wished to confirm with you whether the reports are correct in all their details."

"Very well, I'm happy to cooperate." As soon as O'Brien said the word "happy," he regretted it, since Stoan could surely see that O'Brien was not happy at all.

"Is it true that you went onto _Observer_ to obtain detailed scans of _Observer's_ Probe Preparation Bay?"

"Yes, that is true."

"You no doubt had the permission from your commanding officer to do so, but authorization should have been obtained from the Commission. Because your visit was unauthorized, you have committed a serious offense for which an extensive period of penalization may be imposed."

O'Brien rolled his eyes. He didn't know what to say, so he decided to be blunt. "I'm guilty. After this investigation is concluded, you can lock me up."

"The Commission does not wish to lock you up, Mister O'Brien. Commissioner Young has determined that you are not to be charged for the offense. It is within her authority to make this decision."

"Oh."

"Did you make your scans of the _Observer's_ Probe Preparation Bay?"

"Yes, I did."

"Did the scans yield any useful data?"

"Yes, sir, they did. We have used them to generate a holosuite simulation of _Observer's_ Bay as it currently is. We have further been able to determine that the arrangement of the equipment in _Observer's_ Bay is not the same as we had thought. We have also verified that the explosion took place while the probe was on the bench, and that the bench was displaced aft, relative to its previous position, by about seventy centimeters."

Stoan waited several seconds before saying, "Interesting."

"Yes, sir, we think it is."

"Are your scans fabricated?"

O'Brien was taken aback. " _Are you asking whether I falsified my work?_ "

"Yes. Do not be offended by the question. The Bay is protected against all standard sensor scans, so taking interior scans of the Bay ought to be, as a practical matter, impossible. You say that you are in possession of data that there ought to be no way for you to obtain. One reasonable explanation is that you have concocted illegitimate data."

O'Brien felt his chest tightening again. " _My readings were all genuine, sir!_ "

"Explain to me how you obtained them," Stoan demanded.

O'Brien took a deep breath. "Sir, from a distance, it was not possible to make sensor sweeps the Bay interior, but we noticed that there were fringe readings suggesting that the shielding around the Bay had been compromised. Presumably the blast inside the Bay created some small gaps in the shielding."

Stoan listened.

O'Brien went on. "I was able go onto _Observer_ and to use a portable scanner to make scans through the small breaks in the shielding. I made scans through as many breaks as I could identify, some forty scans in all, I believe."

Stoan listened.

"After making my scans, I used the computer to stitch the scans together to reconstruct the Bay interior." O'Brien nodded to indicate that he was finished with his explanation.

Stoan nodded in reply and said, "I would like your scans, including all of the raw data, all reconstructions and any simulations derived therefrom."

"I'll transmit that to you, sir."

"Assuming your scans are authentic and your reconstructions are accurate," Stoan continued, "it may be unwise to place reliance upon them. Indeed, the safety demonstration Summary is limited in its usefulness. Using holographic models for purposes of event reconstruction is likely to introduce error. I base this conclusion upon my experience, which is extensive. If I may advise you, a more prudent course is to create physical representations of the systems and test the physical models rather than the holographic simulations of those systems. You ought to have at your starbase sufficient materials to construct such physical models. You do not need to know the exact arrangement of the apparatus inside the probe, or any other information above your level of security clearance."

" _I'm doing that already!_ " O'Brien exclaimed. "Sir," he added hastily.

Stoan seemed momentarily astonished. "You are?"

"Yes! I expect that I'll soon have simulations of the environment assessment and gravitational safety systems up and running in a few hours. My life detection system simulator is up and running now. Lieutenant Dax, my colleague, will be working with me to explore ways in which the safety systems might fail." O'Brien waited for Stoan to criticize this plan, or to remind O'Brien that this approach was unwise.

Instead, Stoan simply said, "Very well."

When he realized no criticism would be forthcoming, O'Brien hoped that the worst was over and that the conversation would be ending soon. But Stoan had at least one more topic to discuss.

"Mister O'Brien, in our previous conversation, I may have left you with an inaccurate impression, which I would now like to correct. I believe I may have led you to conclude that investigation of failures in the life detection system, the gravitational gradient system and the environment assessment system would be poor uses of your time. The correct impression is that potential causes that are more likely should ordinarily be investigated before the potential causes that are less likely."

"I recognize that, sir."

"In order for the probe to detonate, however, those three safety systems must permit the detonation. It is, therefore, only logical that those systems be included in the investigation. Although these systems have excellent records, it is seemingly the case that they did not provide adequate safety on this occasion. Have I now adequately explained this point?"

"Yes, sir." O'Brien wondered whether this was some sort of apology for Stoan's harshness in their previous conversation. It was, at least, an indication that the present conversation was considerably more pleasant than the earlier one. O'Brien decided to see whether it would remain so. "Would you allow me to ask a question, Mister Stoan? I will try not to ask for any confidential information above my security clearance."

"Ask your question."

"One of the possibilities that has been proposed here is that the probe that exploded had recently been returned to the ship because it had failed to prime."

"That scenario is highly unlikely, for many reasons."

"Yes, and we _agree_ that it is unlikely, sir. But we nevertheless had to recognize that, if the probe were an FTP probe, there would have been a recent time that none of the safety systems would have prevented detonation, and that the only reason the probe did not detonate was that it failed to prime itself."

"True. When the command to detonate is given, the only things left to do are for the probe to prime itself and for the actual detonation to occur. If there is no life nearby, and if the environment and gravity are correct, the safety systems will have deactivated all guards and interlocks that prevent detonation."

"And a probe that fails to prime must be retrieved. The probe propels itself out of the planet's atmosphere, and the _Observer_ has to dispatch a shuttlecraft to get it."

"Correct. According to the terms of the Convention and the Commission's charter, all probes must be accounted for and no undetonated or active probe is permitted to remain in the environment."

"Okay, so when the probe comes out of the planet's atmosphere to rendezvous with the shuttlecraft, we assume that all of those safety systems that have disengaged are supposed to automatically re-engage. Are we correct?"

"Of course," Stoan replied promptly, and then he raised a finger as if he were going to add something. He kept his finger raised for nearly half a minute, then spoke again. "Intriguing. I see the logic of your question. You are suggesting that a probe's safety systems had been fully disengaged, and the possible mode of failure is that, for some reasons, some or all of those systems have failed to re-engage."

"Yes, sir."

"That is an interesting line of inquiry. This is exactly the kind of thinking I try to encourage in my students. Well done."

O'Brien felt a surge of pride. "Thank you, sir!"

"However, the scenario is patently absurd."

"Uh." The pride disappeared at once.

"But still intriguing."

"Uh."

"Mister O'Brien," Stoan spoke professorially, "you do recognize that I am not permitted to explain all of the details of the probe to you. But there are some things I can tell you that may make your investigation more productive and less likely to follow absurd hypotheses. First. After a probe fails to prime, the Probe Control Station immediately withdraws authorization to detonate, thereby immediately re-activating numerous safety interlocks within the probe. These interlocks prevent detonation. Second. Even if the Probe Control Station fails to withdraw authorization, numerous automatic safety systems re-engage, and these safety systems prevent detonation. The life detection system, the environment assessment system and the gravitational gradient system are all fail-safe systems. This means that unless they are affirmatively deactivated by the probe itself, the probe will not detonate."

"I understand, sir."

"I believe you are aware that the probe detonates when a component called a 'striker' physically impacts a component called a 'core.' Is this correct?"

"I am aware of that, sir."

"In the case of the life detection system, for example, there is a collapsible barrier that is interposed between the striker and the core. That barrier is always in place, preventing detonation, unless the life sensor affirmatively registers a 'no life' reading. Then, and only then, will the barrier be moved out of the way. If there is a life reading or an ambiguous reading, then the barrier will not be moved; or if the barrier has already been moved, it will be moved back to its interposing position. So when the shuttlecraft comes to collect a probe that has failed to prime, the life sensor detects the life forms aboard the shuttlecraft long before the shuttlecraft actually arrives, and moves the barrier back into position between the striker and core."

"I see, sir."

"The environmental system is somewhat different. It includes physical locking elements that are interposed between certain mechanical components. These locking elements must physically withdraw in order to release the priming apparatus and the striker, and thus for detonation to occur. When the probe descends deep into the planet's atmosphere and senses a proper pressure and atmospheric chemistry and temperature, the sensor registers a 'proper environment' reading, and the locking elements are drawn back. When the probe rises out of the atmosphere, long before the shuttlecraft arrives to retrieve it, there is no longer a 'proper environment' reading, and the locking elements re-engage."

"I understand, sir."

"The gravitational gradient system is similar, but with different locking elements in different positions. The gravitational gradient sensor will detect an incorrect gravitational gradient at least thirty minutes before the shuttlecraft is able to retrieve it, and will re-engage its interlocks."

"Thank you for the explanation, sir. It's very helpful." O'Brien was mostly being gracious. He wasn't sure he'd learned anything new, except that shuttlecraft retrieval took thirty minutes, at a minimum, and that did not count the time needed for the shuttlecraft to get to the probe, or the time needed for the shuttlecraft to return the probe to the ship.

"Have I now explained to you how and why the safety systems of an FTP probe re-engage?"

"Yes, sir, you have explained it very well. I was wondering, though, sir, whether electromagnetic shear may have affected the functionality of the guards or interlocks when a probe attempts to prime, preventing or perhaps hindering re-engagement."

Stoan pondered the question for several seconds. "Highly unlikely. The electromagnetic fields associated with priming are regulated so that only the core is affected; components that are away from the core avoid significant electromagnetic shear from priming. When priming occurs, there are no such components in proximity to the core." Stoan looked like he wanted to say more, but he abruptly stopped speaking.

O'Brien thought he knew why. "I take it, sir, that explaining this further would be conveying information above my security clearance?"

"Correct. I am not permitted to explain the arrangement of the components to you. It is sufficient for you know that the chance of electromagnetic shear preventing re-engagement of all safety systems is negligible, and that detonation cannot occur if any of the safety systems re-engage. That is, even if all of the systems, save one, should fail to re-engage, the remaining system will make the probe safe to handle. In the case of the automatic safety systems, all three systems would have to fail to re-engage, and this is highly unlikely."

"Yes, sir."

"And let us not forget that a retrieved probe has failed to prime, and cannot detonate for that reason alone."

"Yes, sir, I understand."

"So the hypothesis that the probe in question was a recently-retrieved FTP probe is highly unlikely. Even so, the line of inquiry is intriguing. Quite remarkable. I shall think upon it further."

"Yes, sir. Thank you, sir." O'Brien wondered what could _possibly_ be intriguing or remarkable to Stoan. It seemed to O'Brien that Stoan had utterly demolished the notion that the probe that exploded could have been an FTP. Yet Stoan had done so in a relatively pleasant and scholastic manner, and O'Brien had not felt himself or his credibility to be personally under attack.

"I shall expect to receive your raw data and derivative works within the hour."

"Yes, sir."

"I am traveling in the company of four other members of the Commission. We have just secured towing and escort vessels that will take control of _Observer_ and tow _Observer_ to a secure location. We will be arriving at your station in approximately five days. I will, at that time, be expecting to receive all other materials that you have collected or generated."

"Of course, sir." As a courtesy, O'Brien added, "I'm looking forward to meeting you."


	15. Chapter 15

CHAPTER 15

Doctor Bashir sat in Quark's bar sipping a drink that had a name he could not pronounce. He had asked Quark for a drink that would make him "more optimistic." Quark said he knew just the thing, and produced a mug of tart-smelling liquid that resembled olive oil.

The drink was surprisingly good. When Bashir said that he wanted to know what the drink was, in case he wished to order it again, Quark uttered a word that included chaotic hissing sounds. Bashir didn't even try to repeat the name.

Quark could see that Bashir was in no mood for conversation, so he left him alone. Quark was fully aware of Bashir's situation. It was known throughout the station that most of the survivors from _Observer_ had taken their own lives while under his care, and that Doctor Bashir might be held responsible for their deaths.

"Would you like another, Doc?" Quark asked, seeing that Bashir had emptied his mug.

"Yes, please."

A voice interrupted: "Doctor Bashir, medical emergency, please report to the Infirmary."

Bashir responded, "On my way," and rose from his seat. "Save that drink for later, Quark."

"You got it, Doc."

As Bashir walked briskly toward the Infirmary, he noticed that he was having difficulty moving in a straight path. Bashir felt horror in the notion that he might have to address a medical emergency, yet he was intoxicated, albeit mildly intoxicated. He was not so intoxicated that he was staggering, or that his speech was slurred, or that his motor skills were severely compromised, or that he could not relate to his surroundings; but he was affected. What was he doing, drinking that stuff in the first place?

Upon arrival in the Infirmary, he found his assistant in an examination room, taking readings on a patient.

The patient was Jadzia Dax. She was wincing and holding her hand in the air while the assistant scanned it with a medical tricorder. Bashir saw no blood, no laceration, no deformity in the hand. He quickly assessed his own ability to practice medicine, and felt that the effects of his drink were not an impediment.

"What happened to you, Jadzia?"

"I was trying to assemble a circuit, and I got a jolt in my hand." The stress in her voice was obvious.

The assistant gave Bashir the tricorder, and Bashir scanned the readings.

"Yes, I see. Nothing to worry about."

"I'm not worrying, I'm _hurting_! It _hurts_ , Julian!" Dax was more interested in action than in reassurances.

Bashir retrieved an instrument and placed it over the back of Dax's hand. At Bashir's prompting, the assistant held Dax's wrist. "Wiggle your fingers," Bashir ordered.

"I can't. It hurts too much."

"Try."

Dax began wiggling her fingers. The pain was initially sharp and Dax winced, but the more she wiggled, the less severe the pain was. "It's feeling better," she said eventually.

Bashir moved the instrument to the palm of her hand. "Keep wiggling," he instructed.

She did, and the pain subsided further, until she could no longer feel it. "The pain's gone," she announced.

"You can stop wiggling your fingers."

Dax stopped wiggling, and the assistant released her wrist. Dax opened and closed her fist, and flexed her hand this way and that. She smiled.

"You had what some call 'Indigo Syndrome,'" Bashir said. "It's painful, but easy to treat. Indigo Syndrome is essentially a combination of stimulation and accompanying paralysis of the nerves, muscles and tendons, in this case, the nerves, muscles and tendons of your hand. You've been working with energy masks, I assume. They can cause Indigo if you get too close."

Instead of responding to what Bashir had just said, Dax turned to Bashir's assistant. "Thanks for your help. Would you please excuse us?"

Bashir dismissed the assistant with a wave, and the assistant nodded and left. When the door to the examination room slid closed, Dax turned to Bashir.

"This happened," Dax wiggled her fingers again, "as part of the tests that Miles and I are conducting. He's built simulator systems that resemble the safety systems aboard _Observer_. Somehow, those systems aboard _Observer_ failed, and we're trying to see whether we can make our simulated safety systems fail. One of my ideas was to try camouflage to see whether I could hide our life signs from the life sensor."

"Hence, the energy masks."

"Yes."

"I'm curious. Can you tell me whether you've had any luck?"

Dax nodded. "Actually, we have. Miles says he's able to 'spoof,' that is, to trick, the gravitational sensor."

"So, you're closer, at least in theory, to your goal of intentionally causing a probe detonation."

"Yes. If we assume that the Probe Control Station, for whatever reason, gave a command to detonate, then there are only two safety systems in the way: life and environment. But those two systems are very hard to spoof. We're trying everything we can think of trying. We've used every instrument they had in the Probe Preparation Bay to try to fool the sensors. We're starting to try things that they didn't have in the Bay, or at least, things they weren't supposed to have in the Bay."

"Wish I could help," Bashir said, "but I don't have any ideas as to what else you might try."

There was a pause. Dax had wanted to ask something, and she decided she could not keep it to herself any longer. "Julian, when will Starfleet Medical begin its investigation into, you know, the deaths of the last ten crew members of _Observer_?"

"The investigation has already begun." I underwent an initial interview by subspace this morning. It lasted about an hour."

"And?"

"And," Bashir drew a breath, "I don't know. Officially, it's confidential."

"I have a high security clearance," Dax pressed, half-joking. " _Julian, what happened?_ "

Bashir smiled slightly. He decided to tell. "The investigator didn't really say much. They're satisfied that I did not inject the patients myself and that I did not play an active role. I was, after all, asleep at the time. My hypos weren't secured, but as the investigator acknowledged, it is not required by medical regulation or standard practice that hypos be secured so that only a physician can get them. The Dyneuryllin wasn't secured either. But Dyneuryllin, even Grade Orange Dyneuryllin, is not deemed hazardous in normal doses, and it is not addictive, and it has no serious side-effects in normal doses, and it isn't widely abused. In short, there is no requirement that the Dyneuryllin be secured."

Dax started to smile. "That all sounds like good news. It sounds like you haven't broken any rules."

"I suppose so. Still. Ten patients died under my care."

"But what did you do that might have been wrong? There isn't anything, is there?"

Bashir sighed. "I wasn't conducting constant medical monitoring, for one thing. If I had, I've have been notified as soon as the first patient overdosed on Dyneuryllin, and I'd have been able to put a stop to further overdoses."

"Was constant medical monitoring required by regulation or rules of practice?"

"No. It is left to my discretion. But Starfleet Medical might rule that I should have used it in this situation anyway. It is possible that Starfleet Medical could question whether I'd replicated too much of the medication, though I think that is unlikely." Bashir lowered his eyes. "They also might question whether I should have been fully honest with my patients. When I told them that I was unlikely to find any effective treatment or cure, I may have taken away any last hope that they may have had. So Starfleet Medical might find that I prompted them to do what they did."

"Starfleet Medical can't punish you for being truthful, can they?"

"I don't know. They might find fault with me in other ways as well. I will just have to wait and see, I suppose. The next step, I understand, is that I will have to appear before a Board of Inquiry."

"When?"

"I don't know. The Board will probably want to come to Deep Space Nine to inspect my medical facilities. But how soon, I don't know."

"Will they want to do autopsies?"

"No. They're satisfied with my reports on the causes of death. There won't be any bodies here for them to autopsy, anyway. The remains of the sixteen people beamed off _Observer_ are scheduled to be moved away from here by an honor guard in about eight hours, to a secret destination. Those members of the crew that didn't get beamed off will remain with _Observer_ for the time being, or so I'm told. The _Observer_ is going to be towed somewhere, presumably to the same secret destination. And then, those other crew members will be taken care of."

There seemed to be nothing further to say. Bashir scanned Dax's hand one more time. He and Dax were satisfied that the injury had been addressed, and there should be no adverse aftereffects. Dax thanked him and departed.

Bashir took a few steps out of the examination room. He walked in a true line. He could no longer feel the effects of his drink. But strangely, he did feel considerably more optimistic, more optimistic than he had felt in days.

"That was a nice drink, Quark," he said under his breath.


	16. Chapter 16

CHAPTER 16

"I think I know why the bench in _Observer_ was moved," Sisko announced. Sisko was standing in the holosuite simulation of the probe preparation Bay along with Dax and O'Brien. "It was to make room for different equipment. Computer, move the bench from its original location to its new location."

The bench dissolved, and reappeared about three-quarters of a meter away.

"Now," Sisko said, "look at how little room there is between the bench and the scanner. A person could hardly fit in there. So, we do this: Computer, remove scanner." The scanner dissolved. "There! Now there's room to move around the bench."

"But there _has_ to be a short-range scanner," O'Brien protested. "The probe team needs to make scans, so they have to have a scanner. And if you move the bench like that, there's no good place to put it."

"Isn't there?" Sisko smiled. He knew something, but he wasn't going to let Dax and O'Brien in on the secret just yet. "Chief: what kind of scanner was in this Bay?"

O'Brien thought for a moment, and answered, "A 1400 series. Probably a 1424 or a 1430."

"It was a 1430," Sisko said. "I checked. Used to scan cargo, mechanical equipment, propulsion systems, all sorts of things. It's a standard scanner, used all over Starfleet. There's nothing special about it, and its design is not top secret. As far as I can tell, it was not physically modified for use with these probes. The only top secret things about it are the programmed scanning routines that it runs."

"Benjamin?" Dax was hoping to get Sisko to get to the point.

"And just over three years ago, _Observer's_ model 1430 scanner was removed. I know this because the removal is mentioned in the ship's logs. It's not a classified piece of hardware, and it is listed as one of the components that was replaced during a layover at a starbase."

"It was the scanner in this Probe Prep Bay that was removed, you're sure?" O'Brien wondered.

Sisko smiled again, and asked rhetorically, "How many 1430 scanners do you suppose were on _Observer_?"

"I'd suppose just this one," O'Brien answered, thinking it ought to be easy to verify, and that Sisko probably had already verified it. "Do the logs say what was wrong with it?"

"Yes. They said it was registering intermittent ghost images."

"That's a pretty non-specific complaint, and hard to verify," O'Brien smirked, "but it's not necessarily frivolous, either. Assuming the scanner was acting up, it might slow down probe preparation. Hard to say by how much, though. It would be an annoyance, no doubt about that."

Dax still didn't see what this all meant. "So they had a quirky scanner, and they replaced it with another scanner?"

"That's right," Sisko said. "They replaced it with another piece of standard, unclassified hardware. But it wasn't a model 1430 scanner. It was a model 1706 scanner."

Dax still didn't see. "So?"

O'Brien got part of it. "Well, for one thing, a 1706 could fit in this corner right here; a 1430 couldn't. Also, if you took out the old 1430, the 1706 wouldn't fit where the 1430 had been."

"Computer," Sisko announced, "show 1706 scanner." A set of boxy components materialized in a corner. The fit was perfect, and with the bench moved to a new location, this placement of the scanner left adequate space for personnel to move about the Bay. Sisko looked at O'Brien and Dax. "So, I ask you, does this make sense? One scanner goes out, and another comes in. And to accommodate the new scanner, they move the bench."

It made sense to O'Brien and Dax.

"Now, answer me this." Sisko paused for effect. "Other than the overall shape, what is the difference between a model 1706 scanner and a model 1430 scanner?"

O'Brien answered, "I don't think that there is much difference. They both do the same things in the same way. The same programmed scanning routines would run on both models. They use the same auxiliaries in the bulkheads. The 1706 might be a little faster, but not appreciably so. The 1706 might also have some additional functional capabilities, but those are capabilities that _Observer_ wouldn't use, just as there are some functionalities of the 1430 that _Observer_ wouldn't use. Why? Do you think that this different scanner model might be to blame?"

"I don't know. All I do know is this. Just over three years ago, _Observer_ received a new scanner. And just about three years ago, _Observer_ started showing that it was faster and more efficient than _Surveyor_. _Observer_ started to get its reputation for being the better mapping ship, and it started getting the better assignments. Now, that timing might just be coincidence." The tone of Sisko's voice suggested he wasn't sure it really was coincidence.

O'Brien didn't see a connection. "Did _Observer_ give any reason for wanting a different model of scanner? Did they say they wanted a faster scanner or anything like that?"

"No. The logs simply said that a 1706 was available. Maybe that means that a replacement 1430 was unavailable."

"Does the Commission know about the change in scanners?" Dax wondered.

Sisko wasn't sure he had an answer. "I find it hard to believe that they didn't know. If they did, perhaps they deemed the change in hardware to be insignificant, for the reasons the Chief just said: no major changes in function."

"Did they know that the equipment in the Bay had to be rearranged to accommodate the new scanner?" Based upon his recent conversation with Stoan, O'Brien wasn't sure that the Commission knew that _Observer's_ Bay was laid out in a manner different from _Surveyor's_.

Sisko didn't have a ready response to that question, either. He offered a small shrug and said, "Maybe they did, maybe they didn't. Maybe they felt, if this new arrangement helped improve efficiency, why make any objection to it?"

Sisko abruptly changed the subject. "Oh, by the way, have you made any headway in finding ways around the safety systems?"

"Yes, we know to a certainty that the gravitational sensor can be spoofed, if someone really wants to fool it,' O'Brien said. "But we haven't yet figured out a way to defeat the environmental sensor or the life sensor."

"And we still don't have any reason why anybody would give a command to detonate," Dax added somberly. She sighed. "Benjamin, that is the one thing that really disturbs me. _Why would anyone do this?_ Why would they do something so terrible, something that would be certain to kill an entire crew? Why would they go to this effort? The chance of all of these safety systems going bad simultaneously, by accident, is beyond astronomical. So someone must have meant to blow up that probe inside the ship. _But why? Why?_ That one question disturbs me."

Sisko listened patiently, his lips pursed. Dax and O'Brien could see he too was troubled.

"This investigation disturbs me, too, for a lot of reasons," he said. "We've learned so much; but what we've learned doesn't seem to _explain_ anything. On the one hand, we think that the explosion cannot be a mistake, it cannot be an accident, because too many things would have to go wrong for it to be an accident. So it _has_ to be intentional. But it _cannot be_ intentional, either, because there's no motive for it and, let's not forget, the systems are all set up to prevent people from doing _exactly_ this sort of thing. Plus, in order for this to be an intentional action, there would _have to be_ collusion between the people in the Bay who remove the safeties and the people at the Control Station who give the command to detonate; and we have precisely zero evidence of any collusion. We have, for that matter, precisely zero evidence of _any_ motive on the part of _any_ of those people to commit such a destructive, hurtful act!"

Sisko took a deep breath and calmed himself for a moment. "So we know one scanner was removed and replaced with a different model three years ago. So what? Does that mean a plot to blow up _Observer_ was three years in the making? So the coded authorization to detonate is given while the probe is still aboard. So what? That doesn't mean that the command to detonate was given as well. So the member of the probe team assigned to the shuttlecraft was away from his post. So what? That couldn't possibly contribute to what happened, and in any event, he could get to his post quickly enough, if he needed to. So the gravitational sensor can be defeated. So what? The other safety systems still work perfectly well, as far as we can determine. So the explosion occurred in the Gamma Quadrant rather than the Alpha Quadrant. So what? The physical laws there are the same as they are here. So the mission in the Gamma Quadrant was time-critical. So what? The _Observer_ had previously handled dozens of time-critical missions without incident. So the _Observer_ gets all the good missions, and _Surveyor_ gets all the poor ones. So what? _So what?_ "

"The answer _must_ be there, Benjamin." Dax's voice included confidence that she did not actually have.

Sisko shook his head. "Maybe. Or maybe it's in the information that the Commission guards so jealously. Maybe we'd be able to bring it into focus if we had the statistics about _Observer's_ previous missions, if we had some basis for identifying those things that really might be significantly unusual. Or maybe information about previous missions won't tell us anything at all. The Commission has surely looked over that data, and it hasn't told them anything."

Sisko threw his hands in the air. "Who knows, maybe the Commission has psychological profiles on members of the probe team that indicate that some people on the probe team were mentally unbalanced. I don't see anything like that in the ship's logs, but maybe the Commission has more detailed profiles. And maybe those profiles show warning signs, and maybe the Commission ignored those warning signs. That's a lot of 'maybes,' I grant. But if those maybes turn out to be true, will they ever tell us? Of course not! Almost every request I've made for additional information has been refused. 'Classified,' is the response; always 'classified.'"

The three officers stood silent for a while.

Eventually Sisko spoke. "If we can't come to any conclusions, I guess we'll just have to tell the Commission that, when they get here."

"In three days," O'Brien added.

"All right. Let's have one more conference at 2100, see where we are. Then we have to start putting together our reports, whether complete or not."


	17. Chapter 17

CHAPTER 17

The conference at 2100 hours was not held. At 1930 hours, O'Brien called Sisko and Dax to the laboratory. His safety system simulators were on small stands, their indicators all glowing green. O'Brien explained that a green indicator meant safe, that is, activated. A red indicator meant that the safety system had been deactivated.

"Watch this," O'Brien said simply. "It takes a while, be patient." He placed a tricorder over one of the simulators and, about forty seconds later, its light switched from green to red.

"That's the gravitational sensor," Dax said.

"Right. And this," O'Brien hefted the tricorder in his hand, "is a geologist's tricorder. Not all geologists' tricorders have graviton emitters, but this one does, and it's a good bet that _Observer_ had one just like it. Deactivation of the gravitational system, it turns out, is fairly easy to do. It takes about forty or fifty seconds for the sensor to respond to a change in gravitational gradient. So you'll notice that the gravitational gradient system is deactivated. And you should notice something else."

It wasn't obvious to Sisko or Dax what the something else was.

O'Brien didn't keep them waiting. "The light is still red. I've got the tricorder here. I'm not administering any gravitons. But the gravity-based safety system is still deactivated."

As if on cue, the light changed from red to green.

"And now, the gravity-based safety system is active once again," O'Brien said. "It has to do with the sensor. Once the sensor is satisfied that the correct gravitational gradients are present, it deactivates the safety. If there's another change in gravity, it takes another forty seconds or so before that change registers. The gravitational gradient sensor is very reliable, but it is also very slow."

"Did _Observer_ have a geologist's tricorder in its Bay?" Sisko asked.

"We don't know," O'Brien said. "It's not part of the official equipment in the Bay and I couldn't see one in the re-creation of _Observer's_ probe preparation Bay. Some parts of my scans didn't have very good resolution, so it could be there, blown to pieces, I don't know. But I do know that _Observer_ had several models of tricorders on board. I also know that, if they had a tricorder with a graviton emitter, programming it to issue graviton pulses is fairly straightforward. Strictly speaking, you could do the same thing with other pieces of equipment, but a geologist's tricorder would be the most obvious choice." O'Brien stepped up to the next sensor. "Now, watch this."

O'Brien pulled a wand-shaped instrument from the wall and placed it near the simulator.

The light changed from green to red.

" _How did you do that?!_ " Dax exclaimed.

" _Which system is that?!_ " Sisko demanded to know.

"This is the environmental system," O'Brien said. He hefted the wand, and as soon as moved it away from the simulator, its light promptly changed from red to green. "And this is a wand-type active scanning emitter bank. It can generate wave-particle reps having various desirable characteristics. In particular, it can emit a signal that mimics the composition, temperature and pressure of the lower atmosphere of a gas giant."

"Did they have something like that wand aboard _Observer_?" Sisko was nearly breathless.

"They did. Prepare yourself for a shock, sir. They had, in fact, this very type of an emitter bank in the Probe Preparation Bay. An emitter bank like this is _standard_ on a model 1706 scanner."

Sisko could feel his heart rate speed up.

O'Brien continued. "An emitter bank is useful for several types of close active scans, but that functionality was unnecessary for _Observer_. _Officially_ unnecessary, anyway. The crew of _Observer_ didn't need an emitter bank to do probe scans. But whether _Observer needed_ an emitter bank or not, _it had one_."

"Could _Observer's_ emitter bank have been set up to do what you just showed us?"

"Absolutely. I was able to program this wand in about an hour and a half. It took quite a bit of trial and error, but still doable. The wand can't do gravitons, in case you're wondering, so you'd still need something else like the tricorder to spoof the gravitational sensor. But this wand is fully capable of spoofing the environmental sensor, no question about it."

"It _can't_ be a coincidence that _Observer_ just happened to have in its Bay an instrument that could defeat one of the safety systems," Sisko intoned.

"It's hard to see it as a mere coincidence," O'Brien agreed.

Dax summed things up. "So of all of the safety systems, the only one left is the life detection system. All of the other safeties could be neutralized. And a detonation command could have been given. Only the life system stands in the way."

"That's right," O'Brien said.

"Chief," Sisko said, "they must have been able to defeat the life detection system as well."

O'Brien shrugged. "If they did, they're geniuses; _dead geniuses_. I can't find a way to do it. None of the literature shows a way to do it. I'm a multi-cellular life form, and when I'm using this wand, I've got to be standing less than a meter away. That sensor _is_ going to detect my life signs no matter what I do. If I were a thousand kilometers away, it might be different; or if I were standing outside the Bay itself with all its sensor shielding, it might be different; but at _this_ proximity, there's _no way_ my life signs _can't_ be detected. And as long as my life signs are detected, a 'no life' signal can't be issued. You can't block the sensor and you can't spoof it. Localized shielding doesn't work. Camouflage doesn't work. Masking doesn't work. Overloading doesn't work. Using this wand doesn't work. Interfering doesn't work. Signal matching doesn't work. Jamming doesn't work. I tell you, sir, this life sensor is a _tough_ son of a bitch. _There's no way to beat it!_ "

Sisko huffed. "Keep at it."

O'Brien had no idea what things he could try that he hadn't tried already, but he answered, "I will."

"We seem to be so close," Sisko said.

"Are we?" Dax asked. "Suppose Miles finds a way to beat that supposedly unbeatable sensor. All that means is that we've found a way that the explosion _could_ have happened, but we haven't necessarily shown that this is how it _actually did_ happen. But even if it did happen that way, doesn't it follow inescapably that the probe team must have plotted to detonate one of the probes on board the ship? There _must_ have been a conspiracy involving the people in the Probe Preparation Bay and the people in Probe Control, because some steps _had_ to be performed in the Bay and other steps _had_ to be performed in Probe Control. And if the members of the probe team _did_ conspire, they must have had some reason or goal for that conspiracy. Are we close to finding any evidence supporting any such a reason or goal?"

Sisko rubbed his eyes. "You're right. We keep coming back to the 'Why?' question." He looked at Dax, then at O'Brien. "Maybe we're not all that close to explaining this incident. But we are close to showing that an event widely thought to be flatly 'impossible' is within the realm of the 'quite possible,' and that is an achievement in itself."


	18. Chapter 18

CHAPTER 18

Commissioner Young was tired, Sisko saw.

He had reported that his team had determined that all of the safety systems could be deactivated by the _Observer_ probe team, except for the life detection system. He explained briefly how he and his team had made that determination.

Young had not been as moved by that news as he had expected. "So, your preliminary conclusion was that this incident was due to intentional acts by the probe team of _Observer_? For what reason? Revenge? Terrorism? Boredom? Sport? _What_? And why do it when _Observer_ is in the Gamma Quadrant?"

"Commissioner, I have reached no conclusion on whether the explosion was due to accident or due to malice," Sisko said carefully. "I'm only saying that I am getting a sense of coming to an understanding as to how this incident could have happened at all." As soon as Sisko said it, he knew that what he'd just said sounded awkward.

"I don't see it," Young said. "Really, I don't. These potential irregularities in probe handling, I don't see how they reveal anything about what happened in the Gamma Quadrant. I'm sure your people are putting in their best efforts, but I don't see the evidence coming together."

"Then perhaps you can help me put it together," Sisko said. "I need to know what _Observer_ was doing, not just on this mission to the Gamma Quadrant, but on previous missions. What was it about the mission to the Gamma Quadrant that was unusual? What did the _Observer_ probe team do on this mission that they didn't do on similar missions? What _didn't_ they do this time, that they'd always done before? What I'd like to see are data, statistics, showing what missions _Observer_ has performed in the past five years, and how well it performed them. I'd like that data for _Surveyor_ as well." Young started to protest, but Sisko pressed on. "I know you're going to tell me that that information is classified.

Young said nothing. She seemed to be looking at her hands.

"Commissioner," Sisko urged. " _I need to know._ "

"I'll talk with the other Commissioners."

Sisko saw he was not going to get any answer more definitive than that. "Thank you."

"Your team," Young said slowly, "has done some quite remarkable work so far. Your status reports have given us a great deal to think about. And, if you'll pardon me for saying so, a great deal to argue about. You have made an impression on some of the other Commissioners, I can tell you that."

"Thank you." Sisko wondered whether the impression was a good one or not.

"So I'll see what I can do about getting you that data. Commander Sisko, we will be at your station in about forty hours."

"Yes, Commissioner."

And the communication channel closed.

Sisko was about to get something to drink when he was notified of an incoming message. He opened a channel. Facing him was Major Kira. She got to the point at once.

"Benjamin, when is that Upsilon ship going to be removed? I've got a lot of people down here who are anxious to get back to Deep Space Nine."

"It should be towed away in about two days. After that, most of the security restrictions should be lifted, and people can return."

"Two days is a long time," Kira said.

Sisko wanted to say that two days was a long time only from her point of view. Instead, he said, "How are things in temporary relocation?"

"Terrible. The local Bajorans are becoming impatient and think we're overstaying our welcome. Which we are. There have been some fights and some ugly incidents down here, Benjamin. The sooner we can get these people back to their normal lives aboard the station, the better."

"I understand."

"How's the investigation coming, if I may ask?"

Sisko didn't want to answer with a curt assertion that it was classified. He'd heard that enough already and didn't like it. So instead, he said, "Things are coming together, we think. The Commission will be here in less than two days, and we'll report what we've found."

"And that's all you can tell me?"

"I can also tell you that I will be very, very glad when this is behind me."

Kira smiled. "So will I. Oh, by the way, I heard from Jake. He'll be returning to temporary relocation with others tomorrow."

Sisko felt a little ashamed. He'd almost forgotten that Jake was away from temporary relocation, hiking and camping. "How is he?"

"He's fine. He sends you his love. Sounds like he had a decent time. Sounds like they all did. I wish I could have gone with them."

"Thank you, Major. When Jake returns to temporary relocation, please go check on him personally, would you? And give him my love."

"Certainly. And Benjamin, I'll be waiting for word from you that I can start telling people to begin packing up for the move back. I guarantee that news will improve morale here."

"I will."

"Kira out."

And the communication channel closed.

Sisko once again was about to get something to drink when he was notified of another incoming message. This message, he saw, was on a secured channel. He entered his security code and opened secure communication on his side. It was Commissioner Young.

"Sending you data about _Observer's_ missions," she said simply. " _Surveyor_ , too. It's not everything you want, I'm sure. But this is what the Commission thinks you are authorized to see."

"Thank you, Commissioner."

"You're welcome. Oh, one more thing. The other Commissioners and I have quite a few things to attend to before we meet with you aboard Deep Space Nine. I do not think you need to make any further status reports. If you find anything of interest in that data I sent you," she sighed, "you can tell us when we arrive."

"Very well."

After the communication channel closed, Sisko decided he didn't want to get something to drink after all. What he really wanted to do was look at the data that he'd been requesting ever since the investigation started. He opened up the files he'd just received. He called Dax to his office, and the two of them scanned the data. They were pleased to see that there was a fair amount of information there. But there were also some troubling gaps.

Sisko and Dax were tired, but they could not shake the belief that there might be something in the jumble of numbers, something that would show why the Gamma Quadrant mission was different from previous missions.

They tried ordering and sorting the data in a number of ways. Sisko tried looking at all of _Observer's_ previous missions. If there was any strange thing in this information, he couldn't see it. There were no overt irregularities, and there was nothing that set _Observer's_ previous missions apart from her mission to the Gamma Quadrant. Sisko had hoped something would stand out, but nothing did.

 _Most of the information didn't seem like it ought to have been classified in the first place,_ Sisko thought. He also reminded himself that the Commission had certainly gone over this information already and had found nothing. Commissioner Young probably gave it to him to get him to stop asking for it.

While Sisko looked at all of the _Observer's_ missions, Dax decided to focus on time-critical missions.

Both Sisko and Dax found, as they had expected to find, that the numbers supported _Observer's_ superiority over _Surveyor_. Dax saw that, especially when it came to time-critical missions, _Observer_ was the better performer. Not all of the metrics and statistics had been supplied, but the statistics that were there were stark. In the early years of the Project, _Observer_ and _Surveyor_ had been assigned about the same number of time-critical missions, and they both had about the same rates of incomplete mapping. But about three years ago, _Surveyor's_ rate of incomplete mapping stayed about the same, while _Observer's_ number of incomplete mappings dropped markedly.

 _Very markedly_.

Dax asked Sisko to look at the data on her display. "Benjamin, look at this. These are the figures for time-critical missions. Three years ago, _Observer's_ rate of incomplete mapping drops to, well, to almost nothing. _Observer_ has been able to complete every time-critical mission successfully for the past twenty-two months. And _Observer_ has been assigned far more time-critical missions than _Surveyor_. In fact, most of _Observer's_ recent missions _are_ time-critical."

"The statistics seem to say that _Observer_ really earned its reputation, then."

"Yes. But something's not right. Look."

Sisko looked at the numbers on the display. Dax pointed at some of the numbers. Sisko wasn't sure what was odd, but after a few minutes, Sisko's jaw fell open. " _I see it._ "

"Here, too; and here."

"Let's get Chief O'Brien up here, immediately."

When they showed the data to O'Brien, he looked it over and saw nothing unusual. They explained to O'Brien what they thought the data meant.

"It's not impossible what they did," O'Brien shrugged. "The _Observer's_ crew was very efficient. Hell, maybe they just got lucky."

"Were they lucky here, too?" Dax asked, pointing at some other figures.

"And here? And here? And here?" Sisko pointed at different figures on the display.

O'Brien started to see it. "Yeah. Those were some pretty tight time windows, and they certainly _were_ some lucky bastards, weren't they?"

"How could they beat the odds, and beat them so consistently?" Sisko asked.

"They must have been saving time somehow, they must have found a way to be more efficient than we had thought." O'Brien said. " _Far_ more efficient."

For the next four hours, they discussed possibilities. After an hour of discussion, they seemed no closer to an explanation. After two hours, however, they had a working theory. After three hours, they had a consensus. And at the end of the four hours, they were confident what they would put in their reports.

Sisko checked the chronometer. "The Commission arrives in about twenty-five hours," Sisko said, stretching. "Let's finish our reports, and get some sleep if we can. Hopefully we won't have to do too much re-writing. We're in the home stretch, people. If any of you think of anything we've overlooked, any mistakes we may have made, anything we need to seriously reconsider, then _speak up_!"

Dax said, "The Commission has all of this same data. In fact, they've almost certainly got more information than they gave to us. Why didn't they see it?"

"Well, for one thing," O'Brien drawled, "it isn't exactly obvious. And they'd be less likely to notice it if they're operating under the assumption that the explosion was a deliberate act."

"And let's not forget," Sisko added, " _Observer_ had success after success. You don't quarrel with success, do you?"


	19. Chapter 19

CHAPTER 19

Sisko decided he needed to walk.

He had been putting the final touches on his report for nearly four hours straight, and he needed a break. His report still included some unanswered questions, but he thought the basic conclusions were solid. Sisko had confirmed from _Observer's_ equipment lists that _Observer_ carried several models of tricorders, including a geologist's model equipped with a graviton emitter. One of the unanswered questions was whether that tricorder ever made its way into the Bay.

Since their last meeting, neither Dax nor O'Brien had found any good reason to call their earlier consensus into question. They even pointed out how many of the most puzzling facts in the investigation now made sense. That was good news.

And Sisko had just received a message that was more good news: Doctor Bashir was not going to be disciplined for the premature deaths of ten patients under his care.

Sisko decided to walk down to the Infirmary and congratulate Bashir in person.

Sisko found Bashir sitting in his office. Bashir was not as sullen as before, but he was far from cheerful. This news might not be cause for actually celebrating, Sisko thought, but certainly the Doctor must feel a sense of relief.

Bashir took notice of Sisko's entrance without getting up from his chair. "You've heard?"

"Yes. Starfleet Medical has cleared you."

"Have you seen their decision?"

"No. I only know the outcome."

Bashir looked at his display. "I'm quoting here: 'Starfleet Medical finds no reasonable cause to pursue disciplinary action.' It doesn't say I did nothing wrong, it only says that they've decided they're not going to do anything about it."

"That's not what that means at all. You've been cleared of all wrongdoing."

"I suppose so."

"I assume you're relieved." When Bashir made no response, Sisko checked to make sure the office door was closed, then he sat opposite Bashir. "What's the problem, Doctor?"

Bashir rubbed his forehead. "I have come to peace with myself about my relationship with these patients, and their decisions to end their lives while under my care. I believe I acted properly and ethically under these most unusual circumstances. I pledged to answer all of their questions honestly, and when I told them that there was virtually no chance I'd find an effective treatment in time, that answer very likely prompted them to do what they did. I feel I understand why they did what they did. I am no longer troubled by that."

"All right," Sisko acknowledged.

Bashir pointed to his display. "But I am rather troubled by Starfleet Medical's decision."

"Why?"

"For starters," Bashir began, "the investigation was stopped before it had even really begun. I expected that, at a minimum, a Board of Inquiry would be formed, and representatives of Starfleet Medical would visit Deep Space Nine to investigate. But that won't happen now. All they did was take a preliminary interview of me, and apparently that is all they are ever _going_ to do. And forgive me, but it does strike me as odd that my preliminary interview is enough of an investigation to dispose of the case."

Sisko could see the point. "Maybe they did some other things, some additional investigation."

"In a way, maybe they did." Bashir turned the display so that Sisko could see the written decision. "There's a discussion here of the circumstances of the _Observer's_ incident in the Gamma Quadrant, and her return to Deep Space Nine. That is to be expected. But what do you make of this? I'm quoting again, 'Preliminary investigation indicates that the explosion occurred due to _deliberate deactivation of safety systems_ that would have prevented Upsilon Radiation exposure.' Where did Starfleet Medical get that? They certainly didn't get it from me."

"Or me," Sisko said softly.

"How about this? Again, I'm quoting: 'None of the patients in question had any involvement with the handling of the probes, and consequently had no involvement with any irregularities in probe handling.' Who's telling Starfleet Medical about 'irregularities in probe handling,' eh?"

"We have a leak," Sisko said.

"We do, don't we? It's not you or me or Jadzia or Miles."

"The Commissioners?"

"Who else?"

Sisko wasn't sure who else it could be.

Bashir summed it up. "Maybe I'm overly suspicious, but I think I sense a cover-up in progress. I suppose I ought to be relieved, possibly happy, or simply grateful, that I get to keep my job. But I can't help but think that the Commission wants to keep the number of reports generated from the _Observer_ incident to a minimum. Fewer reports means fewer details will be placed in the record, fewer questions will be asked."

"So you think they've pulled some strings to terminate Starfleet Medical's investigation?"

"As I say, maybe I'm just overly suspicious." Bashir lowered his eyes.

Sisko rose. He had been wondering whether the Commissioners might have already decided on what story they were going to tell to the Select Council, regardless of what his team's investigation showed. It was a troubling notion indeed. Whether they had so decided or not, Sisko had to get back to tidying up some of the details on his report before the Commissioners arrived.

"Julian," Sisko said, looking straight at Bashir. Bashir did not look at Sisko. "Let me tell you how I see this, how it looks from my perspective. What happened on the USS _Observer_ was a tragedy. What happened to those people who survived was a tragedy. And if you were to lose your career because of it, that would be a tragedy, too."

"Thank you, sir."

"You're welcome. Besides, pulled strings or not, if I understand correctly, you really didn't do anything wrong."

Bashir looked up.

"I didn't, did I?"

"No. _You did nothing wrong_."

"At least as far as you know."

Sisko stood fast, looking at Bashir for a full thirty seconds. Bashir remained silent. Eventually, Sisko decided to ask the question. "Julian, _what is it that I don't know_?"

Bashir rubbed his eyes, and took a deep breath. "There is a question that Starfleet Medical would certainly have gotten around to asking if this investigation had not been, shall we say, prematurely terminated. That question is never going to be asked, and I am never going to have to answer it."

"And that question is?" Sisko prompted.

Bashir looked directly at Sisko. "The question is, 'How did your ten patients all seem to know that twelve injected doses of Grade Orange Dyneuryllin would certainly be fatal?' That's a good question; that level of overdose of Regular Dyneuryllin is not fatal. The lethal dosage of Orange Grade is hardly a matter of common knowledge." Bashir sighed. "Perhaps you've wondered the same thing."

Sisko lowered his eyes. He stood mute for a few seconds.

"I always assumed," Sisko said slowly as he raised his eyes to Bashir's, "that your patients simply guessed that an overdose of a painkilling medicine would cause death. It is common knowledge some painkilling medicines are fatal in large doses, isn't it? Now, if you'll excuse me, Doctor, I have to finish my report and get ready to receive the Commissioners. Your presence will be required no later than 1100. You'll be pleased to hear that dress uniforms are not necessary."

Sisko turned and left.


	20. Chapter 20

CHAPTER 20

The Commissioners arrived at Deep Space Nine with a group of seven ships. Two ships carried the Commissioners themselves; one ship was a towing vessel; and the remaining four made up the escorts and honor guard.

As the ships arrived, Sisko thanked the _Wild Rose_ for her service in guarding the scene. One of the escort ships officially gave _Wild Rose_ permission to depart, and she did.

The ships carrying the Commissioners docked at the station. Sisko personally met Commissioner Young as she disembarked from her vessel. He mentioned he'd hoped that he would meet the other Commissioners as well, but Young apologized, saying that the other Commissioners wished to attend to duties with the _Observer_ , to make sure _Observer_ was properly secured and ready to be towed away.

Young said she had hoped to meet the rest of the investigating team. This time it was Sisko who apologized, saying that his team members were finishing up their final reports.

The time was 0940. A conference had been set, at the Commission's request, for 1400 hours. Sisko offered to take Young on a tour of the station, and Young accepted. Constable Odo silently accompanied them as their security escort. The tour went well, but Sisko felt it necessary to mention repeatedly that the station was usually considerably more crowded and the atmosphere usually a little more animated.

The tour ended just before 1100 hours. Sisko summoned Bashir, Dax and O'Brien, who all met Young with professional poise. At 1122, they all stood at attention on the Promenade as a brief honor ceremony was conducted, and the _Observer_ was towed away, guarded by three escort ships.

Sisko doubted he would ever see _Observer_ again.

Just before lunch, Young introduced the other Commissioners. Not waiting his turn to be introduced, Stoan approached O'Brien. O'Brien had been preparing for this moment. He offered a brief passable Vulcan salute and traditional Vulcan greeting, which Stoan accepted with a brief traditional reply. The men then bowed to each other and shook hands.

O'Brien took the liberty of introducing Stoan to Sisko, Dax and Bashir.

"Greetings," Stoan said, and nothing more.

Lunch was simple. Quark had offered to host it in his establishment on the Promenade. He silently served several protein- and vegetable-based dishes, along with a modest assortment of spices and non-intoxicating beverages. Most of the diners, it turned out, were not very hungry. The Commissioners were plainly uncomfortable discussing anything in such unsecure surroundings, and even avoided most small talk. Besides, the Commissioners were anxious to hear the results of Sisko's investigation, and they did not want to wait until 1400 hours.

Sisko begged his leave of the Commissioners so that he could be assured that the briefing room was ready for presentation of findings. Young rose, and went with Sisko.

"Commissioner?" Sisko said as Young walked next to him.

"I wish to be certain that the facilities where the briefing will take place will be secure," she said.

"I'm sure they'll be satisfactory. Your staff has already checked them over, I understand."

"People sometimes overlook things," Young said.

Sisko nodded. "Yes, they do."

The briefing area included a number of security features. A lectern was available, as was a large display. Seating appeared adequate. Fresh water was available. Young surveyed the facilities while Sisko made a few last-minute adjustments.

"This will be fine," Young announced.

"I'm glad."

"Commander, may we briefly test the security of the room?

"Of course."

"Computer, secure this area, authorization Young 8268."

"Area secure," the computer responded.

"Now, Commander Sisko, I wonder whether I might have a few words with you in confidence before we begin."

Sisko had suspected that Young had joined him so that they could have some words in private. "Yes, of course."

"I want you to understand, first of all, that this _Observer_ incident is very serious. The future of the Gas Giant Mapping Project is at stake. Careers are at stake. Reputations are at stake. And the honor of the USS _Observer_ and her crew is at stake."

"I understand."

"Accordingly, I caution you that unsubstantiated criticisms, personal attacks, unproven speculations of fault and the like are to be avoided."

"I know that, and so do my people."

"I can tell you, confidentially, that we Commissioners have been agonizing over this case. It has affected us emotionally and physically. We do not have anything remotely approaching an agreement as to what may have happened aboard _Observer_. We are earnestly hoping that you and your team can at least shed some light."

"We will try." Sisko was mildly surprised, since Young seemed to be saying that the Commission was far from deciding what story to tell the Select Council.

"Everything to be said in this room is confidential. Upon that, I must insist. After we are done here, you must never question or criticize the Commission in any way, even if you adamantly disagree with us. Indeed, after we depart, you and your officers must never discuss this matter ever again."

"We understand."

"Your security clearances for subject matter related to the USS _Observer_ were temporary. After we leave, those clearances will be rescinded. But your obligations attendant to maintaining the confidentiality of secret information will continue."

"That comes as no surprise."

Young paused a moment. "There is also something I must ask: not demand, not require, but _ask_. Of you." Young suddenly found it difficult to get out the words. "Those poor souls aboard the USS _Observer_ : when they get where they are all going, they will receive full memorial honors. Were you aware of that?"

"I assumed that would happen, yes."

"The probe team is aboard the _Observer_. These are officers that the Commission vetted and selected. These are the officers we trained. These are the officers who reported to us. These are the officers we came to know." Young's voice cracked. "And _if these officers deliberately set about to cause this disaster_ , they are _not_ deserving of the honors that are due to their shipmates. So I ask you: Do you believe that _Observer's_ probe team conspired to cause the deaths of these people?"

Sisko took a deep breath and looked straight into Young's eyes.

" _No_."

Young seemed as though she might lose her composure, though she did not. She sniffed, then nodded. "But if I understand you from your earlier reports, you do expect to conclude that the explosion aboard USS _Observer_ was due to an intention to cause her destruction?"

"No, Commissioner. The unanimous conclusion of my investigating team is that the explosion was most likely an accident."


	21. Chapter 21

CHAPTER 21

The conference began at 1330 hours. Sisko formally welcomed the members of the Commission to Deep Space Nine, once again. He introduced himself, once again. He once again introduced Bashir, Dax and O'Brien, who stood as they were identified. Sisko offered Commissioner Young the opportunity formally to introduce the members of the Commission, and she did so. Commissioner Fetterie was introduced first, followed by Commissioner Nguyen, then Commissioner Ott, and lastly, Mister Stoan. Each stood in turn. They reseated themselves in unison. For the record, these were the attendees of the briefing.

Sisko had everyone's full attention.

Sisko briefly recounted the events of USS _Observer's_ voyage to the Gamma Quadrant, and her tragic return. He described in general terms what he had done to secure the ship and quarantine it, and to get treatment for survivors.

"I am saddened to say," Sisko said, "that all of the survivors have now perished. All of the crew of USS _Observer_ is gone." He hoped that no further questions about the medical treatment of the survivors would be forthcoming.

After a short description of how most inhabitants of the station chose to leave, Sisko recounted that he and his officers had been tasked with investigating the cause of the incident.

"I stand before you today to announce our findings. Doctor Bashir did not participate in our technical investigation; otherwise, our findings are unanimous. Before announcing our findings, however, I wish to have it noted for the record that our findings are based upon the evidence that was actually available to us. We made numerous requests for additional evidence from the Commission, and most of these requests were denied. I mention this because, following my report, the Commission may have the opportunity to review evidence in its possession that was not available to us, and may therefore be able to support or to refute our findings."

Sisko expected the Commissioners to react unfavorably to what he'd just said. Instead, they were impassive, waiting for what he was about to say next.

"It is our unanimous conclusion that the explosion of USS _Observer_ was an accident, in that the explosion was unintended by all members of the crew in general and the probe team in particular."

That got a reaction from all of the Commissioners except Young, who adjusted their postures upon hearing it. Even Stoan cocked his head to hear these words.

"That said," Sisko continued, "it is our unanimous conclusion that the probe team intentionally committed certain actions that contributed to causing the explosion, though the probe team did not, I repeat, _did not_ intend to cause the explosion."

More adjustments to posture.

"I shall now explain how our investigating team came to these conclusions."

"Commander Sisko," Stoan interrupted. "Do not take offense, but the conclusion just announced is patently unreasonable and inconsistent with itself. Officers are presumed to intend the consequences of their conscious acts. Yet your people's conclusion, if I understand it correctly, is that the probe team officers committed conscious acts that caused the explosion, but did not intend to cause the explosion. Your proffered conclusion is therefore inherently contradictory." Stoan paused, presumably for effect, and added, "Have I explained sufficiently to you why your conclusion is inherently contradictory?"

Sisko summoned up as much confidence as he could, and looked directly at Stoan. Sisko knew that Stoan was the member of the Commission who would be the most difficult one to convince. If Sisko conveyed an air of uncertainty, Stoan would cross-examine him mercilessly, and Sisko's credibility would probably be in tatters. Sisko was as sure of his conclusions as he could be, and he needed to convey this certainty by his demeanor. "You do understand our conclusions correctly, Commissioner Stoan."

"Use the honorific 'Mister' when addressing me, Commander."

Sisko was momentarily embarrassed at having forgotten Stoan's views about personal titles, but Sisko recovered quickly. "Apologies, _Mister_ Stoan. Our conclusion is _not_ contradictory, Mister Stoan. It is the conclusion that is best supported by the evidence available to us. It is, furthermore, eminently _logical_." Sisko stressed the last word. "I pledge to you, when all is said and done, you will see it is logical."

Stoan sat silent for a moment. "Explain the conclusion," he said simply.

"Yes, sir. Let us begin with some basics. All evidence shows that the explosion occurred inside the Probe Preparation Bay. All evidence indicates that the probe team in the Bay was preparing a probe for launch when the explosion occurred. Since there are eleven probes missing from the Locker, we believe that the probe that exploded was the eleventh in the series."

Stoan looked as though he might interrupt, but he did not.

"Because a probe was being prepared for launch," Sisko continued, "most of the safety features preventing detonation had been removed or deactivated, or were in the process of being removed or deactivated. These actions taken in preparation were routine, but they were also intentional, and were intended to permit the probe to detonate. They were not, however, intended to cause the probe to detonate inside the Bay."

Again Stoan looked as though he might interrupt, yet he kept his peace for the moment.

Sisko promptly moved on. "It is reasonable to conclude that there came a time at which the probe was nearly ready for launch. At that time, there were only a handful of measures that prevented the probe from detonating. Those measures are: First, the gravitational gradient system. The gravitational gradient system prevents detonation unless the probe is in the presence of gravitational gradients indicative of a gas giant. Second, the environment assessment system, which prevents detonation unless the probe is subject to the atmosphere, temperature and pressure of a gas giant. Third, the life detection system prevents the probe from exploding in the presence of higher life forms. Fourth, there must be given a coded authorization to detonate issued by the Probe Control Station. And fifth, there must be an explicit command to detonate issued by the Probe Control Station. Unless these five measures are addressed, the probe will not detonate."

Sisko paused at this point to take a sip of water. He was not thirsty, but he wanted to assess the reaction of the Commission. He had worried, perhaps unreasonably, that there might be additional safety features that had been kept secret, or that he and his team had somehow overlooked. The Commission seemed to agree with his analysis so far, and Sisko felt a measure of relief.

He went on. "We know that, in the case of USS _Surveyor_ and likely in the case of USS _Observer_ as well, one of these measures is routinely made ineffective prior to launch. The coded authorization to detonate is routinely given to the probe prior to launch, while it is still aboard the vessel."

Commissioner Ott stirred. "No, that _can't_ be right! The authorization is supposed to be given _after_ launch, not before!"

Commissioner Nguyen answered the objection. "Carl, we've talked about this, remember? The authorization can be given at any time, at the discretion of Probe Control. Once launch begins, Probe Control has its hands full. So we've said it is permissible to enter the authorization code prior to launch."

"We _did_?"

"Yes! _Good grief, we spent days arguing about it_!"

"The point is, Commissioners," Sisko broke in, while Ott and Nguyen continued to bicker, "that the authorization _could_ be given by the Probe Control Station at any time. Regardless of when they _ought_ to issue the coded authorization, they _can_ issue it prior to launch."

" _Commander Sisko is correct,_ " Stoan said simply, and loudly. The quarrel between the two Commissioners ended at once.

Sisko nodded to Stoan, and went on. "It is also correct, is it not, that a command to detonate can also be given at any time, at the discretion of the Probe Control Station?" Sisko looked directly at Stoan. "That command to detonate could be given while the probe was still aboard the vessel, could it not?"

Stoan spoke slowly. "That is correct. Once coded authorization is given, it is within the discretion of the probe team to order detonation at any time, even if the probe is still aboard the vessel."

" _You're saying they ordered the probe to blow up while it was still aboard the ship?!_ " objected Commissioner Ott.

Stoan turned to Ott. "Giving such a command would not cause detonation," Stoan replied sternly. "The other systems would prevent not only detonation, but would also prevent priming. Giving the command would be a totally futile and unreasonable action."

"But _why_ would anyone _do_ that?" Commissioner Ott objected. "Were they _mad_?" Commissioner Fetterie nodded, apparently wanting to know the same thing.

"I believe," Stoan announced with a note of imperiousness, "that Commander Sisko will be addressing the question of 'why' in due course." Stoan faced Sisko, and though his words were directed to the other Commissioners, Stoan fixed his gaze squarely on Sisko. "And since Commander Sisko has assured us that his conclusions are based upon logic, it is unlikely that madness will play a part."

Sisko nodded. "Yes, I will be coming to 'why.' But first, as Mister Stoan has already reminded us, if authorization had been given and if a command to detonate had also been given, there three safety systems that stand in the way of detonation: gravity, environment, and life." He took a breath. "We now know that, it is possible to reduce that number. We know that the gravitational gradient system can be deactivated by the probe team in the Bay."

"We _know_ that?" This time it was Commissioner Young.

"Yes, we _know_ it. Mister O'Brien can show you a demonstration, if you like. Some ordinary equipment, such as some models of a geologist's tricorder, can be programmed to emit a graviton signal that will fool the gravitational sensor into thinking it is proximate to a gas giant. Once the gravitational safety is deactivated, it remains deactivated for at least forty seconds. So we are down now to two safety systems."

Sisko paused, because he expected that what he might say next would provoke a reaction. "We have further learned that it is possible to trick the environmental sensor, causing the environment assessment system to be deactivated as well. This leaves only _one_ safety system in place."

A reaction did indeed occur, but it was a surprisingly quiet reaction. The Commissioners looked at each other as if to see what the others would do. Commissioner Ott began muttering to himself, but no one else said anything aloud.

"Once again, Mister O'Brien can give you a demonstration showing how it can be done," Sisko said, "and it can be done with instruments that _Observer_ had in its own Probe Preparation Bay. I should explain how we came to know this. We had discovered that the _Observer's_ Probe Preparation Bay had been modified approximately three years ago. A new scanning apparatus was installed, and the new scanning apparatus included a wand-type active scanning emitter bank. This emitter bank is an instrument that can be used to generate a signal that will cause the environmental sensor to sense that it is in the environment of a gas giant. Once the environmental safety system is deactivated, only the life safety system is there to keep the probe from exploding."

Commissioner Ott could no longer keep his peace. "I do not understand. _Are you saying that the probe team deactivated one automatic safety system after another?_ You're not merely saying that they _could_ _have_ deactivated these safety systems, but that they _actually did_ deactivate them?! And once the systems were deactivated, the people in the Bay asked Probe Control to give the command to explode the probe while it was still aboard?"

"We believe that is what happened, yes."

" _Then explain how they deactivated the life detection safety system!_ " Stoan demanded.

" _And while you're at it,_ " Commissioner Young added, " _explain how all of this adds up to being an accident!_ " Several Commissioners voiced approval of Young's remark. "And explain why, after hundreds of successful mapping missions, the crew of _Observer_ just decided to start deactivating safety systems while on a mapping mission in the Gamma Quadrant!" Once again, other Commissioners offered shouts indicating that they too wanted to know the answer to Young's questions.

Sisko raised his hand to indicate that, once the Commissioners quieted down, he was ready to answer. He stood tall and resolute. He had known questions like this would be coming, so he was not intimidated by their tone.

"There is an incorrect assumption being made here," Sisko said when he has the Commissioners' attention once again. "Let us now address it. It is being assumed that the probe team of USS _Observer_ followed a _different or irregular procedure_ during its mission in the Gamma Quadrant, and because _Observer_ followed a different procedure, the explosion occurred. I submit that they _didn't_ follow a different procedure at all." Sisko put an extra edge into his voice. "I submit that they followed the _same_ procedure that they had been following _for the past three years_!"

Silence.

" _I submit to you that for the past three years, USS_ Observer _, repeatedly and routinely, had been deactivating its probe safety systems when missions were time-critical._ "

Stunned silence.

Sisko motioned to Dax. "Lieutenant Jadzia Dax will discuss some of the evidence that led us to that conclusion. Lieutenant?"

As Dax rose, a page of tabulated data appeared on a large display behind the lectern.

"These statistics pertain to _Observer's_ time-critical missions in the three years prior to _Observer's_ trip to the Gamma Quadrant," Dax began. "There have been eighty-nine time-critical missions. This number here indicates the duration of the time window in which _Observer_ had to operate, rounded up to the nearest hour. The longest time window is forty-nine hours and as shortest is nineteen hours. This number here indicates the number of probes needed to generate a complete mapping, ranging from eighteen to forty-two."

"I'd also like you to note," interrupted Sisko, "that every single one of these time-critical missions, except one, was completed successfully. Eighty-eight full, complete mappings under time-critical conditions: that is an outstanding achievement, and it led to _Observer_ earning and enjoying a reputation as an excellent mapping ship."

Sisko nodded to Dax, who continued. "Although we do not have detailed data for every mission, we understand that a typical probe deployment takes about three–quarters of an hour. Forty-five minutes, at a minimum. That is, it takes at least forty-five minutes to get the probe from the Locker, prepare it, launch it, guide the probe to where it needs to be, detonate it, and take readings from it."

Some of the Commissioners nodded their heads.

Dax pointed to the data on display. "Look at this mission as an example. The time window is 26 hours long. To do a complete mapping for this particular mission, 32 probes would need to be deployed. As a matter of simple mathematics, it would take about 24 hours, at a minimum, to complete this mapping. 24 hours is, of course, within the time window of 26 hours. But it also assumes that everything proceeds rapidly and smoothly and without interruption and," she paused, "without problems."

Sisko stole a look at Stoan. His expression had subtly changed. To Sisko, his expression was one of mild astonishment. _Stoan sees it_ , Sisko thought. _Or at least, he's starting to see it_.

"We know that things don't always go all right," Dax said. "We know that about one out of every eight probes fails to detonate, because it fails to prime. In a mission deploying 32 probes, one might expect four FTP's, although it might be fewer than that, or it might be more. And when there is an FTP, the probe has to be retrieved by a shuttlecraft, returned to the ship and then returned to the Locker. We do not have complete data about particular FTP's on particular missions, but we have estimated that when a probe FTP's, it takes at least one point five hours to prep it, launch it, position it, retrieve it, and return it to the Locker."

 _Some of the Commissioners are seeing it now_ , Sisko thought. _They haven't put the pieces together, but they're seeing it_.

Commissioner Ott muttered, "Usually takes about two hours."

Dax pointed to the information on the display again. "So here, the time window is 26 hours. You can do the mapping in 24 hours, if there are no FTP's. But if there are, say, four FTP's, it will take, at a minimum, 30 hours to complete the mapping. _Not enough time_. If you got only three FTP's, that would take 28-and-a-half hours. _Not enough time_."

Dax let her audience do the math in case of only two FTP's. Still _not enough time_.

"Maybe they caught a break," Commissioner Young said. "You never know when you're going to get an FTP. Maybe instead of four FTP's, they got only one. Then they could have completed the mapping mission within the time window."

"That is possible," Dax admitted. "We do not know how many FTP's occurred on each mission."

" _Though perhaps you do_ ," Sisko added, looking at Young.

Dax went on. "Maybe luck played a role. But that may mean that the _Observer_ was very lucky on several occasions. These forty-four missions here," Dax highlighted some of the data on the display, "also have very short time windows and lots of probes to deploy. An expected number of FTP's would cause each of these missions to result in incomplete mappings, or would cause the mappings to be completed just in the nick of time, assuming that a larger-than-expected number of FTP's did not occur. Yet _Observer_ completed _all_ of these mappings successfully."

"Only one incomplete mapping in the past three years," Sisko reminded everyone.

"When we saw these statistics," Dax said, "we wondered how _Observer_ could make its mappings within the allotted times, and how it could do it consistently. We first assumed that the probe teams were simply very efficient. But mere efficiency cannot save that much time."

Some of the Commissioners nodded their heads.

"And so we asked ourselves, 'How _could_ they save time? What _are_ the most time-consuming parts of taking a mapping? And can we get rid of them or streamline them?' And we found that the most time-wasting part of mapping is dealing with FTP's. Preparing the probe and then having it fail to prime, and then having to go out and get the probe; those activities are significant time-wasters. And it happens after about twelve-and-a-half percent of all launches. It would save a lot of time if you didn't have to deal with probes that wouldn't prime."

"That expense of time is unavoidable," Stoan objected. "On average, twelve point five percent of all cores will not prime. That is a consequence of physical laws. The _Observer_ crew could not eliminate failures to prime, nor could they force a probe to prime, nor could they reduce the twelve point five percent rate. If you are suggesting otherwise, it would be the _same_ as saying the _Observer_ crew could change physical laws."

"No, they could not change physical laws," said Sisko. "But _they could determine whether a probe would successfully prime before they launched it._ That is what we think they did."

Stoan did not see the logic just yet. "Explain."

Sisko explained. "We think that, on time-critical missions, the probe team tried to prime _every_ probe before launch. If a probe failed to prime, it was returned to the Locker immediately and another probe was immediately withdrawn from the Locker. But if the probe successfully primed, it was launched. A primed probe would stay primed at least long enough so that it could be maneuvered into position in the planet's atmosphere, and when the order to detonate was given a second time, with all of the safeties deactivated, the probe was _certain not to be an FTP_. The result was: no more wasted time fetching FTP probes with a shuttlecraft. Indeed, aboard _Observer_ , the officer whose post should have been in the fetching shuttlecraft was away from his post, perhaps suggesting that he knew shuttlecraft retrieval services would not be needed."

Sisko took a deep breath.

"The only way to get a probe to prime is to deactivate most of its safety systems and command it to detonate. The sequence followed by the _Observer_ probe team therefore likely was this: the gravitational system was deactivated, then the environmental system. Then the officers in the Bay contacted the Probe Control Station, which issued the authorization code and the command to detonate. At this point, no safety systems prevented priming, so the probe did one of two things: it either FTP'ed or it primed itself. Only if it primed itself, would it be launched."

Sisko took another deep breath.

"Mister Stoan, you asked earlier for an explanation as to how the probe team deactivated the life detection safety system. The evidence suggests that they did _not_ deactivate the life detection safety system, and that _they never intended to deactivate it._ They intended, rather, that the life detection safety system would keep them alive, after Probe Control commanded the probe to detonate. On all previous occasions, the life detection safety system _did_ keep them alive. But on this one occasion in the Gamma Quadrant, it did not. The fact that _Observer_ happened to be in the Gamma Quadrant had nothing to do with it; the same thing could just as easily have happened in the Alpha Quadrant."

The room was silent.

"The life detection safety system cannot be tampered with or bypassed. It is said to be the most reliable safety system, and it is touted as being able to prevent an erroneous explosion up to one second before actual detonation. The probe team may well have believed that they could do what they did and that the life detection safety system would prevent detonation. The probe team may well have believed that the life detection safety system would protect them. Such a belief would have been flawed."

Sisko summed up. "The evidence shows that the probe team never intended to cause an on-board detonation. There is a complete absence of evidence to the contrary: we have found _no evidence whatsoever_ of any malicious motive. To the contrary, the evidence indicates that, from the standpoint of the probe team, _the detonation was unintended_. This incident was, therefore, an accident."

Eventually Commissioner Young spoke. "Because the life detection safety system failed?"

"That is what the evidence indicates, yes. We had originally suspected that the life _sensor_ had failed. But the evidence is that the life sensor did not fail. We infer, rather, that the mechanical apparatus intended to be interposed between the striker and the core failed. As for precisely _how_ it failed, that we cannot say, as it would require information beyond our security clearances."

Sisko nodded to O'Brien, to ask him to join Sisko and Dax at the front of the room. O'Brien did so.

Sisko stood side-by-side with Dax and O'Brien. "I expect you may have questions. My team and I stand ready to answer them."

Sisko could see all of the other Commissioners turning in Stoan's direction. They were agitated, but asked nothing. They wanted to hear what Stoan would say.

Stoan spoke evenly. "Commander Sisko, you promised us that the explanation you would put forward would be logical. I do not find the explanation to be without faults, and it is based upon Human motivations and proclivities, but I do find it to be mostly logical."

Sisko nodded but said nothing. He knew that Stoan was not yet finished, and that he was about to ask about the 'faults.' His questions, Sisko knew, were going to be difficult.

"Commander," Stoan said, "You have talked about what the evidence shows. May I first point out that nearly all of the evidence in _Observer's_ Probe Preparation Bay has been destroyed, meaning that most physical evidence may have been permanently lost. _Observer's_ logs, as they pertain to probes, were also destroyed. _Observer's_ crew is dead. You have stated, correctly, that there is evidence indicating that what you suggest to have occurred _may_ have occurred. I emphasize, ' _may_ have occurred.'"

 _Here it comes_ , Sisko thought.

"Is there any evidence that what you say occurred _actually did_ occur?"

Sisko had been prepared for this question.

"Mister Stoan, we have evidence from which we can infer that both the coded authorization and the command to detonate were given while the probe was in the Bay."

"That is a reasonable inference," Stoan agreed, "since the probe could not detonate unless they were given."

"Further, we have evidence that _Observer_ had the means to bypass the gravitational and environmental safeties. In the case of an instrument to deactivate the environmental safety, the evidence shows that _Observer_ had such an instrument inside its Probe Preparation Bay."

"That appears to be the case," Stoan conceded. "My question remains unanswered, however. The statistical figures to which your Lieutenant Dax referred, they may suggest the possibility of scenario you have laid out, but they do not affirmatively establish it."

"That may be correct," Sisko agreed. "But I believe the Commission is in possession of evidence, or can come into possession of evidence, that will support, or falsify, the model of events as we have reconstructed them. I therefore offer to you the following considerations."

Stoan was listening. So were the other Commissioners.

"First," Sisko said. "There is a former probe team member from the _Observer_ , Lieutenant Camille Gaulle, who currently resides at Starbase 12. She may have first-hand knowledge as to what procedures were applied by _Observer's_ probe team on past time-critical missions. She refused to answer our questions. She might be agreeable to answering questions from you."

The Commissioners all looked at Stoan. Stoan nodded to Sisko, but said nothing.

"Second. The Commission is undoubtedly in possession of more data than we had; the data may support or refute what we have set forth today. You may know about _Observer's_ missions: number of FTP's per mission, number of shuttle retrievals, average time for probe preparation, and so forth. You further have comparable information with respect to _Surveyor_."

Stoan nodded again.

"Third. You will also, we assume, be able to open _Observer's_ Probe Preparation Bay and make a more detailed examination than we were able to do. The information you have or obtain may tend to confirm or refute our reconstruction of the events."

Stoan nodded yet again.

"Fourth. We have reason to believe that the eleventh probe exploded. Now, we have no way of finding out precisely what probe was eleventh in the sequence, but maybe you can. And you can then check its manufacturing and testing and service records. Those records might reveal something."

"You are correct in part," Stoan said. "Based upon the sensor sweep information you supplied to us, we were able to identify which was the probe that was most recently removed from the Locker, and almost certainly that was the probe that detonated. And, in fact, we have already reviewed that probe's manufacture and assembly records. They were _all_ in order. There were _no_ defects in manufacture or assembly."

"Have you checked that probe's service record?"

Stoan hesitated. "Yes."

"My prediction," O'Brien jumped in, "for what it is worth, is that you will find that the probe that exploded on board may have previously FTP'ed on an earlier time-critical mission."

Stoan's eyebrows lifted. "Why, Mister O'Brien?"

"Because if the barrier interposed between the striker and the core were similar to the flexible curtain-like barriers used in emergency systems throughout the Federation, in some airlocks and hatchways and so forth, that material can become brittle when exposed to harsh conditions. Brittleness can be caused by many kinds of intense radiation, but it can also be caused by electromagnetic shear, such as might be caused by the shaped electromagnetic fields one might use when priming a probe."

"These barriers are not subjected to the most intense parts of the electromagnetic field," Stoan protested, but his protest faded when he put the pieces together. "But that would be true only under routine operating conditions, where the barrier is withdrawn prior to priming. If your team's scenario is correct, however, the _Observer_ probe team was priming its probes inside the Bay, with the barrier of each probe adjacent to the core."

O'Brien nodded. "Yes, sir. And if I'm right that the probe FTP'ed previously on a time-critical mission, then this particular probe may have received a _double-dose_ of electromagnetic shear: once at an earlier time when the _Observer_ probe team tried to prime it in the Bay, and it FTP'ed; and a second time moments before the explosion, when the _Observer_ probe team tried to prime it _again_ in the Bay. That double-dose may have weakened the barrier even further."

Stoan stood mute for several seconds, then said, "Intriguing, quite remarkable. Well done."

"But I'm just guessing, sir," O'Brien cautioned. "I'm assuming that the probe's barrier shares many of the attributes of other flexible curtain-like barriers. And I'm assuming that the electromagnetic field strength is high enough to cause damage. But I don't know those things for a fact; that knowledge is above my security clearance."

"I will look into it." Stoan seemed as though he might ask a follow-up question, but did not. Instead, he said, "I will look into all of these things."

The other Commissioners seemed eager to discuss the findings among themselves. They had no questions for Sisko and his investigative team. They seemed to be more interested in discussing the case among themselves and examining the evidence in their possession to see whether what Sisko had described could really have occurred.

Stoan had fallen silent. His mind was formulating ideas for testing Sisko's hypothesis.

Seeing that, Commissioner Young stepped up to shake Sisko's hand. "Thank you, Commander, and thanks to your team. Please keep yourselves available to answer the Commission's questions, should we have any. Your report was interesting. You have given us many things to consider. We will take all of your team's reports under advisement."


	22. Chapter 22, Epilogue

CHAPTER 22

It was refreshing for Sisko to see Deep Space Nine bustling again.

It took only about twelve hours to pack up everyone from temporary relocation facilities on Bajor and ferry them back to the station.

Sisko met Jake at the airlock, and they hugged for a full two minutes.

The daily routine returned quickly, as though it had never been suspended.

Sisko sat in his office, catching up on some fitness reports, when a visitor came to call.

"Commissioner Young!" Sisko said. "Please come in. Would you like something to drink?"

"Thank you, no." Sisko offered her a seat, and she sat. "The Commission will be departing in about an hour."

Sisko took his seat behind his desk. "I see."

"I wanted to thank you for your work."

"You're welcome."

She looked around the office. "Is this office secure?"

Sisko touched a control panel on his desk. "Yes, it's secure now."

"The Commission has reached a series of tentative findings. Officially, I cannot discuss our findings with you at this time."

"I understand."

"But before I left, I wanted to share some things with you. First, tomorrow there will be a memorial service for those who lost their lives in service on USS _Observer_. They will receive full honors." She looked at Sisko. " _All_ members of the crew will receive full honors."

Sisko took her meaning at once. The Commission had decided that the explosion was an accident and not due to any evil intent by the probe team. "I see," he said.

"And second, you ended your presentation two days ago by making a series of predictions, for lack of a better word. You listed things that we might be able to find out, things that you were not privileged to know, or facts that the Commission may have withheld from you. You predicted that they would support the scenario you had described."

"Yes." Sisko had actually said that information in the possession of the Commission could also _refute_ the scenario, but Sisko decided not to correct the Commissioner.

"I just wanted you to know that you are an accomplished predictor."

Sisko did not know how to interpret that. "Thank you," he said simply.

Young sighed. "This is unofficial, off the record."

"Of course."

"A team of investigators has already entered _Observer's_ damaged Probe Preparation Bay. They have found among the rubble certain components that appear to be the remnants of a geologist's tricorder."

"Interesting."

"I thought you might think so. The remnants of the scanner's emitter bank were found, as well, of course. We also took a more, uh, careful look at some of our records of _Observer's_ missions. I cannot say whether those records confirm your team's hypothesis, but I can say, uh, that they do not conclusively disprove it. And they do call into question how so many of _Observer's_ time-critical missions could have been completed within the available time windows, had standard operating procedures been followed."

"Also interesting."

"Once we knew what we might be looking for, we started to see some questionable things. For example, we noticed that _Observer's_ retrieval shuttle maintenance records indicated the shuttle ought to have logged a bit more space time than it actually did. Things like that."

"That is interesting as well."

"You might also find it of interest that Mister Stoan has taken quite a liking to your Mister O'Brien. Or at least, he is not nearly as, shall we say, difficult toward him as he is toward other colleagues."

Sisko smiled. "Miles worked very hard."

"Mister Stoan has spent some time in Mister O'Brien's laboratory, seeing how the gravitational and environmental sensors could have been, uh, 'spoofed'; is that the right word? I think he was genuinely surprised at how readily this spoofing could be done. And, well, I'm not sure I should be telling you this."

Sisko was curious, but he said, "If you don't think I need to know, I accept your judgment."

"Let me put it this way," Young said. "You _deserve_ to know. Mister O'Brien made some predictions, and Mister Stoan was, to put it mildly, fascinated by those predictions."

"Oh?"

"Mister O'Brien had predicted that the probe in question might have previously failed to prime. We've, uh, known for some time which probe had exploded and we've known that this probe had previously failed to prime." She cleared her throat. "We thought that fact was irrelevant. In retrospect, we probably should have shared that information with you."

 _Yes_ , Sisko thought, _you should have._ He kept his thought to himself.

Young continued: "Mister O'Brien had also predicted not only that the probe had previously failed to prime, but that it had failed to prime on a time-critical mission. If so, the _Observer_ team may have previously tried to prime it inside the Bay, which would subject its life detection system barrier to intense electromagnetic shear. We have since learned that Mister O'Brien's prediction was absolutely correct. It turns out that the probe almost certainly had FTP'ed on at least one previous time-critical mission."

"I see." Sisko wondered whether the words "at least" meant that the probe had actually failed to prime twice in its history, or more. _Could it be that its barrier had been subjected to three or more doses of electromagnetic shear?_

"Mister O'Brien further predicted that if the barrier were exposed to intense electromagnetic shear, it would be more likely to break. Well, Mister Stoan used Mister O'Brien's laboratory to put together a simulator to test this hypothesis. Mister Stoan fabricated some barriers and subjected them to controlled electromagnetic conditions and then to testing. He had some interesting findings."

"The barrier could fail?"

"Yes. Exposure to intense fields indeed makes the barrier more brittle, and makes it more prone to cracking along its pleats. The barrier can still be within technical specifications, but it loses some of its resilience. This loss of resilience may be serious. The impact of the striker may produce a crack, and even a small crack might be enough to allow a part of the striker to touch a part of the core, and the result might be detonation. Mister Stoan has concluded preliminarily that there would be a significantly increased risk of catastrophic barrier failure when the striker tries to hit the core and is stopped by a compromised barrier. He has not yet quantified this risk, however."

"So even if the barrier is in place, the explosion becomes, at least, _possible_."

Young lowered her eyes. " _If not inevitable._ How many times had _Observer_ launched probes already primed? Two thousand times? Three thousand? Maybe more? Eventually, the failure was _going_ to happen."

"Mmm," Sisko mumbled agreement. That was Human nature: _Observer's_ probe people had built a stellar reputation using this clever short-cut, and they weren't going to stop using it if it meant a loss of prestige and privilege and honor. Besides, they'd gotten away with it for a long time with no harm done. They would continue to use it until it blew up on them.

Young suddenly smiled kindly. "And there's one more thing."

Sisko waited. He wondered why Young was smiling.

"We contacted Lieutenant Gaulle on Starbase 12. She worked in _Observer's_ Preparation Bay and at Probe Control. She indeed had knowledge of what _Observer's_ probe team did on its missions, those that were time-critical and those that were not." Young spoke the next words carefully. "She insisted that we guarantee her that she would face no charges, and that she would bear no risk of being taken from her husband's side, regardless of what she told us. With that guarantee, we persuaded Lieutenant Gaulle to speak to us."

"And?"

Young hesitated. "I'm sorry; I cannot tell you what she told us."

Sisko was disappointed. "I see."

"But I can tell you that she, uh, did not dispute the principal points in your hypothesis. That is all I can say." Young smiled kindly again.

Sisko nodded. By saying so little, Young seemed to be saying quite a lot. If Sisko had been dead wrong in his re-creation of what had occurred aboard _Observer_ , Gaulle would surely have disputed several of his "principal points." Sisko thought it likely that Gaulle would at least have been asked whether she had ever been at the Probe Control Station, and had given the authorization code and the detonation command while a probe was still in the Probe Preparation Bay.

And she did not dispute that.

And Gaulle would certainly have been asked whether, inside the Probe Preparation Bay, she had deliberately deactivated a probe's automatic safety systems, or watched such things being done.

And she did not dispute that, either.

Young rose, and Sisko did as well. "So thank you once again, Commander Sisko, thank you and your team. The Commission will be issuing its final report to the Select Council in due course. I expect that the full report will be confidential. The work of your team will be given credit in the full report, by name. I also expect that an abbreviated report will be made public, but your work, and the work of your people, will not be acknowledged therein; except to say that the Commission's conclusions are based in large part upon the work of an independent investigating team."

 _That sounds like another confirmation that the Commission thinks we got it right_ , Sisko said to himself.

"After that, I expect that the Gas Giant Mapping Project will be reviewed, possibly revamped." Young hesitated. "Possibly canceled."

They shook hands. Sisko bid farewell with these words: "Whatever the future may bring, Commissioner, may it bring the best of luck to you."

* * *

EPILOGUE

Stoan slipped out of his daytime attire and donned his comfortable robe. He entered a small chamber adjacent to his bedroom and settled himself on the floor cushions. The lights in the room dimmed automatically. He began his meditation.

The events surrounding USS _Observer_ continued to be prominent in his thoughts. He reminded himself that, officially, no one blamed him for what had happened. The Select Council had accepted the Commission's report with few comments. Instead of asking for recommendations for improvements in the Gas Giant Mapping Project, the Select Council recommended terminating the Project entirely, on the grounds that Upsilon Radiation was simply too dangerous. A shorter version of the Commission's report was released to the public. Stoan had expected that publication of the Commission's abbreviated report would diminish his reputation, but such a thing did not come to pass. Though the Commission was soon to be dissolved, he would retain his teaching position.

And Starfleet had even come to him with a new challenge. Several Humans were recently hospitalized due to a release of hazardous vapors at a refinement facility on Noame's Planet. It was unclear what had caused the release. Would Stoan be able to investigate the cause, and evaluate the safety systems, and suggest improvements, so that such a catastrophe could never occur again?

On this, Stoan meditated.

He was inclined to accept the challenge. The preliminary information available to him suggested, however, that Stoan would be more likely to succeed if he had the assistance of someone who had a good grasp of failure analysis; someone who was logical, intelligent and clever; someone with good instincts for evaluation of system weaknesses; someone who understood how Humans thought and behaved.

Stoan wondered whether Miles O'Brien was content in his posting at Deep Space Nine.


	23. Chapter 23, Postscript

Constable Odo sidled into Quark's Bar. Quark was at the counter, performing an inventory. When Odo took a seat near Quark, Quark took no notice.

"Hello, Quark."

Quark did not look up. He recognized the voice. "Constable." Quark continued with his inventory.

"How's business?"

Without stopping his inventory, Quark waved a finger at the crowds in the establishment. "You can see for yourself: things are returning to normal."

Odo glanced at the customers, then returned to face Quark. "I trust the station evacuation did not hurt your income too much."

"Oh, the loss of business was unpleasant, but I'll bounce back. Nearly all of my old customers have been in, at least once, since returning to the station. Thank you for your concern."

"Mm-hmm. Do you mind if I ask you something?"

"Go ahead."

"Did you ever get paid?"

"Paid for what?"

"For the probe? The probe you planned to steal from the USS _Observer_?"

Quark exhaled, stopped his inventory, and faced Odo.

"Somebody's been telling you tall tales. And you, it would seem, have been falling for them."

"You deny planning to steal a probe?"

"Where did you ever hear such a thing?"

"Come now, Quark," Odo spoke as if to a child. "After Commander Sisko ordered the station to be placed under quarantine, a ship requested permission to dock. The captain of that ship said he wanted to see _you_."

"I don't know what you're talking about."

"Permission to dock was refused, and the ship went on its way. It was a cargo ship. Commander Sisko and the Starfleet officers didn't recognize the ship, or its captain. But I did."

"I still don't know what you're talking about."

"The captain goes by many names, but I know him as a big player in the black market in this corner of the galaxy. His ship is known for smuggling all sorts of contraband and stolen items."

"Do tell."

"And he came here. And he wanted to see _you_."

"Perhaps he just wanted some refreshment."

Odo chortled. "Or perhaps he wanted something else, something he thought you might be able to procure for him. Something for which he would pay a very respectable price."

"You mean, one of the probes from the _Observer_."

Odo grinned. "And I suspect that he would make you an impressive offer, if you'd obtain one for him. And knowing you as I do, I thought you might insist upon some sort of advance, a _non-refundable_ advance, of course. And so I wonder, did you ever get paid?"

Quark stared at Odo. "Sometimes I can't tell when you're serious and when you're not."

"Oh, I'm serious, all right. You certainly must admit that one of those probes would have some value, some _extraordinary_ value, to one or more of the captain's interested clients."

Quark turned dead serious. "No, I don't admit that. Those probes self-destructed before the _Observer_ even got here. They were worthless! Odo, I wouldn't have even _stayed_ on Deep Space Nine if I thought those any of those probes might be _functional_!"

"Not even if the price was right? What did he offer you, Quark?"

"Nothing!"

"How much for one probe? How much for two? How much for each additional probe?"

" _Nothing!_ No one offered me anything!"

Odo nodded. "A known dealer in the black market comes to Deep Space Nine, where there is a ship holding some Upsilon Radiation-based probes. Functional or not, such probes would fetch a considerable profit on the black market. There are plenty of people out there who want to try to dissect the probe and see whether they can figure out how it worked."

"I've heard that can't be done!"

"And I've heard that there are quite a few individuals who would like to give it a try, all the same."

Quark said nothing.

Odo grinned: "So, this known dealer in the black market expresses a desire to make contact with you. And you're trying to get me to believe that all he wanted was some refreshment?"

"I'm telling you, Odo, I had no bargain, with anyone, for anything. Certainly not for a non-functional Upsilon probe. I did not communicate with that ship, at all, about anything."

"Really?" Odo feigned surprise. "What a strange thing to say, since you were the one that initiated the contact with that ship in the first place."

Quark stayed silent.

Odo continued. "Less than thirty minutes after the _Observer_ emergency began, you issued a communication to an unspecified recipient in that sector. You requested a shipment of Ryjennah, that Andorian wine."

"What's so sinister about that? I had been planning to order some new Ryjennah for days now. And my supply sources indicated a supplier was in that sector."

"Three things are very sinister about that," Odo crooned. "For one thing, the only _possible_ supplier in that sector was that black marketer who came here."

"You're mistaken."

"The second sinister thing is that the station was being evacuated. The number of people who can afford Ryjennah is small enough, but with the station evacuated, there would be no virtually _no_ _demand_ for Ryjennah, and therefore, _no need_ to re-stock Ryjennah."

"Odo, you have _obviously_ never run a business. When I am low on a commodity, I order more, even if there is no immediate demand."

"And what about the fifty liters of Ryjennah you already have in storage?" Odo smiled insincerely. "You see, that's the third sinister thing. You didn't need to re-stock _any_ Ryjennah. You already have enough for the next six months, at least."

"Odo, Odo," Quark shook his head. "You don't understand."

"Don't I? That requisition you sent for Ryjennah was just a ruse. It was code for, 'Come here, I think I can get you something you really might want.'"

"No, it was code for, 'I need some more Ryjennah!'"

"You need more, with fifty liters in storage?" Odo scoffed.

Quark started to show some irritation. "Those fifty liters, Odo, are contaminated, and that's why they are in storage! If you knew anything at all about running a bar, you'd know that Ryjennah cannot be replicated, not with good quality, anyway. And you'd also know that a recent batch of Ryjennah was flagged as contaminated. Those fifty liters in storage are all from that batch! I was going to destroy them myself, eventually; I could not serve any of that Ryjennah to customers! All I have is what's here, under my counter, and that's it. And if I wanted more Ryjennah, my only choice was to put in an order for more!" Quark looked Odo in the eye.

Eventually Odo looked away.

"Tell me this, then," Odo said, returning to looking Quark in the eye. "How did you plan to do it?"

"Do _what_?"

"Get aboard _Observer_ , steal a probe, and get back, all without being caught? Well, let me take that one point at a time. How did you plan to get aboard _Observer_?"

"I didn't!"

"That's all right, you don't need to answer that; I already know how you planned to get aboard. But how did you plan to get a probe from the ship's Locker?"

"Wait a minute! I couldn't get over to _Observer_ , even if I wanted to! Transporter beams were blocked; you know that! And there was another ship guarding _Observer_ , and it would stop anyone in any sort of craft from approaching."

"Yet someone did go over to _Observer_."

"You mean, Chief O'Brien."

"Mm-hmm. He used the _Ganges_ to go there, and then he made a spacewalk through an access."

"Just because he did it, doesn't mean _I_ could do it."

"Doesn't it? You know, I was able to get a look at the _Ganges_ after Chief O'Brien got back. And do you know what I found? I found a Shultz anchor on the port nacelle."

"And that means _what_?"

"It means that someone could have been planning to put on a stealth environmental suit, coupled it to the anchor, and rode over to the _Observer_ , undetected."

"That doesn't prove anything. I'll bet Chief O'Brien put that anchor there, as part of some sort of maintenance test."

Odo cocked his head. "Shall I ask the Chief about it, then?"

Quark seemed eager to return to his inventory. "Do what you like. But I'm telling you, Constable, that I did not go over to the _Observer_."

"I know." Odo spoke coolly. "I know you didn't go. Your buyer wasn't able to come here, so you weren't able to offload a stolen probe, so there was no _reason_ for you to go. What I want to know is, what was your plan, exactly?"

Quark tried to change the subject. "I really have enjoyed our conversation, but I have some things I need to do, so if you'll excuse me."

Odo leaned back. "All right, I know you're busy. But let me just tell you a few things before I leave." Odo leaned close to Quark, and lowered his voice. "I know where you keep your environmental suit. I know about its stealth capabilities. I know where you've stored the two dummy probes that you planned to switch for the real probes. I know how you made them. I know where you keep the field projectors that you would use to try to move a probe out of the _Observer's_ Locker. I know how you tried to conduct surveillance of Chief O'Brien when he was busy with investigation. I know how you communicated with the black market captain. I know that you specifically told him that you would not guarantee the probe's functionality. And I know that certain payment conduits were set up within minutes of you making contact."

Quark was poker-faced. "None of that is true. None of it."

"So you say."

"None. Of. It."

"Enjoy the rest of your day, Quark." Odo rose and exited Quark's Bar. With no break in his stride, Odo ambled out of view of the Bar and entered a lift. He gave the lift a verbal instruction. The lift took Odo away from the Promenade at once. Moments later, the lift stopped, and Odo stepped onto a deserted deck. Odo looked left, then right, then proceeded down a short corridor, which ended with an alcove.

Chief O'Brien was in the alcove, reassembling an environmental junction.

Odo stood next to O'Brien. "Hello, Chief."

"Hello, Constable. If you could wait just a moment, I have to replace this housing." As he said those words, O'Brien did just that. "There. Done." O'Brien stood and brushed off his uniform. "What did you learn?"

Odo grinned. "Quark admitted nothing."

"That's no surprise."

"And for what it's worth, I think he told me quite a few things that were true."

"That _is_ a surprise."

"Mm-hmm. But he also told me at least two lies. He denied that he _considered_ sneaking onto _Observer_ and stealing a probe; and he denied that his request for more of that Andorian wine was just a ruse, when in fact it was a request to explore negotiation for the sale of a probe that he would steal." Odo smirked. "Quark will pay for those lies."

"Pay, how?"

"Never mind; he will pay dearly, and he has only himself to blame. Now, although Quark was _exploring_ a possible sale of a probe, I don't think it went any further than that. I don't think Quark had the first idea how he would be able to _actually_ steal a probe. When his potential buyer was refused access to the station, he dropped the idea entirely."

O'Brien smirked. "Did you mention that you knew about some dummy probes?"

"Yes. No reaction."

"I assume you mentioned that you knew about a stealth environmental suit?"

"I did. Again, no reaction. And with field projectors, no reaction."

"Did you mention the Schultz anchor on the _Ganges_ nacelle?"

"Quark said that you had probably put it there."

"Which I did." O'Brien chuckled.

"I tried to bluff Quark in other ways, as we discussed. The bluff was fairly effective, I must say. Quark now probably thinks there _are_ dummy probes and a stealth suit somewhere on the station! I've seen how he reacts to questioning like that. If he had acted indignantly, belittling the scheme we were laying out as amateurish, then I would be inclined to think that he _was_ planning a heist, one less amateurish."

"I take it he reacted in some other way, other than indignantly."

"He did. He simply took it all in and issued a simple denial. He seemed to be wondering _who_ might have fabricated some dummy probes, and _who_ might have a stealth environmental suit. In my judgment, that reaction suggested to me that he was most concerned _that he was being set up_ to take the blame for the actions of others."

"Meaning that he was probably _not_ planning to steal a probe. But he was afraid he might be falsely blamed for plotting to do that very thing."

Odo nodded. "That is most likely, I would say. Mind you, I am loathe ever to refer to Quark as 'innocent'; but it seems to me that some of his actions, though suspicious, do not add up to any real threat of actual mischief."

"Well, when I found Quark had tried to bypass the security on my holodeck simulations, I had to wonder what he was up to, if anything. Thanks, Constable, for helping me feel a little more at ease."

"My pleasure."

Back in Quark's Bar, Quark noticed that Rom had returned from an errand. Rom carried a sealed container under one arm.

"Rom!" Quark called. "Come here!"

Rom placed his container in a corner and hustled over to the counter.

"I got the table coverings you wanted, Brother!" Rom reported excitedly. "The dealer on Bajor had only eight remaining, and I got them all, at a good price!"

Quark was unimpressed. "Good, Rom, that's good. But I have another errand for you."

"What is it, Brother?"

Quark lowered his voice. "Go down into storage and find our cache of Ryjennah, and have it destroyed."

Rom was not sure he had heard correctly. "Brother?"

"We have fifty liters of Ryjennah in storage. All of it is contaminated. We cannot serve it to customers. Our only option is to dispose of it. So have it destroyed. And do it quietly."

"But, Brother! That Ryjennah was very costly!"

"I know how expensive it was."

"And we are just going to destroy it?"

"We have no choice."

"But, Brother, how do we know it was contaminated?"

"It just is."

"But I signed for the shipment myself, not long ago! I performed a full scan! I remember! The quality was excellent! There was nothing wrong with it!"

"Well, apparently the scans missed something. I've learned that that particular batch is no good."

"That cannot be! Shall I find that scan for you?"

Quark was losing patience. "Rom, get down to storage and dispose of that Ryjennah!"

Rom quivered. "Brother, are you going to hold me responsible for overlooking a defect in the product?"

"No, Rom. Do not worry. I am not going to blame you."

"Are we going to blame the dealer who sold it to us?"

"No. We accepted the product after examining it, and that absolves the dealer."

"If I may ask, then, Brother: who is going to pay for the loss of all of this Ryjennah?"

Quark scowled. "I know the one who ought to pay. He is the one who is _forcing_ me to take this loss, in order to _prove_ my innocence. And one of these days, I am going to make him pay."


	24. Chapter 24: Notes

For a follow-up story involving some of the same characters, see "Consequences," published 1 July 2017. "Consequences" is considerably more brief than "Failure Analysis."

\- DH


End file.
